Harry Potter 4 "The Battle Of Pogwarts" MishMash Game Thread

[captain binkles]

Another important thing to note this game which suggests that his wolf game is still similar to his pokemon wolf game:

He doesn't interact with a single known wolf this game (outside of Vix at the very end). His only mention of a known wolf is Hifi after she lolcatted. So Magic didn't mention:

Biggerboat
Andynan
Flytrap
JimHalpert
VMF

He mentioned Hifi in passing

And he had one post directed at Vixticator.

That's it.

With that in mind we can start looking at other players he didn't mention and give them some wolf points by proxy in my opinion.

[Potterwatch]

Captain Binkles, any reason why you focused on magic_gazz and VMF?

There's also Flytrap, Jim Halpert, and Vixticator. That's a lot of wolves who died today!

[Potterwatch]

Tonight, I report on the deaths of those who died on the previous night: Night 2.

Originally Posted by JK Rowling

Forsythio was very busy chatting with friends and asking questions, forgetting to put basic protection around himself. He was caught by surprise and never stood a chance.

This kill may have been from a village vigilante. It might have been a wolf kill. Maybe it was a neutral kill. I don't know. It's regrettable that Slughorn died, however, perhaps somebody took the advice of CPHoya to kill Forsythio.

Originally Posted by JK Rowling

Rebonkulous was preparing the lesson for tomorrow when a toadlike woman snuck up on him, pointed her wand and yelled Evanesco!!

Important: I don't believe anybody pointed out that Dolores Umbridge made this kill. I will be reviewing Rebonkulous' posts carefully to see why Umbridge may have wanted him dead.

Originally Posted by JK Rowling

bsball was looking through Hufflepuff records when he was surrounded by unfriendly wizards. "You cannot hurt me", he said. But then one of them stepped forward. And he certainly could.

This was the Death Eater kill. I will be reviewing bsball's posts carefully to see why he was killed.

Originally Posted by JK Rowling

Hibiscus was a friendly odd looking girl, but quite careless too. She walked around in shady places of the Pogwarts building and was caught by surprise from behind.

This looks like an evil kill. I will be reviewing hibiscus' posts carefully to see why she was killed.

[Potterwatch]

Dolores Umbridge is a toadlike woman, and I believe she killed Reonkulous.

It goes without saying that Umbridge isn't on the village side.

[Potterwatch]

In Memory of Rebonkulous

I am quoting the two most important parts of Rebonkulous. There must have been a reason why Dolores Umbridge, who is likely part of the wolf team, wanted him dead.

Originally Posted by rebonkulous

if I'm seer without a n0 I peeked aksdal villager
if I'm a seer with a n0 I peeked necro villager and luckay wolf
if I'm an even seer I have no peek yet
if I'm an odd seer I peeked vlad villager
if I'm a conditional seer wahoopride is full of garbage

Originally Posted by rebonkulous

my peek may have been randed

It may have been because the wolves thought rebonkulous was telling the truth. I'm thinking that the most likely situation when discussing killing rebonkulous is:

"Rebonkulous is a seer without a n0. On night one, he peeked aksdal villager. This is further believable because he claims his peek may have been randed."

[Potterwatch]

In Memory of Bsball

Bsball was killed on night 2 by Death Eaters.

Originally Posted by bsball8806

FYI I got a n0 peek and xxaces is a villager. He is not a godfather.

I post this because I only got a n0 peek. No one protect me. For serious.

xxaces is clearly a villager.

Originally Posted by bsball8806

So, if I got a peek last night, which I clearly didn't because I only got a n0 peek, wahoopride is a villager. It is possible that he is a godfather (I say this only through my knowledge of Harry Potter lore, and it does not mean he is "likely" a godfather, only that he can't be ruled out as one).

Wahoopride is likely a villager too. The wolves may not have believed bsball in saying "I only got a n0 peek."

[Potterwatch]

In memory of hibiscus

I don't see any particular reason for why she was hunted down on n2. As she mentions:

Originally Posted by hibiscus

Hi all, I've read mod posts and searched for posts about me, but I'm way behind.

