Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul101
Ah, I hate writing long posts like this on a phone... apologies in advance for the brevity. It's a little complicated, so I'm sure I'll miss details.
It's not trading off 6s for 3s, that wouldn't make any sense. 3s are worth less than 6s, and have an equal chance of snaking. It's actually all about the 2s.
Long answer: I really want to put that 2 in either the centre or left zone. This is a winning play when there are exactly two more in Rounds 6-8 and none in Round 9 (11%, as happened). Furthermore, and more importantly, let's say you play those 5s to the left, leaving 6s open. Then you get three or more 2s in Rounds 6-8 (47%). Where do they go? The only places to connect them directly shut off 6s, so you have to choose between having THREE lone 2s, or shutting off snaking 6s anyway (AND only 3-zoning 6s or 3s).
Short answer: Dynasty setup sucks with only one 2 from Rounds 1-4. The only good place to connect extra 2s is in the bottom-left corner. 2s are more important than 6s here, because our other chains are so strong. Also, as you pointed out, we leave 3s open, so can't lose THAT much. Also, 6s only snake 23% anyway.
What you said is all understandable. It is not something I'd be able to bring myself to do, but I get that you are making a statistically informed decision. Just one beyond where my game is.
I like looking over your games, and I did think 2s must have had a big role there. It just seemed that your first 2 in the west could make something like a 23XXX in rack 7 a big problem, with both the 2 and the 3 wanting the centre spot.
Was that the potential rack 3 oops you were referring to? The only 2 going in the west zone?
Thx