Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
New Pog
Thunderdome Drive
Poggle Park
September 25, 2021
10:03pm
Enty was not well, and he knew it. His old life was haunting him. It was a life he escaped from and tried desperately to burn from his memory many years ago. He thought he had been able to move passed it, wipe the slate clean, and advance fruitfully in a new, more legitimate direction. It had been over a decade since he departed from his gangster lifestyle and founded his own newsletter which grew into an international media conglomerate with unparalleled success. He had almost begun to forget that he was ever even in a gang, that he had ever committed crimes, caused suffering, and destroyed lives. Then those damn lost reports were found and his nightmarish past began to corrupt his mind, and with every frightening flashback his sanity slipped further away.
Enty hoped he could find sanctuary from the traumas of his past in the festivities being held at Poggle Park. Tonight the city was celebrating its founding with a raucous party filled with brotherly love. For awhile it seemed to help and as Enty enjoyed the cotton candy, uplifting music, and beautiful dancing poggettes, his mood improved and he felt at peace. He was having more fun than he'd had in months and didn’t want it to end so he stayed for the fireworks show that would close the evening. But once the fireworks rang out like gunfire the violent pangs in his head returned, the fatigue set in, and just before his vision failed him he knew he should have called it quits while he was ahead...
Animalem18 crouches behind a car door and fires rapidly at the masked thugs in the distance as their bullets whiz by, barely missing him. Enty, hiding behind a mail bin, looks on in horror as Animalem18 exchanges fires with Ibavly’s notorious Wolf Pack. Animalem18, realizing the danger of the situation, turns to Enty and urges his retreat…
Animalem18: ENTY, GET OUT OF HERE NOW!
Enty: No way! I’m not leaving you! We can’t defeat Ibavly without you!
Animalem18: THAT'S AN ORDER ENTY! I NEED YOU TO DO WHAT YOU'RE TOLD! I DON'T NEED A HE-
As Animalem18 took two shots to the chest and collapsed, it became clear to Enty that a hero was exactly what he needed. Enty dove to his wounded comrade, dragged him into the backseat of the car, jumped to the front seat, and sped off as a rain of gunfire from Ibavly’s Wolf Pack shattered the windshield.
They arrived at an abandoned warehouse a few minutes later. On their way there Enty put in a call to The Administrator, who immediately deployed paramedics to their location. Animalem18 lies on the warehouse floor with Enty by his side, waiting in silence for the aid that won’t come in time.
Animalem18: I’ve lost too much blood Enty. I’m cold… real cold.
Enty: Nah, you’re fine. Just hang in there a little bit longer. They’ll be here any second now.
Animalem18: Sorry Enty, but I’m through. You’re not though. You’ve still got a chance to turn things around and make right. **** Ibavly, **** Homer, and **** the Gangs of New Pog! Get out while you’re young kid, this isn’t a way to live, this is a way to… to… to…
Animalem18 spent his last breath imploring Enty to abandon the only family he’d ever known. Enty stared at Animalem18’s lifeless body in shock. For a moment he tried to grasp the meaning of his dying words, but those thoughts were quickly overshadowed by a great feeling of emptiness and despair at the loss of his idol.
Enty: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Click.
Anchorwoman: Good evening, New Pog. I am Anita Lynche and this is CR Peak News. Tonight: New Pog hosts this year’s Annual Trivia Championship, City Council institutes a sheep curfew to protect them from wolves, and the New Pog Thunderdome has finally finished its renovations and will be re-opening tomorrow.
But first we are going to continue our nightly series of The Lost Reports with the memos Detective Homer received August 3rd, 2011:
I basically locked that in after reading the thread Thursday night, and was convinced her peeks were:
Anarchist wolf
FV villa
Hence my post Friday, drawing every conclusion possible about anarchist/wolf wagon
I was perfectly convinced it was Anarchist wolf peek, notably because:
She was relentless in keeping him as the most-wanted wolf in her lists from D1P2
From reading her previous games, I knew she had only played twice; both times with Anarchist and Sanga. IF she’s a noob seer, it’s maybe expected to peek one of them n0
Bob pointed out something very seerish about her on Thursday, and she simultaneously posted VERY seerish words wrt to FV/villa on Thursday.
I felt stupid after anarchist flipped villa. But then she flips seer?!?!
So….taking some steps back:
Note: I’m at work and do NOT have the thread in front of me, so I have not reread for peeks and I cannot give accurate quotes atm, but a few thoughts:
the catalyst for my animal=seer conclusion was the bobman post below. Note that he had been super clearing animal from D1P2. Then on Thursday, he has a post where he “hmmms” her a bit over her re-eval on filthy from D2P1
For me, seeing ANY type of obvious re-eval on Monday, would set off seer flags. I didn’t catch Animal’s reversal on P1, but it’s interesting that bob not only caught it, but didn’t think it could be seery, and waited till Thursday to post about it.
Question: if one of your strongest villa leans (if not THE strongest) has a sudden reversal on a Monday, wouldn’t you suspect them of being seer? And at the very least, wouldn’t you NOT want to call them out itt for a while?
I KNOW animal had some strong language wrt to FV being villa. Combined w/ Bob’s discovery of her D2P1 post, I don’t think anyone is going to bother arguing about a FV = villa peek. So just focusing on who she may have peeked n0:
a. Not a wolf imo
b. Possibly Sanga, from her constant glowing reviews of him PLUS the theory that she would n0 peek someone she had experience with
c. Possibly Luckay, bc I could imagine her sponging a lock villager for safety
d. Possibly BOB, bc I definitely remember seeing him land at the TOP of her villa list on the first Wed(or Thurs) of the game
Now a bit on why BOB is probably not the peek and why BOB is probably a wolf:
Up until Thursday, I would’ve leaned Bob villa peek (if not anarchist wolf). However: Animal gives a reeval of Bob on Thursday and moves him from one of her top villa positions to “second wolfiest player” and states that she would lynch him Friday if there was momentum.
I still can’t believe that Bob would post something like that about his top villager lean, without recognizing how blatantly seery it is. “why would he point it out itt though as a wolf? He can just nk her instead” It’s a good question, but:
With no wolf chat, if/when a wolf thinks he’s found the seer, there is benefit to trying to alert his fellow wolves. Namely:
Wolves may have been the primary ones driving an FV mislynch
Imagine: Wolves nk Animal for a peek she leaves Monday. that peek gets MISLYNCHED Friday. So I wonder if bob’s post was a “don’t drive FV so hard, you idiots” signal.
Bob’s conditional voting. I think bob/wolf knows that FV is the peek and I think he doesn’t want to be accused of having any responsibility for a mislynch, so he left it to a condition: “if FV has three votes, im voting FV. Otherwise annie.”
See #2, a thousand times. As a villager, bob should’ve considered it could be a peek, and in that consideration, would never have left it up to conditional voting.
If Bob is a wolf, who was he signaling on Thursday?
Dean. Dean’s reversal on Friday is super weird. All week he was “either or” about anarchist or filthy. He started leaning FV hard midweek (Rank 5 imo) while anarchist lost attn. By Thursday, anarchist was all but gone from his posts, and replaced by bobman.
On Friday, he has change of heart vote for anarchist.
