Originally Posted by Beck Novo
Final thoughts for those still confused. Take these as you may.
Once you lynch through my wolves, I think the game is over. Like, unless the wolves went all out on the D1 bus or one of monstr, Lissa, Monte, Benji, or Don is just having a field day with their respective toan and contributions, then the game is a lock.
Beck - Seer, wolf slayer.
NGL - Peeked villager n0.
gambit - Peeked villager n1.
Monte - Has been consistently in-thread and handled me yesterday as I think he would were he a villager -- with an appropriate amount of skepticism but a willingness to listen. I think he skews too far to one side of the spectrum were he a wolf. He also has a history of trying to pocket me early when he's a wolf and he has not done that here.
Don - Free-flowing and care-free. Mostly a toan read more than anything else, but as Monte and Lissa believe he's a villager, I do, too.
irtm - I always found his posting to be villagery, but seeing UFO on irtm's D1 wagon (when villager!knights) was the counter, as well as Sun and sooted, both of which i believe are wolves, it makes sense that irtm is a villager. Unless the wolves wanted to bus early... But I doubt that.
Lissa - I'm notoriously bad at reading Lissa, but Monte says she's a villager, and all in all Lissa has been active and thoughtful in her posts, continuously contributing. I like her posts on Mor in retrospect (what wolf meta clears a villager) and she's handled both EOD's like I would expect her to as a villager -- kinda indecisive as it nears, but definitive at the end. She fell onto knights and onto Mor like I would expect here to.
Benji - What i like most about Benji is how he navigated around gambit and I being wagons yesterday. Unless he was blatantly disrupting his fellow wolves' pushes (UFO, sooted, and Sun have all pushed me extensively), then he's probably not a wolf. I like his toan. I like his contributions. He feels agenda-less. He's also continued to post and solve and hasn't given up like the four at the bottom of my list.
monstr - Have said it a few times, but I think this is villager!monstr. He's been reserved and collected in his posting, but thoughtful all the same. Reactive more than proactive. When he's a wolf he tends to be abrasive and power-wolf lynches through. Haven't seen much of that. He also plays heavy on the "Beck cannot read me" card when he's a wolf, it's pretty awkward, and I've caught him for it before. Unless he's cooled from 100% to 0% on that read, he's probably just a villager.
Sun - I respect his persistence but if Sun is half as good as everyone says he is, were he actually a villager he would be smart enough to not HC Seer with ten minuted left until EOD. That's a selfish mistake were he a villager, at best. He could have easily outed any Seer and that's exactly what he wanted to do, bait a HC. Him saying anything different is a lie. Further, as gambit has said, this isn't typical game-solving Sun. I'll take gambit's word on that.
sooted - Has had no impression on the game, almost at all. I called him out early and since he has called me a wolf for no reason. I tried to engage him yesterday and he asked me the same question without first answering mine, then dipped. He has yet to answer it. I feinted a wolf peek on him this morning and he reacted terribly, then dipped. Since he has dicked around the thread pretending I guess to not know what's going on. There's no way someone on POG is that oblivious as a villager. He's a wolf.
Suga - Has had no impression on the game beyond wolf reading fraley. Fraley is now a flipped villager. Most importantly, Suga was fraley's n0 wolf peek, so with his death, Suga should be outed. The only alternative is the wolves FPS'd the fraley kill knowing he had an incorrect peek on Suga, to implicate Suga... But why? Suga was well within the POE -- it's a waste to do that while knowingly letting the Seer live another night. Suga is a wolf, especially after his complete lack of participation today.
hUFO - Peeked wolf n2.
I would be ridiculously surprised if any of Suga, sooted, or Sun are villagers. None have made an extended effort to solve this game (comparatively) and none have made an effort to adjust their worldview in light of all ofthe information I've provided them. They seem annoyed more than excited. Regardless, at least two of those in orange are wolves. Start there.
That's that. I'll be in and out till EOD, please ask questions.
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