I suppose it is possible that this was a village vig kill. The good news is, hibiscus can continue to post and we can be confident that she is good.

[Potterwatch]

In Memory of Forsythio

Forsythio was killed on night 2, and it was likely by a villager vigilante given how CPHoya was speaking about how Forsythio would be a good target as the last guest on my show.

Originally Posted by Forsythio

Last night, I put a small amount of effort into trying to determine if Captain Binkles is actually a villager, or is just trying to imitate his villa style. Compared to his contributions to the pokemon game, I would say there is marginally less analysis and quantity. Nonetheless, he put in a great amount of time and effort on a few reads, and on a d1 with 3.5k posts, that is not something to be scoffed at. As of right now I certainly do not endorse his lynch. He’s going to stay around and keep contributing and if villa, be extremely helpful, and if wolf, generate ridic spew. I don’t think he is very much, if at all, greater than rand to be a wolf, and I don’t remember any cases on him that were at all concrete. Imo, he shouldn’t be on the table today.

My villa list from yesterday is something like: luckayluck, aksdal, donk4, switch, pockets, akson (effort level read). I’d also put gad at villager-y, but that’s what I said the last time he was a wolf, so I’m not putting a great amount of strength behind it. I don’t have any remarkable wolf reads, jim seemed a bit weird though, and I may just be saying that because everyone else was. I admit it’s not an original thought, but after ppl were talking about it I was like, yeah I guess I could see that. Also, cracked made some pretty wolfy posts when responding to D4. If I make it back before EoD, I’ll probably be sponging luckay. In the meantime, vixticator, as the second best wagon on d1, in case ppl end up deciding to resolve wagons.

It is worth mentioning that it is possible that Forsythio is correct on all counts in the bolded area. He mentioned that Jim was weird and he wanted to lynch vixticator. All his villagers seem reasonable.

It is a shame that Forsythio's game was ended early, on a day that he had limited time to post. We at Potterwatch see your departure off sadly.

[Potterwatch]

Day 3 Deaths

Potterwatch salutes the continued hard work of jjhender. Day 3 was a big win for the village, with 5 village deaths, 1 neutral death, and 6 wolf deaths. Of course, the 6th wolf death (VarianceMinefield) was unearned and unexpected, but if evil isn't fighting fair, we'll take it.

Originally Posted by jjhender

I think this is right. I had it up to date through the Silman/JH duel before I left work. If I missed something let me know.

Some of these day 3 deaths on the village side were completely senseless. YouKnowWho agreed to a duel with a guaranteed villager, TimeLady. Derm entered a duel with as a weak apprentice wizard with vixticator, an evil master duelist.

That aside though, CPHoya was killed through unknown means during the first ITA (Apparently, so important that the wolves used both the Dark Mark AND a silent Avada Kedavra to kill him!). He will be reviewed, though I believe most of his contributions are available if you recorded last night's Potterwatch.

J.D. was fake peeked wolf by Willd. Let us at Potterwatch remind you that this is a team game and being truthful is extremely important. J.D.'s game was ended abruptly and unexpectedly and his last thoughts will be reviewed.

The Moocher was shot by the despicable death eater magic_gazz. The Moocher was generally regarded as a villager. I'm sure that magic_gazz discussed shooting The Moocher in wolfchat, surely it must have been an important enough matter to out yourself in a public shooting on Moocher. Moocher's thoughts will be reviewed in detail as well.

[captain binkles]

Nice work sir! It's great to see you compile a lot of this data in the manner you have.

Originally Posted by Potterwatch

Captain Binkles, any reason why you focused on magic_gazz and VMF?

There's also Flytrap, Jim Halpert, and Vixticator. That's a lot of wolves who died today!

I have already done a re-read of flytrap for spew. I'll try and link the post for you in a moment. TheNothing also did a quick re-read of him.

JimHalpert I've read for why he's spewed me villager, I am yet to do a full re-read of him, but it is on my to-do list tonight.

Vixticator I plan on getting around to as well, I'm a little bit daunted because he posted 5763835 times.