Dean was hard driving Anarchist/FV all week. Don’t know his game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he tossed Bob in for future cred. (as opposed to: “all you’ve done is pushed for two mislynches all week”)
Globe is “either or” about anarchist/fv too. I still find globe very villagery though
I’m troubled to report that animalem’s posts about filthy are pretty frightening. This is her D2P1:
Quote:
Originally Posted by animal
Filthyvermin: Because I had you as a player to watch, I went back and carefully read your posts from game day 1 and I think the people who are calling you wolfy probably have it wrong. You had a short first post but then you went and did long posts with insightful points and reads. Thinking that people who had short first posts like yourself were villagers kind of makes sense because I thought that people that did what I did (make longer posts) were villagers as well. Your posts answer questions people ask you. You didn't immediately go after aao when it became apparent that aao was starting to be the wagon and even when you did vote you made it known you could be persuaded otherwise.
I don’t see most of these things. The last point is especially off. I think filthy switched to aao before it became clear that he was going to be the wagon. As of P3, aao was in a three-way tie for 3rd, and filthy switched P4.
Running out of words. Filthy if min 3 filthy votes, anarchist else
omg, I suck. Completely forgot about this and I have to start dinner. Animalem's peeks look like sanga and filthy. I'm pretty suspicious of alice. The fact that she didn't conditional vote P4 is really fishy. She says she can talk herself into me/mets/anarchist/filthy. So why does she not explain conditionals. Mets is never getting lynched, I'm an outside shot, and despite filthy not posting at all, she voted anarchist anyways. What exactly was she looking for?
With filthy likely peeked villager, this doesn't really make sense unless I'm a wolf. (because otherwise why would she want flexibility?) It's possible that luckay is a wolf and she wanted to vote most effectively to protect him? Thoughts would be appreciated.
I promise to read globe tomorrow and figure out what my read of him is. He's right that I kind of halfassed my first wolf case on him for reactions, so now I need to go back and rethink.
Sorry about missing days, just legit forgot about the game during work and missed the deadlines. I think it's because the thread doesn't often get bumped but whatever, my bad.
In other news, I forgot about the thread for most of today and am submitting with like 10 minutes to spare.
I. Continued Thoughts
I explained that Luckay commits to plans as a wolf and carries them out come hell or high water, and that he recently did that to me even though the plan became transparently horrible. Anarchist flipping villager does not do anything to reduce my suspicion of Luckay, and I never heard any meaningful rebuttal of my statements about anarchist being as unobtrustive as he can ever be.
II. Silman Making No Sense
Silman alleges in his last post that he believes Luckay and I are wolves, but doesn't even bother explaining why he believes that. You'd think that would mean we decided to bus each other once I subbed in, and you'd think that would be worth discussing. Throwing that out without discussing it is beyond strange.
III. Animalem
Animalem being seer is a little gross because I can't, on cursory speedread, figure out the peeks unless they're just the first 2 villagers on her light blue names list. Hopefully someone else can confirm.
IV. Monday Posts Are Important
Remember to be aware of cohesive multi-player plans as they seem to emerge from the posts today. These are the only posts that can be coordinated effectively.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “essedarius”:
d1
Quote:
Sangaman: Fabulous post talking about a plan and giving me background information on all the players, which something that I think will help the villagers in the long run and is very much in line with Sangaman's villager game. Strong villager lean.
Filthyvermin: Because I had you as a player to watch, I went back and carefully read your posts from game day 1 and I think the people who are calling you wolfy probably have it wrong. You had a short first post but then you went and did long posts with insightful points and reads. Thinking that people who had short first posts like yourself were villagers kind of makes sense because I thought that people that did what I did (make longer posts) were villagers as well. Your posts answer questions people ask you. You didn't immediately go after aao when it became apparent that aao was starting to be the wagon and even when you did vote you made it known you could be persuaded otherwise.
Quote:
Villagers:
-Sangaman: totally a villager. I can't believe people are still keeping him on their radar. We have like almost the same exact reads from day to day and yet people are calling me a villager and him a possible wolf. Doesn't make much sense to me.
-Filthyvermin: if you guys want to lynch him, then PLEASE just wait another day, as I said yesterday, I think we have a much better candidate in Anarchist who is a wolf, than filthy who is fo' sho' a villager.
filthy is 100% the villager peek on n1, n0 peek is bit unclear, but I'd say it's sangaman
very curious to see if someone has different opinions about these
_________
filthy is an excellent peek, because most people were going to lynch him today
now we can safely lynch bobman today
_________
I'm trying to figure out if wolves thought I wouldn't be as obvious as a seer as I were being or if rebonk is a wolf, or maybe they just thought animalem was the obvious seer because of how she defended filthy, which would make sense
in either case it makes wolf team experienced and since they do have bobman and Luckay, they certainly don't lack the experience
so how does my list change I guess isn't a whole lot now
lock villagers
filthy
sanga*
high probability of being villagers
alice
ibavly
silman
maybe villagers
mets
neutral zone
rebonk
maybe wolves
dean
gder
luckay
very likely wolf
bobman
_________
what the wolves have in common:
they have been going after the easy mislynched that have been accepted as wolfy by consensus, none of them have tried to vary from it a lot, like Luckay has been pushing Anarchist strongly since d1, dean was settling up between filthy and anarchist, he was never voting luckay
actually gder called filthy villagery, but other of his reads have just been so bizarre, like his wolf list seems pretty horrible, with the exception of rebonk I guess who I'm considering a joker wolf
_________
lets do better today, I've explained why bobman is a good lynch on d2, some others have done it too
for me the last nail to dean's coffin would be if he didn't vote bobman after his d2p4 post, fwiw I expect him to vote him even as w/w, but I'm just saying that if he finds a reason not to, then that should be it for him
_________
alice16
if you read my post I think you notice that there's no need for questioning my Luckay vote, he seemed like the only wolf at the time of the wagons
_________
so everyone, read my posts about bobman from d2, read other people's posts about him too
me on d2p3, d2p4 and d2p5 thedean1 on d2p4, globe on d2p3 and d2p2
i did a fairly decent reread but im sure people will have much more analysis than i will.
basically its obv animals d1 was xxsooted imo
its also clear he had 2 village peeks
what is not clear is who his d2 was
im going to now make my case on alice since she is wolfy
she has had the least village reads of any player, this is a wolf tell.
she is relying on useless analyssis to appear villagery, i know alice fairly well outside of werewolf and this level of effort is not role dependant, but the content totally is wolfy
Well that’s demoralizing. Seems clear that his peeks are sangaman, filthy villagers. I’m also very confident that dean and bobman are villagers. Other then that I’m starting from scratch. We have 13 players left and 4 wolves. That means we need to clear 7 people total to win the game. Not easy but def doable. I feel that I already have 5. Wagon analysis is kinda pointless since top2 are villagers but obv if Luckay is a wolf that is very clearing for esse/mets/cphoya/silman.
Gonna start rereading one person carefully every day.
Today, silman.
He started off commenting on everyone for the first two days. We were trying to make super thin reads the first few days but I really don’t feel we can read anything into those posts.
p3 - He’s one of the first to cut down to only commenting on people who he has changed his opinion on. As mentioned in the past villagers have trouble making new reads on everybody while wolves can talk about everyone since they’re making up reads anyways. His village reads are all correct, and his milk=wolf read can still be correct.
p4 - Tells people not to vote akson or anarchist. I think akson is a villager, and I don’t think a wolf is going to try to get people to reconsider 2 extremely easy mislynches.
d2p1 - continues along a similar thought process from his first day.
p2 - makes a strong case on luckayluck. Tinfoil moment: maybe the wolves decided at night to wagon luckay and all 4 voters are wolves? Don’t really think there’s any chance of that. I also think he would try to take mets down if he was a wolf.
p4 - has a very villagery tone
p5 - very very good reads list. All his non-peek villagers we now know are villagers, very possible his fakepeeks are villas too.
