11. ...Nbd7 seems like a very probable moove aorn. I intend to reply with
12. Qb3, and while I expect rtspurs to just reply
12. ...Qe7, I got a bit busy analyzing
12. ...Nxe5.
this move might never happen and my analysis might be lol-wrong, but let's do this anyway:
11. ...Nbd7 12. Qb3 Nxe5 13. dxe5 Bxc3
So I have two choices here,
A - 14. bxc3
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14. bxc3 breaks my pawns on the queenside, so I would better have smth to show for it.
14. ..Nd7 15. Rad1 Qc7. All other moves look bad:
15. ...Qe7 16. Qxb7, and the black Knight is pinned.
15. ...b6 16. Bxe6 fxe6 17. Qxe6+ Rf7 18. Qc6 (threatening 19. e6) ...Rc8 19. Qd5
and white wins bc 20. e6 cannot be avoided.
So
15. ...Qc7 it is. The e5 pawn is hanging and I have no way of protecting it. So
16. Bxe6 is more or less forced.
It does not win outright now, as the black Knight will be unpinned after
16. ...fxe6 17. Qxe6 Rf7. 18. Bd4 fails bc of 18. ...c5, so it is either 18. Rd6 or 18. Bf4, and 18. Bf4 blocks my f-pawn, which will delay my f4-f5 plan.
18. Rd6 Nf8 (if 18. ...Rad8, then 19. Rfd1 and White is threatening 20. e6 and 20. Bxh6; the white pawn in e5 is untouchable).
19. Qg4 Ng6. Now 20 Rxg6 Bxg6 21. Qxg6 Qxe5 22. Bxd4 Qe7 seems bad for White because Black is playing Qg5 next:
.
So
20. f4:
My plan is ofc to f4-f5, but I need to protect the pawn in e5 first. This can be done by dislodging the knight in g6, so Black may attack it a second time (in case I play f5) with
20. ...Re8. Again, I do not think taking twice in g6 works, because I cannot push f5 without losing my e5 pawn.
I could now play Rfd1, but I think
21. Qg3 is better.
I think I have full compensation there. My plan of h4, h5 and f5 is admittedly very slow but Black's pieces are rather awkwardly placed and may not be able to prevent this plan.
I guess Black could play 20. ...Re7. This would allow him to double the rocks on the e-file. However, I can play 21. c4, which would allow me to bring my bishop to d4 in order to protect in d5 again (obviously, had I played Bd4 without c4, Black would have run me out with ...c5).
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A - 14. Qxc3
14. ...Nd7 15. Rad1 Qc7 16. Rd6 Rfd8. Now, Black can play ...Nf8 next, so 17. Qb3 is a bit useless. Hence,
17. Rfd1 Nf8 18. Qe1.
The plan is to play Qg3 and then to push the f-pawn. Seems like I get to push the plan for free without having to sacrifice anything (compare this to 14. bxc3) but now Black has a queenside pawn majority and will probably form a passed Pawn during the endgame (the broken pawn structure from the 14. bxc3 variation makes that difficult, although the pawns will be weaker in that variation).
At the moment, I still lean towards 14. Qxc3, but I am not sure.
Of course, all of this wil be moot when rtspurs plays 11. ...Nbd7 12. Qb3 Qe7