Magic and VMF are more natural targets for me because they've had less posts and I think may be more likely to 'spew'. Particularly Magic. Rest assured that they are all on my list though

Originally Posted by Potterwatch

In Memory of Rebonkulous

I am quoting the two most important parts of Rebonkulous. There must have been a reason why Dolores Umbridge, who is likely part of the wolf team, wanted him dead.





It may have been because the wolves thought rebonkulous was telling the truth. I'm thinking that the most likely situation when discussing killing rebonkulous is:

"Rebonkulous is a seer without a n0. On night one, he peeked aksdal villager. This is further believable because he claims his peek may have been randed."

This is a good point, although could you explain for me why you think that the "n0 peek being randed" thing makes it more likely that the Aksdal = villa is the one to trust? Rebonk peeking necro on n0 seems like a peek that would naturally be randed rather than chosen to me.

Originally Posted by Potterwatch

In Memory of Bsball

Bsball was killed on night 2 by Death Eaters.



xxaces is clearly a villager.



Wahoopride is likely a villager too. The wolves may not have believed bsball in saying "I only got a n0 peek."

I believe that Magic spewed Wahoop villager while he was with us, so this fits in with what we know quite well

Originally Posted by Potterwatch

In Memory of Forsythio

Forsythio was killed on night 2, and it was likely by a villager vigilante given how CPHoya was speaking about how Forsythio would be a good target as the last guest on my show.



It is worth mentioning that it is possible that Forsythio is correct on all counts in the bolded area. He mentioned that Jim was weird and he wanted to lynch vixticator. All his villagers seem reasonable.

It is a shame that Forsythio's game was ended early, on a day that he had limited time to post. We at Potterwatch see your departure off sadly.

Again I think all of his villagers seem somewhere between reasonable and likely. With the possible exception of Donk in my mind, but I'm basing that off very little.

Why do you think he wasn't also killed for his first paragraph?

[Potterwatch]

In Memory of J.D.

J.D. was basically robbed of life due to Willd.

Originally Posted by Willd

Why would I try to blame someone else for something that was entirely my fault? I screwed up and a villager died because of it, obviously I'm culpable for that. It doesn't mean I'm a wolf though.

Originally Posted by J.D.

Between the random night events happening (although I doubt it happens again) and my possible work shcedule, getting a vote in now is the best I can do.

As far as J.D. goes, who knows what great things he was destined to do? Potterwatch would like to take a moment to mourn the tragic death of J.D., who through false information provided from Willd, was killed.

Whether or not Willd is evil is of course unknown, but what he did is clearly bad. LuckayLuck and Larry Legend both also have gone with crazy schemes, but at least the two of them retracted their information so that no harm could come to those they accused. It is this reporter's opinion that the truth is the village's greatest weapon.

[Potterwatch]

Originally Posted by captain binkles

Why do you think he (Forsythio) wasn't also killed for his first paragraph?

Well, I don't think Forsythio was even killed for that post because I suspect he was killed by a village vigilante. But the paragraph just states "I think captain binkles is villagery for now, to be determined later" which is nothing definitive.

[Potterwatch]

In Memory of CPHoya

The wolves really wanted him gone and gone fast. They used the Dark Mark (+10% Unforgivable Spells) and silent Avada Kedavra to kill him quickly as soon as they could - in ITA1 of Day 3.

In this reporter's opinion, the wolves knew CPHoya was a strong player and they knew he was onto something. They might have been afraid of him analyzing the extra wolves who were dead. CPHoya was even a weak role, yet the wolves rolled out everything they could to cut him down.

Originally Posted by CPHoya

It gives credence to CPHoya's video. He cleared 10 villagers with it. I think he was right on every call. For reference, that's this:

Originally Posted by CPHoya

Cliffs:

Spew indicates that the following are probably villagers, in approximately descending order of my confidence in the read:

FCBLComish
LarryLegend
swiitch
tehvader
vyk
PkrForALivin
CPHoya
binkles
mac
tehtoes

I'm relatively confident in all of those. Hopefully they're good.

With regard to wolves, I think the only useful wolf spew is that necro is somewhat more likely to be a wolf than he was earlier.

I hope nobody tries to target any of those players for attacks or killing. If they do, they better have a good reason.