Conclusion: Lots of his stuff is surprisingly role neutral. However overall he is probably a villager. His overall villagery tone and how villagery he appeared in real time supports him as well. I’m fairly confident including him in my top7 villagers.
Well after p1 all I have is villagers, so I’ll default to the guy who has seemed wolfy to me since d1p1.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “sangaman”:
Motivation
Alright village, time to regroup.
-We're down four villagers.
-We've had back-to-back v/v wagons.
-Our seer's dead.
-We have no outed or dead wolves and no spew to analyze.
-The wolf team is probably stacked.
-Oh, and we can only post five times a day.
We just went into the locker room down 20 on the road. But, this is no time to give up, this is time to dig deep and mount a comeback.
I am probably getting killed next. I have 5000 words and 120 hours this week to help the village win this game before I die and I will use them as best I can.
Watch this video for additional motivation. We are Kentucky, wolves are LSU:
Skip to 7:45 to see what we're going to do the rest of the game. If this doesn't get you pumped up, check your pulse.
Main Thoughts
-I think it's pretty obvious animalem18 peeked me n0 and filthy n1 villagers, enough said.
-Seer's dead so time to break seer cover. I fakepeeked filthy n0 which is why he was my top villager lean and why I hard-defended him. I legitimately thought he was a villager, fwiw. As I said, he is a wolfy villager and I believed the thought processes in his d1 posts seemed genuine and like he was trying to figure out the game in his own way. Filthy, it was tough defending you d2 because you missed posts and the ones you submitted were wolfy or low-content. That's OK, you are cleared now so use your last day or two in this game to make the best reads and contributions you can.
I peeked Dean d2. I also legitimately read him villager and thought it was a credible peek since his role was ambiguous thanks to Akson's inactivity. So, I'm a little concerned why animalem18 was NKed but I wasn't. We both peeked/defended filthy in a spot where few would. If my Dean peek was right, did they just flip between me and animalem18 and run good? Or was my Dean peek wrong, eliminating me from seer contention?
If both Animalem18 and I had convincing, correct peeks, I'd expect the wolves to kill me over her. Animalem18 was a new player in her first vanilla, I'd expect that wolves would consider me more of a threat. I am concerned that the reason I wasn't killed is because Dean=villager peek was wrong. If Dean/Akson is a wolf, it might also explain why the air let out of the Akson wagon on d1 so quickly. As you may recall, it was the first real wagon of d1, but it was dismissed by several players. Wolves may have derailed it.
Look at the voting after d1p3. Five people are voting akson/Dean. Animalem18, sangaman, filthy, anarchist, and rebonk/Hoya. That's 4/5 confirmed villagers. If Dean is a wolf, we might be able to clear rebonk/Hoya somewhat.
Aao and Silman seemed genuinely willing to vote Akson . Alice defended Akson a bit, and on d1p5 said this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by aliceD1P5
Another reason I’m never voting AKSON here: as of this post, ppl voting AKSON: animal, anarchist, FV, Rebonk, Sanga
Here is post I found particularly wolfy from Akson, and looks even worse now that we know Anarchist was a villager.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AksonD1P3
I forgot this was still going on. Thread is really TL;DR. Like other games. I shall remain UTR early until the clutter clears up. If you want to lynch me for this, don't be disappointed at the result.
anarchist just because
-Both animalem18 and I peeked filthy. That means wolves would have good reason to believe Filthy is a peeked villager so it's extra motivation for them to lynch him over a villager like Anarchist, for example. This is especially true because filthy was a pretty easy lynch last week if it's revealed he's peeked or shc, that changes. I think my peek of filthy d1 is pretty obvious, animalem18's peek becomes obvious at d2p2 (where filthy and I are top of her villager list). I didn't make my peek of Dean obvious until d2p3, so I think I was still in seer contention after d2p2 even if Dean is a wolf.
Interestingly from d2p2 to d2p3 the votes went from 7 anarchist/3 filthy to 5 anarchist/4 filthy. My theory is that this might have been wolves backing off of Anarchist, who I don't think had been fakepeeked by anyone. Wolves probably realized that Filthy was being wolfy and could be mislynched, but that if they seerhunted either me or animalem18 then he'd be cleared. If wolves had gotten filthy lynched yesterday, they could expect Anarchist to get mislynched as well.
Therefore, my theory is that people who switched from Filthy to Anarchist d2p3.
Who switches from Anarchist to filty d2p3? TheDean1 and Bobman. You two are welcome to defend yourselves from this if you think I'm off base.
Dean voted Anarchist level 4 and berated Mets d2p2. On d2p3, he switches his vote to Filthy LEVEL 5.
-I had time to reread sooted d1 for peeks. I actually think he may have peeked gder and not globe, but it's still not clear. Gder, if you are a villager please give this game everything you've got. I have a villager lean for Globe without him being shc, though.
-I encourage everyone to share their fakepeeks so hopefully we can figure this out.
Other Thoughts
-Major props to animalem18 for a great and spirited performance in her first non-turbo and first seer game ever. Having two live peeks, one of whom was close to getting mislynched, is pretty solid. You were my strongest villager lean and I had basically tone-cleared you, another reason its too bad you were NKed.
-Loooooool 10-hour-keyboard-cat.
-I didn't have time/words to give thoughts/responses to everyone today. I will do that this by d3p3 for sure. I will do everything I can to try to solve this game today.
With the seer dead, I think it's time to start looking into POE lynch orders - once the seer is dead it is more important, in my opinion, to clear villagers than to out wolves. We need to find a lynch order containing all of the wolves, and we need to lynch in such a way as to minimise the chance of a wolf ending up cleared. While lynch orders are definitely a good idea, and I feel everyone one should draw one up today, it is important to re-evaluate each game day.
Potential Final 3: (Also to-be-reevaluated)
Essedarius
Bobman0330
Alice16
Players to lynch:
Gder
Mets
TheDean1
Luckayluck
Cphoya
Regarding n1 seerhunt, I'm pretty sure the peek is either Globe or Ibavly but I can't be certain which, and I think neither player should be considered SHC. However, I think both of them are clear enough on their own merits that neither should be lynched this game.
Of my two fakepeeks (Globetrotter n0 and Gder n1) I feel like Globe is almost certainly correct but I'm not certain on Gder - I fakepeeked him for two reasons - Ibavly's case on him being villager was one I was happy enough sponging, as Ibavly *has* played a lot more with him than I have and I had and have Ibavly as villager. Secondly given I'd called him wolfy but not with much conviction day1 he seemed like a reasonable person to peek, and I felt I would look very seery to do so. I did not fakepeek him on basis of being sure he's villager, and thus now that its time to break cover I'd like to look into him closer - Ibavly, are you still confident he's villager? If he was wolf what do you think he would be doing differently? Gder - what would be your poe list, and why are you comfortable clearing who you clear?
Bobman0330 is someone I haven't really put much of my time into this game - I haven't played with him before and others have so I was just going to sponge people. His posts near eod2 worry me though - specifically asking pointed questions about why animalem was clearing filthy (he had her as strongly villagery before this). Bobman: Did it ever occur to you that animalem might be seer, or if not was it that you thought someone else was, you thought she definitely wasn't, or did you just plain not think about it?
That said, I don't see wolfiness in the rest of his posts. I feel like he has made reads, justified them, and is willing to re-evaluate them when new evidence is presented.
