i'm almost positive if you ran the expected value of the allins between my friend and I in poker (we've been playing regularly for 6 or 7 years), the difference would be statistically significant at like a .001 level

I don't belive in luck but I do belive in uncertainty. So in a poker All In setting, no I don't think anyone can be luckier than anyone else because the underlying distributions are fully quantifiable (assuming a fair game). I.e. I don't think anyone can be lucky when flipping coins. Luck is simply running above expectations.

In the real world I do think there's "luck" because the underlying distributions cannot be known.

I am serious. I am extremely unlucky. Always have been. I pretty much don't talk about it because, well, you'll see from the responses about to come.

quantum luck

DING DING DING DING DING

The obvious but unsatisfying answer to this, but I think it's probably correct, is just that the "long run" is actually way longer than is comfortable.

I stopped tracking my aipf hands in tourneys, but did for a long time. I was winning less than 30% and I don't shove light. I went through a stretch of losing 12 out of 15 AA<KK shoves.

i think that its possible that people through the force of their consciousness can 'will' things

and what results may seem like luck

but its not actually luck

I was going to try to say something like this but I decided that it's not really what people mean by luck, even if it does explain some of what people do attribute to luck, quite possibly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Secret_%282006_film%29

During current Razz session you were dealt 34 hands and:
- saw fourth street 6 times (17%)
- saw fifth street 3 times (8%)
- saw sixth street 1 times (2%)
- reached showdown 0 times (0%)
Pots won at showdown - 0 of 0 (0%)
Pots won without showdown - 3

i hate razz

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $178.10
Hero (BTN/SB): $181.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with T T
Hero raises to $2, BB raises to $178.10 all in, Hero calls $176.10

Flop: ($356.20) T 2 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: ($356.20) K (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($356.20) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)

so is statistical significance wrong? or is it the 1/1000 chance that he's just really unlucky

yah I completely agree with you (I'm not the unlucky one)

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BB: $331.60
Hero (BTN/SB): $134.05

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN/SB with 5 J
Hero raises to $2, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.00) K 2 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($10.00) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $22, BB calls $22

River: ($54.00) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $81, BB calls $81

Final Pot: $216.00
BB mucks K T
Hero shows 5 J (two pair, Jacks and Fives)
Hero wins $215.50
(Rake: $0.50)

first hand at the table. Cool?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $26.75
BTN: $16.95
SB: $64.85
Hero (BB): $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with T J
1 fold, BTN raises to $0.75, SB raises to $2.50, Hero raises to $5