Originally Posted by CPHoya

I'm limited to one video so I'll try to just do a wolf analysis. Give me some time to read stuff though. My immediate instinct is the UTRs here are probably wolves, especially where it's out of character.

Forsythio leaps immediately to mind.

I think CPHoya was also correct in his instinct to go after the UTRs, particular where out of character. He was incorrect on Forsythio, but perhaps much of the wolf team lies UTR.

CPHoya, you made the wizarding world a safer place with your sharp mind. Thank you for protecting and defending many wizards, likely correctly.

[captain binkles]

Here is my re-read of Flytrap, there is something that I think is potentially important here that I'll address in my next post (for dramatic effect, ldo). Click through on the quote to see what I quoted.

---

Originally Posted by captain binkles

Venus Fly Trap

Heree is where I re-read flytrap for spew. This is probably long



Schu Villa



CDL Villa, just as a benchmark



This list has I believe 4 villagers on it



This is to Moocher, I believe the next few interactions clear moocher a ton.





So yeah, Moocher Villager





This is weird, I mean PFAL is pretty spewed clear anyway, I'm not sure what this means for Wizard though.



Swiitch Villa



More Moocher villageriness



Tehtoes Villagery
Silman Wolfy



More softish defense of Silman.



Emphasis on most people finding him villagery, I think this is more (unnecessary) villa points for schu and swiitch



I've been kinda sketchball on Gad all game, and I don't want my own read to get in the way here. I'm similarly sketchy on 425kid for the "if you're a villager, if you're a wolf" thought.



This is directed to Mac. Curious that he says 'your team'.



TL Villa



This is a good benchmark for how he may treat villagers



I think this looks kinda bad for VMF



Again, kinda a w/w interaction with VMF imo. The conversation is kinda forced and the explanation of the wolf lean doesn't go into great depth.



Larry Villa



A question directed to somebody else about VMF. I think this is often how wolves talk to villagers about other wolves.





More VMF stuff. Note that he says the Larry wagon is 'okay'.



wtf is this post? Larry is sooooo clear after this it's ridiculous.

It also probably means the wolves do have votebuyers and stuff.



Hmm, this looks good for VMF. I dunno if wolf flytrap really bothers to legilimens wolf VMF in this spot. I'll have to reconsider my read of VMF.



Interesting that Master was a puppet or w/e





More stuff about Larry.

I think Youngungs having this convo with him deserves villa points.









I think this is also kinda bad for Silman. The 'really take a close look at him', etc. It isn't how he talked about either Axel or Larry on day 1.







Larry is a villagerrrrrrrrrrrr la la la



'far from clear' compared with 'okay to wagon' is an interesting differentiation. I think JD needs some heat today.



Again, 'should be watched closely' rather than 'okay with a wagon'. Fnoord should indeed be watched closely today.



XXA is a peeked villager, and flytrap says that he 'looks really wolfy' and that he 'can die no questions asked'. Again, this fits in with the baseline explanation of how he's been treating villagers and wolves.



This also fits in with clearing VMF.





This kinda looks bad for Vlad imo, in a similar way Silman looks bad.



Kruze is probably a villager, wolves probably know how easy a mislynch candidate he often is.



How he reacts to the claim of swiitch = wolf















These are his interactions with Necro. I think they're w/neutral more often than w/w, but I'm not entirely sure.



How he reacts to Larry's claim. It's a bit more skeptical which would imply that Swiitch is a villager from Luckay's "claim".



I think this fits in with Necro being neutral.

----

Cliffs:

I think the following people look clear(er):
Larry Legend
Swiitch
TL
Schu_22
XXA
The Moocher
Younguns
Kruze
Tehtoes
VMF


I think the following people look worse:
JD
Fnoord
Silman

[captain binkles]

Okay, what I think is potentially important to note here is the interactions between Flytrap and VMF. I initially had them as likely w/w, and the only thing that made me retract that was that Flytrap cast a Legilimens on VMF during the day.

I hope you don't mind me stealing your lovely blue colour for this next bit River:

We now have proof that a wolf has cast legilimens upon another wolf