Esse is another I haven't really read much into, but he seems pretty villagery to me. I'd say alice is my pick for the final 3 lynch if it comes to it, but tbh I'm leaning towards they are all villagers and all the wolves are found in:
Gder
mets
thedean1
luckayluck
cphoya
Gun-to-my-head clearing one of those 5 for a wolf team I'd clear dean for a hoya/luckay/gder/mets team, but I haven't actually checked if the interactions make sense yet and I won't tonight.
I strongly advocate starting with LuckayLuck/CPHoya wagons - those two I am most confident in (for reasons stated previously) and also I feel like they will give the most information. (They will kick and scream and be really hard to lynch). Mets/Gder will probably be pretty easy to lynch, which means we get less information out of people from the wagoning process. I hope this makes sense, it sounds weird but it's like how you don't want to lynch an easy mislynch on day1 because you get no wagon analysis except it's day3 and they are hopefully wolves rather than villagers by this point.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “TheDean1”:
IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT
METS, LUCKAY NEVER VOTED YOU, THAT WAS IBAVLY. READ THE THREAD YOU ILLITERATE MORONOTRON
Also, please stop claiming that you’re angleshot clear. People deserve to not get lynched for being villagery, not for angly reasons. If you’re a villager, friggin act villagery because at this rate I will never be able to clear you.
Anyway, I obviously switched to anarchist because I realized that animal was basically soft claiming seer, and this is something that I would never do as a wolf under any circumstances. Personally, I don’t view it as my responsibility as a villager to soulread the seer and play according to their peeks- if they peeked somebody n1 who is going to get lynched d2, that’s they’re problem for making a bad peek. I most certainly would not do this as a wolf.
If I keep my vote on filthy that makes it a flip- if he gets lynched d2 and then Anarchist gets lynched d3, we’re at ML+1 without a single peeked villager and all wolves alive. This is simply a spot where I never lose as a wolf, and is far more valuable than a few extra villa points for switching. Further if animal is an FPS’ing vanillager, filthy not getting lynched is catastrophic because if the real seer has good peeks I’m eventually going to get POE’d.
I don’t know if anybody here truly knows me well enough to fully understand how far out of consideration that switch would be for me as a wolf, but if I had some sort of soulmate in the game they would say that I am as good as seer peeked for it. My mislynch priorities as a wolf go
1. Somebody who might be seer
2. Somebody who might be peeked
3. Somebody who might clear themselves down the road
4. Anarchist after blowing his seer cover
I hope everybody trusts that from my perspective it’s the most -EV thing I could possibly do as a wolf. My greatest strength as a wolf is pursuing the proper lynch order to victory- I play to sweep, not to get superclear and solo-win at f3. I would be totally betraying that by switching to annie there. So yeah, I’m a villager, you can write it in pen . I hope everybody considers this before concocting any wild theories about me being a wolf.
answers for esse:
-hoya’s case boiled down to “luckay could be making these posts as a wolf, i don’t like his reads table, and he’s tunneling on anarchist.” It was all very thin imo.
-not sure on silman. i don’t have a link to his wolf win, i have only heard stories. I wasn’t feeling that strong about him being a wolf before, although POE is creeping up on him. more on him later
-alice has a harder villager game to replicate, and she is a known quantity to me. new wolves dominate all of the time vis a vis being light cleared for being n00bs (gabe, IMP, anarchist). so i was starting to feel pretty good about animal being villa but left some room for n00b pwnage.
Anyway, bobman is the painfully obvious lynch today, and I will probably cry if he’s a villager. It’s quite the kick in the testicles for a week of anticipation to build up to a villager lynch. That said, I just don’t know who the wolves could possibly be if not him, even assuming he is a wolf I feel like somebody’s owning us (I swear it’s not me!). I doubt the wolf team is as textbook as mets/bobman/luckay/hoya- mets and luckay are very unlikely to be w/w anyhow. still think alice/globe/ibav villa, and maybe gder too. so that leaves either silman or esse as the most likely hidden wolves, and silman getting his bus on makes lotsa sense. So yeah, bobman is basically an outed wolf.
sanga- there is no way that’s a villager tell for silman...he’s telling a story with zero game related relevance, even a bad wolf could pull that off.
two things bugging me about silman big time:
1) look at his wolf cases, he isn’t looking at 2 sides of a coin to try to figure out roles. he just does a multi-quote and calls whatever he can grasp at wolfy- some things he points out are wolfy but for most of his reasons i’m thinking “wtf? that’s not wolfy at all.” It's all push no pull.
2) two straight days of v/v wagons, most of them being villager driven. wolves are hanging out on side wagons and letting the town fail- silman has opposed all of the main wagons heretofore but he hasn’t made much of an effort to demonstrate why. now he’s going to come in today and say “hey guys, you should have listened to me!” And it will be a massive load of **** because he didn’t give us any tangible reasons to listen to him at the time.
His tone's kinda villagery so I'm not sure I want to call him a lock wolf, just saying he makes a lot of sense as a wolf in my head, for whatever that's worth.
Anyway, I imagine that with a seer dead and bobman on everyone’s wolf list, there will be bussing today.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Click.
Anchorwoman: Good evening, New Pog. I am Anita Lynche and this is CR Peak News. Tonight: Legendary Investigator Chips Ahoy solves the Case of the Vegetarian Wolf, reported sighting of the Evil Mastermind ZELIC in a magic shop, and notorious Pogger McAvoy’s banishment has been repealed: will he return?
But first we are going to continue our nightly series of The Lost Reports with the memos Detective Homer received August 4th, 2011:
In before “ALICE TMI; KNEW ANIMAL WAS SEER” posts today. Funny that Dean is the only person who wrote about knowing Animal was seer too.
(And I still think he’s a good wolf lean, even tho his story is pretty logical, and almost the same as mine)
anyway:
Tuesday Comments:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob, D3,P1
(1)I'm pretty suspicious of alice. (2)The fact that she didn't conditional vote P4 is really fishy.
1. You say this like it’s news
2. Me and everybody else, you mean?
So your theory is that I’m a wolf, you’re a villager (with anarchist and filthy), and I felt it necessary to leave flexibility in my vote between all of you because I wanted to “vote most effectively to protect luckay” ??
I really have no idea what that means. (To be fair, it seemed you were struggling with the theory too)
Most curious tho, is how even tho you admit it’s a jumbled theory, you end your post with “I have no idea who the wolves are if not alice”
What do you think of my points about Dean? Do you find GDER to be villagery?
Aorn, I’m convinced that one of you/dean is a wolf, and likely both. However, I can see possibilities in which it’s one or the other.
But I’ll give you this: I think you’re an easy lynch this week.
So on the chance that this is v/v violence, let’s make a deal: Wednesday make a strong case for someone that is NOT me. Or Dean. I would prefer if it wasn’t Luckay either.
---------------
And finally, I’m going to devote some attention to my biggest fan:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gderwolf, D3P1
(1) i did a fairly decent reread but im sure people will have much more analysis than i will.
basically its obv animals d1 was xxsooted imo
its also clear he had 2 village peeks
(2)what is not clear is who his d2 was
im going to (3)now make my case on alice since she is wolfy
(4)she has had the least village reads of any player, this is a wolf tell.
she is relying on useless analyssis to appear villagery, (5)i know alice fairly well outside of werewolf and (6)this level of effort is not role dependant, (7)but the content totally is wolfy
(8)alice
I’m happy you’re finally putting some work into the game
I guess you missed the completely obvious FV peek on your “fairly decent reread”
What were you doing the last 2weeks of the game?
Good point. Except it’s bobman’s main point about me from D1P2 onward. I’m sure you’re not sponging though. And I’m sure you have more to add from your “fairly decent reread”…
Do you know me better than, say, Ibavly? Akson? Dean? Esse? Because I’m pretty confident you know a few of them EXPONENTIALLY better than you know me. Yet you don’t appear to have any impulse to utilize that “inside knowledge” of Ibav/Akson/Dean to the village’s advantage. You don’t even mention it casually. Yet you USE IT HERE as if it supports anything. You are essentially POSTURING, for the sake of your read. Would a villager ever need to do that?
What does this mean? Have you seen a wolf game of mine where I match this level of effort?
I thought it was my TONE that was wolfy? Now, my CONTENT? It would really help if you could take the five seconds to quote anything from me btw. And ftr, I love the way you designed this sentence: [useless unrelated clause] + [useless/inaccurate unrelated clause] = [content is wolfy]
Please just try to imagine a scenario in which im not a wolf. Or better yet: keep imagining I AM a wolf, and just for the sake of attempting to look like you’ve contributed anything this game try to find the other three wolves.
Honestly, last week I had you pegged as two things (or three I guess):
Wolf or
Awful Villager that is REALLY committing to his N0 “Fake Peek”
(or three: Sabotaging Villager)
When Animal flipped and you still went ahead with the same banal case yesterday, I knew this wasn’t about a fake peek anymore.
RELATED QUESTION TO IBAVLY:
Do you still feel like defending Gder? There is simply no way that anyone would look at Gder’s collective contributions and say that he’s making any sense, let a alone being villagery.
You claim to know him best. And you have had me as a villager lean imo. Why haven’t you interacted with Gder on this point?
Ps GDER: my tone in this post is “fed up bitch” imo
-----
Sanga: I think we have the opposite opinions on the fv/anarchist voters, but we reach the same conclusions (amirite ?)
I think what you said made sense tho. That the wolves would rather mislynch filthy, then have a second mislynch of anarchist, rather than having to NK filthy.
Altho while I was typing that: I think maybe in this type of game, the wolves would rather nk a cleared filthy, rather than nk one of the uncleared players. But idk
Ps: my fake peek was sooted/villa on the first Friday, and was going to be dean villa on the second Friday, until i saw the animal/seer posts.
-----
Silman: what are your thoughts on me? I’m in the only person out of your potential wolves that you don’t give a case on, even tho my lynch order is before Bob/Esse.
-----
Dean: it’s hard for me to follow your explanation about voteswitch, bc I’ve never been in that situation. It sounds good, but forgive me if I’m still really wary of you.
FINAL THOUGHT:
I’m very aware that the same people are providing most of the content itt.
I hope we see a lot more discussion from: luckay, hoya, mets, gder, ibav. And globe: come back!
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “bobman0330”:
OK, first things first. I am not getting lynched today. Absolutely no way I will let that happen, so start thinking about second choices.
Alice, I mean this in the nonmeanest way possible, but your reasoning is completely ****ing absurd. You really think that I found the seer on P1, tried to get the village peek lynched, then underlined that I had found the seer on P4 [i]in order to get my wolf team to not lynch the peeked villager?![/u] It’s insanely convoluted, and it doesn’t make any sense. Why would I not want to have the peeked villager lynched? You say because it must have been all wolves on the wagon. But on P3 the filthy voters were me, ibav, anarchist, and dean. Going just based on my reads, that’s likely 0 wolves. And even if I had some reason for not wanting filthy lynched, I literally can’t imagine a worse way to go about it. Much more reasonable is to assume that I wasn’t seerhunting, because, you know, I’m a villager, and I just commented on that post because it was objectively wolfy, so I thought animal might be a wolf.
Dean has a wolfy case on me, but he’s close to right that his switch to anarchist makes him look good. Without knowing that globe would switch, he wouldn’t know that his vote would be so important, so it’s not as strong as he says, but I do feel like a wolf never switches there if they’ve concluded that filthy is the peek.
Globe d1p2:
Starts with wolf leans on aao, anarchist, filthy, milkreggae, and rebonk. Interesting note is that he has this to say about me:
Quote:
Not much here. I like his advice to share thoughts early and post thoughtfully, but it's role neutral.
But here’s what he says about luckay:
Quote:
I always see strong players make a helpful post like this and think it's role neutral, but it's always a villa. people never clear you for a mechanics post so most wolves just avoid helping the village imo.
Now maybe luckay’s post was more helpful than mine, but what’s interesting is that the p1 post most similar to mine was probably globe’s. Pretty fishy that I get one of globe’s 2 neutral leans.
Globe d1p3:
Develops wolf cases on aao, filthy, and rebonk
Globe d1p4:
same
Globe d1p5:
Not too much of interest here. alice is a villager because of conditional voting, which is “really villagery.” Bobman gets no points for doing the same thing Gder is a villager for having random reads. (I think this was supposed to be a fake peek, which is villagy.) Very measured appreciation of esse’s posts, anarchist is a wolf, rebonk is a wolf. Thinks filthy is a wolf, but not w/w with aao.
Globe d2p1:
Almost entirely about peeks. Votes filthy and says his reads haven’t changed much.
Globe d2p2:
As I mentioned earlier, globe’s response to my case on him is pretty villagery. One part of my case that I still think has value is that he never really wavers on any of his wolf reads. If you look at his posts, it’s pretty clear that he settled on some wolves based on p1, and didn’t really waver or reconsider much of anything throughout the day. He found things to confirm his reads, but not much new at all.
Other than this, he still suspects filthy and rebonk, and has added mets/milkreggae to the mix. Current wolf list is congruent to the living members of his d1p2 list.
Globe d2p3:
Lots of words here, but not much new. Mets is a wolf. I’m a wolf for not responding to his post the instant he made it. SHROOP in the penultimate sentence. Importantly, he says he wants to lynch anarchist before filthy because filthy can maybe be cleared if anarchist is a wolf. He switched his vote to mets for now though.
Globe d2p4:
Me and mets still wolves. Detailed thoughts on anarchist and filthy. I don’t have room to quote at length, but it’s post #67. Note that globe says he can’t post conditionals because it’s so complicated, but he’s not voting luckay. Note that as of p3, no one outside of anarchist, filthy, and luckay have more than 1 vote. It’s overwhelmingly likely that, if luckay is eliminated, anarchist or filthy is the choice. It’s likely that it will be a close vote. Moreover, globe just wrote several hundred words on anarchist and filthy. Why does globe not tell us who he favors between those two? d1p5, globe piles love onto alice for conditional voting, gushing about how villagery it is.
Globe d2p5:
Now globe decides that filthy is the vote. He points to Dean’s d2p4 point about filthy being in anti-spew as the cause. In his defense, filthy did not submit for p4, while anarchist made a decent-for-anarchist post. On the other hand, this is inconsistent with his p3 point that anarchist wolf might clear filthy.
Conclusions:
-There’s no real smoking gun here. Everything is logical. Furthermore, tone is really villagery
-On the other hand, steely consistency is not really villagery. Reading all of his posts, it’s pretty clear that globe has not had a lot of uncertainty about his reads.
-Globe deviated pretty far from what I would have expected to give himself a free hand for his d2 vote. This looks very wolfy given that filthy was apparently a peeked villager. However, there’s no real clear reason why he would value this flexibility with v/v lead wagons. It makes some sense if luckay is incidentally a wolf and globe is primarily interested in protecting luckay, and just switches to filthy when he realized on p4 that he was peeked. If that’s the case, globe’s p4 makes a lot of sense in that it prejustifies a luckay defense without potentially throwing a vote on a villager unless it turns out to be necessary.
I'm stuck in some kind of strange Bermuda Triangle of WW where I vote Luckay on consecutive days, Silman decides we're w/w, Silman votes Luckay with me, and Luckay votes me. The incoherent position between the three of us is Silman's, because (a) wolves are crushing and wouldn't need fake w/w and threby bus two good players and (b) Silman hasn't explained why he believes Luckay and I are committed to w/w violence. I don't think he can.
II. Re: Dean
I'm pretty close to clearing Dean for noticing the Silman weirdness and talking about it the same day I did, even though Dean also went out of his way to play down my case on Luckay, which he shouldn't be doing since he knows first-hand precisely what I'm talking about. Moreover, Dean believes that when I'm a wolf I "lawyer" the thread too much, which I'd have to say doesn't seem to be the case with my case on Luckay, since Dean specifically called it thin. So I'm not sure why he isn't trusting me when I'm doing one of my villager tells (thin feel-based case) but I don't think Dean is a wolf.
Also he's way overrated yo.
III. Re: alice
Really strange to barge into the thread announcing "LOL I KNEW ANIMAL WAS TEH SEER BUT I HAD THE PEEKS WRONG OMG." On the one hand I want to clear her because what wolf even talks about actively seer-hunting in that way (not as criticism but as active process)? On the other hand, like, how is that helpful now?
I've read your D3P1 post three times, though, and just have no idea why Bob not being a peek leads to the conclusion that he's a ldo wolf.
I also have no idea why you're not voting if your theory is so firm that you've got Dean and bob as wolves together.
IV. Re: Peeks
On review it's obviously sanga and filthy villager; filthy peek is pretty good.
V. Re: Monday Themes
Gotta be honest, my theory apparently sucks because I don't see any strong themes emerging from the day 1 posts. The only truly strange flashpoint is silman and I voting luckay while Silman allegedly thinks I'm a wolf, which could suggest a scheme to vote luckay(?).
The other pseudo-theme is bobman getting votes, which looks no different from luckay and alice until you realize alice is obviously going to be voting him and is pushing him now.
I may want to lock in alice / bob as w/v or v/w.
VI. Re: Luckay
Let's pretend I think you're a probably villager. Did you really think anarchist was a wolf, or was that wagon just based on a "weakest link" theory? If the latter, did it occur to you that even though he posts more than anyone, his posts have so little content that being limited to one post would not in any meaningful way restrict his contribution? Proportionally speaking, if what we get is condensed anarchist, that might be kinda good. Are you tempted to apply your weakest link theory to mets?
VII. Re: mets
Do something yo.
VIII. Re: Reading This Thread
This is hands down the hardest thread to read that I’ve ever seen. It’s almost impossible to feel the game, if you know what I mean. There’s just no flow at all.
IX. My Vote
I’m going to vote Silman tomorrow unless he posts something compelling about his w/w read. Pretty high confidence pending today’s posts.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “essedarius”:
seriously gder?
ugh I almost want to lynch him over bobman for not seeing that filthy was the obvious d2 peek, it must be wolf not wanting to spew out the peeks before seeing if village knows them or a wolf acting like he doesn't know what the perceived peeks were
_____
I was making a huge quote post about Luckay and catching him for his I called whoever cphoya subbed in a neutral, but then I saw he actually said he didn't see him as particularly villagery which was true, he called him slight villa lean early, but never gave him villa points and he just kind of lost points in the neutral section when others gained them, so that was kind of a dead end and waste of time, which I kind of have limited of right now
lets just lynch bobman today and be happy about it
luckay is the best counterwagon though unless people want to lynch gder - I mean only reason he's not dead yet is because he might be shc, but xxsooted was strong player kill still imo
i think luckay is a wolf. i have played 4 or 5 games with luckay. he was a wolf once. in all his villager games he was excited and enthusiastic. he came up with crazy plays and strategies.
as a wolf he just didn't really care much. this game he is playing like the time when he was a wolf. there are no dazzling strategies.
vote luckay
boring stuff just for luckay
Spoiler:
sorry if i am wrong about my wolf read on you. maybe it was just a coincidence that you were less enthused as a wolf the one game we played together.
Sorry about yesterday. I was planning to write up my post after EOD in LOTR 2, but ended up going out at the last minute and didn't get home until after the deadline. Luckily, I'm now dead in LOTR, so I can shift all of my WW time and focus back to this game.
PEEKS
I agree w/ the people who said filthy and sanga were animal's peeks. She had them at the top of her villa lists on D2P2 and D2P4 and says:
Quote:
Originally Posted by animalem, D2P4
-Sangaman: totally a villager...
-Filthyvermin: if you guys want to lynch him, then PLEASE just wait another day, as I said yesterday, I think we have a much better candidate in Anarchist who is a wolf, than filthy who is fo' sho' a villager.
I clipped part of the sanga read, but you get the point.
gder402
This brings me to gder:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gder402, D3P1
i did a fairly decent reread but im sure people will have much more analysis than i will.
basically its obv animals d1 was xxsooted imo
its also clear he had 2 village peeks
what is not clear is who his d2 was
This post was a real wtf moment for me, so I took another look at animalem to see if xxsooted was even remotely peekish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by animalem, D1P2
Xxsooted: A very fluffy post with no content and just random mumblings. Although I agree with the Carmen Sandiego comment.
Quote:
Originally Posted by animalem, D1P3
Xxsooted: Better post today than yesterday. I agree with your read on aao, but not on silman. I also agree with your idea that on day1 villagers just post what they're thinking...
Weak villager leans:
alice
ibavly
rebonkulous
silman
xxsooted
I'm not going to quote P4/P5, but animalem asks sooted why he finds her wolfy and comments on his w/w/w case.
Nothing at all peekish. I can't believe gder could actually reread animalem and conclude that sooted was a peek, so I think he made it up, which means he's probably a wolf.
As a villager, if he didn't feel like putting in the work he just wouldn't, but as a wolf he may think he can clear himself by being so obviously wrong on the nk.
I thought gder was wolfy in week 2, but I peeked him week 1 so I couldn't say anything. That's why I tried to get him to post more.
DIRECT RESPONSES / QUESTIONS
@mets
I'm not accusing you of angleshooting or pushing you for that reason. I do want an explanation of why you claimed to be posting in stream-of-consciousness when you had already read the thread, and why you said there would be inconsistencies in your post even though it was a reread.
Also, no offense to aao, but since he came back from his semi-retirement, he hasn't been the same. I haven't seen the theories, the volume, or the effort. In every game I've played with him since he came back, he's been utr and didn't contribute much.
@dean
The masons comment was actually my way of trying to leave a peek w/out being too obvious, but I still think you're villagery and after that video, how can I say no? (but I get to be Tom Cruise)
@filthy
Sorry I tunneled on you. I'm glad you were peeked b/c otherwise I'd probably still be on you.
@bobman
You say you made a half-assed case on me for reactions. Who were you watching for reactions, and what did you conclude, if anything?
READS
This is where I'm at right now. Lock Villa
Globetrotter
Filthyvermin
Sangaman
I don't have enough time today to explain every single read, but if anyone has any questions on why I have someone in a certain category, just ask.
As far as my wolf reads:
mets -- see my posts last week
CPHoya -- I thought rebonk was wolfy, and Hoya hasn't done anything villagery either. Kind of POE, but I think he's probably a wolf.
bobman -- see my posts last week
Gder -- see my case above. Also he just hasn't contributed anything this game. His reads are way out there (alice as his top wolf?!?) and I don't feel like he's actually trying to solve the game.
Luckay is worrying me too b/c he just seems detatched from the game as well. He's not putting in the effort I expect from him.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “ibavly”:
For the people asking me about gder, no I am not as confident about him as I was in the past. Maybe tomorrow I’ll do a double play with 2 UTR people.
Okay it seems that a lot of people are suspicious of bobman so today I’m going to focus on him.
first 2 posts not much to glean from, I suspect that will be a trend, at least til we get more information on other people’s roles.
p3 -
Quote:
Aao
My first thought was “where’s the beef?” but on second thought, everything seems pretty logical, and I feel like a wolf would want to post more, so I give this a few villa points.
This basically fits exactly with what I was thinking wrt aao. A wolf here would be thrilled at the possibility of mislynching aao, and even if he didn’t push him hard he wouldn’t defend him.
Also calls filthy villagery. filthy is a villager who always seems wolfy, again wolves do not like to take out very likely mislynches.
Switches from luckay love to saying meh. If he is w/w with luckay he’d either try to make luckay villa leader or not. He wouldn’t flip flop.
As I said yesterday I feel that people not posting reads on everyone is villagery, since it’s only easy for wolves to make reads on everyone.
p4 -
Quote:
I disagree about the post-by-post thing, at least at this stage. Thoroughness is more important than analytical depth. Having lots of datapoints and reactions on d3 is more important than trying really hard to lynch a wolf today, especially when lynching someone like anarchist or AKson is not a bad result even if they are villagers.
Again exactly what I was thinking and a very villagery approach. Wolves are afraid of all the datapoints eventually clumping together to solve the game.
I also find his case on alice villagery since I’ve been getting similar vibes from alice. She started off really strong but I haven’t been getting that villagery vibe from her.
His complete misreading of xx on d2 also makes me think he is a villager. It’s possible to be leveling here as a wolf, but it just feels like a villager having trouble reading a strange kill.
d2p2 - his conspiracy theory is the exact same as mine. He just consistently has the same thoughts as me.
Quote:
(Conspiracy theory: xx was a three-way kill: strong player, could have peeked gder, could be twisted to clear globe)
What is somewhat strange is that he thinks gder is a wolf. He points it out immediately, but again wolves generally don’t like to obviously contradict themselves, and he is clearly aware of this.
p5 -
Quote:
Someone made the point that I have wolf reads on half of the field, which is completely true. It's not that I actively think half of the field is wolfy, it's that half of the field has made wolfy posts that I commented on the next day, then promptly forgot about.
this is just sooo villagery. I don’t know how anyone can think this is coming from a wolf.
Obviously I can’t go word by word over all the posts, but overall bobman has shown villagery thought process, done things I don’t expect a wolf to do, and has been constantly reevaluating and changing his reads.
For these reasons I have bobman as one of my top villagers and I will fight to stop him from being lynched.
In other news, esse and alice are pinging my wolfdar. Gonna get around to them sometime in the next week or so.
I don’t want to give to much power to another wagon when I don’t have a particularly strong wolf read on them so keeping my vote the same. Still rank 3.
i reread and thought/still think that gder might be the peeked wolf. he mentions gder as a wolf throughout
filthy -- he did fight to save him perty hard so im fine believing he is a peeked villager
dean. i have been villagery. i never asked to be angleshoot cleared. i didnt even want to talk about my edit, but alice and globe kept bringing it up. esse brought it up, i answered it, and he moved on. the other 2 didnt.
but dean, seriously. you have subbed in and have not been wolfhunting. not even a little bit
if you are a villager, im pretty disappointed in you
if im the seer, deans balls are hairy
luckayluck; i heard you call me a villager the other day. do you have an updated fakechart?
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “sangaman”:
Main Thoughts
-Apparently animalem's peeks weren't as obvious to everyone as I expected. Filthy goes from "watch list" d1p5 to villager d2p1 and she hard defends Filthy throughout d2. Filthy was peeked villager n1.
Gder not wolf n0 peek, d1p5 animalem18 doesn't even have gder on "watch list" d1p5 and never votes him d1.
xxsooted not villager n0 peek. Animalem18 makes a "strong villager lean" list d1 and xxsooted not included.
Animalem gave me strong villager lean all d1. D2P2, I am on top of animalem18's villager list, above filthy. She calls me "totally a villager." I was n0 peek.
-I just realized today that Dean switched his vote from Filthy to Anarchist d2p5. That goes against my theory that wolves wanted filthy dead on d2. The switch is weird itself, switching off of a rank 5 vote on Friday when wagons are close is not acceptable. Then I saw this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by AliceD3P1
Imagine: Wolves nk Animal for a peek she leaves Monday. that peek gets MISLYNCHED Friday. So I wonder if bob’s post was a “don’t drive FV so hard, you idiots” signal.
Maybe that is exactly what happened. Why else is Dean changing his rank 5 Filthy vote Friday when Anarchist was increasing villagery and Filthy was increasingly wolfy? It doesn't make sense.
-Alice gets 1000 villager points for the thoughts she shared d3p1. She was my second strongest villager lean after animalem18 last week. I'm going to say she's clear especially if Bob and/or Dean flip wolf. She's done awesome work. We're not lynching her today.
She makes a great point about Bob and his interactions with animalem18 last week. D1P5 bob says “animalem18 really is a villager.” D2P4 bob singles out animalem18 for her defense of filthy and calls it “troubling.” It seems more likely that animalem18 would have peeked filthy than be W/W with Filthy, defending him when he's at his wolfiest and missing posts. Bobman calls out animalem18 anyway.
-Dean, you say the reason you switched your vote on Friday was because of animalem's peek but don't mention mine anywhere. You noticed my hard defense of filthy d1. You asked me d2p1 why I defended Filthy. Were you seerhunting me? Did you think I might have peeked Filthy?
Here's what you said about switching your rank-5 filthy vote to Anarchist.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanD3P1
this is something that I would never do as a wolf under any circumstances.
This is the main argument you used when you won Captain Planet as a wolf in f3. "I'd never make the n2 kill under any circumstances" was what you said over and over. It turns out you did make the n2 kill, and the fact that Globetrotter believed you won you the game.
You had no guarantee that Filthy would be the lynch if you kept your vote on him, and I think you switched to avoid looking like you were hunting the seer's peeks. You say if you keep your vote on Filthy it's a flip. You had no way of knowing at the time you switched your vote that Filthy would have even a 50% chance of getting lynched if you don't switch. You can't be cleared for that.
Nobody believe Dean when he says a certain action is outside of his wolf range. I can't stress this enough.
Here's my take on Dean's actions last week. He saw animalem put filthy as top-2 villager read d2p2 and noticed the peek. D2p3/p4 Dean switches his vote from rank-4 anarchist to rank-5 Filthy and pushes him as extremely hard under the assumption that Filthy is a peeked villager. D2P5, Dean realizes (maybe because Bob discreetly warns him) that his push of Filthy might look bad and switches his unswitchable vote to another villager. He had his defense ready to go at this point in case animalem18 flipped seer. Notice how Dean opens with this defense d3p1 and dedicates most of his post to it. This was deliberate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeanD3P1
Anyway, I imagine that with a seer dead and bobman on everyone’s wolf list, there will be bussing today.
Bobman
The irony is palpable if Dean/Bob are W/W.
-I don't buy bobman's case on Alice. Nobody gave hard conditionals yesterday. Bobman, why should we think you're not a wolf?
-Ibavly, why are you "very confident" that TheDean1 and Bobman are villagers? Please do more than read 1 person closely a day; there are 5 days and 13 players.
-Silman makes a good point about gder. I actually thought ibavly might have been seer and peeked gder villager because I didn't understand how anyone could be defending gder if they hadn't peeked him. Now that seer cover is done, does anyone actually think Gder is a villager?
Gder's contributions have ranged from non-sensical to non-existent and I've disagreed with almost every read he's made. I also don't know how gder thinks animalem's peeks were xxsooted n0 and unclear n1 when he claims he did a decent reread of animalem. Gder hasn't even realized Animalem is female. I wonder if gder is trying to make it look like he's incapable of making animalem's NK by misinterpreting her peeks so blatantly. No offense intended, gder.
Appeals to Players
-Mets, no clue how you think gder is peeked wolf. If you are villager and don't want to get mislynched, start kicking wolf tail.
-Luckay, you're a beast and I miss your long posts. I know Diablo is awesome, but you should make time to kick wolf tail as well and save yourself from mislynch if you're villager.
-Of everyone in here, Globe was the last person I expected to miss a post. Globe, your villager game is sicknasty, if you're villager here (and I think you are) we need you (to kick wolf tail).
Where I'm at now:
Villagers
Filthyvermin
Alice16
Villager-Leans
Globetrotter
Silman
essedarius
Thin-Villager-Leans
CPHoya
Ibavly
LuckayLuck
Wolfy
Metsandfinsfan
Gder402
Wolves
Bobman0330
TheDean1
I'm 99% voting Dean or Bobman today. Rather Dean so he can't wiggle his way out after I die.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “TheDean1”:
Sigh, I feel like ppl are totally on the wrong track and I am not really all that sure of what’s what myself. The pile of uncleareds is like a who’s who of elite wolves and people are just going to start lynching whoever flies, which is probably going to be the villagers of the group if the wolves err on the side of not bussing.
So uhhh, I think it’s a bit early for the good old “Dean’s in the game so he must be a wolf.” I’ve only been here a day, tough crowd. I was extremely clear that I thought filthy was a wolf all week and that I intended to end with my vote on him. I switched to anarchist to manipulate him to switch off alice onto filthy. I designated it level 4 because I had been voting filthy level 4 and it would look silly to switch to a level 2 anarchist vote. These levels are pointless anyway, read the damn words in my posts. Once I figured out that Anarchist was probably a villager and bobman was probably a wolf, it was too late to CFD. So when Animal soft-claimed on Thurs, my only option was Annie.
Sanga- the reason why you didn’t die is because you’re not the seer, plain and simple. I knew animal was the seer and I am a villager, she basically outed herself with her pleas to lay off filthy. Alice figured out it too, so did esse (he upgraded you and filthy to neutral after animal’s post). There’s a lot more to NK decisions than correct peeks- even though you had right ones, it would be pretty dreadful for you to be eaten before animal.
Also LOOK AT THE VOTING PATTERNS. aao’s voters included three confirmed villagers, two highly likely villagers (alice and globe), and esse who can be anything. filthy’s voters included four confirmed villas (yeah i’m counting myself), alice, and luckay. WOLVES ARE NOT DRIVING THE LYNCHES, VILLAGERS ARE. WOLVES ARE LEAVING THE LOW HANGING FRUIT ALONE.
This is an important point because you can’t look back and say “hey, a bunch of villagers were voting this person, they must be a wolf!” because the wolves aren’t sponging the easy wagons. Wolves have kept their hands clean of mislynches, villagers are probably going to get pressure for being wrong now.
Sanga, I know you probably associate defensiveness with me being a wolf, but I find it important to clear myself in either role, and we need villager votes on wolves at this point. You can try to be a hero and push for my lynch if you want, just don’t be surprised when you’re disappointed at the result.
Onto things other than myself:
I’m still clearing alice and globe. That leaves 8 people. For Luckay to be a wolf, his partners would be something like bobman + gder/ibav + silman/hoya. For Luckay to be a wolf without bobman, that would almost certainly mean that at least two of esse/hoya/silman were bussing (highly doubt w/w with mets). That is a really weird time to bus since Luckay is a good wolf, and if he gets lynched that puts Anarchist’s mislynch on hold. I’ve seen stranger things, but the logical conclusion is that for Luckay to be a wolf, bobman almost certainly would need to be a wolf as well, so he dies first. Not to mention that bobman has been like a gazillion times wolfier.
I still can’t settle on a wolf team I like. I want to lock in bobman as wolf, because life doesn’t make sense to me if he isn’t. In terms of pure wolfiness, I would say Silman/Hoya/Mets are next three, and they kinda sorta fit in terms of reads/interactions/etc. Esse could also be plugged in for any one of those 3 if you figure he’s bussing bobman har-har-hard. gder was villagery early, but it’s not enough to lock clear him and he fits in with lots of wolf teams. Also I feel like bobman might have spewed him wolf d1.
Esse- why do you think I’m a wolf anyway? Because I’m a good wolf and I’m alive? You might have noticed that we’ve been mostly on the same page other than our opposite reads on Silman and Luckay. I’m hopeful that you’re a villager here, so re-read all of my little tidbits on Silman, re-read his posts, and tell me why he’s a villager and I’m a wolf. Remember he is a good wolf and he has dominated this format before, I did some searching and found a link:
Mets- you suck. You have yet to post a single coherent thought in the thread. It’s not feces to call you a wolf, because you have posted nothing other than feces.
Silman- so you think that hoya and mets were bussing luckay along your side? Further you think mets and luckay are w/w? Really? Idk, maybe the team is like Luckay/Hoya/gder/bobman and you’re crushing as a villa. But I don’t understand why you’re projecting bobman to make the f3, or why you’re ignoring him entirely when he’s been a hot subject of debate.
Alice- a lot of times it’s useful to probe the seer itt. I’m guessing bobman suspected animal of being seer and decided to probe to see if she knew filthy was villa or would waver on her read, since n00bs rarely lay airtight seer cover.
Ibav- pls explain your bobman villa read in GREAT detail.
Hoya- so it was wolfy of Luckay to want to lynch Annie because he couldn’t annoy us with spam? Huh?
I'm probs not moving off of bobman, he HAS to be a wolf at this point, right?
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Click.
Anchorwoman: Good evening, New Pog. I am Anita Lynche and this is CR Peak News. Tonight: Mayor Zurvan holds a press conference to address the growing sheepishness of the citizenry, The Pogger Froggers decimate the Melboure Mathematicians, and the charismatic celebrity pogger Atakdog hosts an epic Geography Challenge at the grand opening of the renovated Thunderdome.
But first we are going to continue our nightly series of The Lost Reports with the memos Detective Homer received August 5th, 2011:
I don’t have the energy to comment on much today, so this is gonna be brief.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hoya
(talking about alice barging itt announcing seer stuff)
…On the other hand, like, how is that helpful now?
I've read your D3P1 post three times, though, and just have no idea why Bob not being a peek leads to the conclusion that he's a ldo wolf.
I also have no idea why you're not voting if your theory is so firm that you've got Dean and bob as wolves together.
Ahoy hoya!
Just a couple things caught my attention:
You bring up three points against me:
1. posts a couple sentences that aren’t helpful
2. draws messy conclusions
3. doesn’t vote
The stand out to me bc I feel like 1 & 3 are things that wolves like to talk about (sort of non-tells, neutral stuff)
From all the content I put into the thread, it’s surprising that you would zero in on a couple sentences I wrote and question “how is that helpful now?”
And from my actions all game, and the tone of all my posts, what do you find suspicious about not having my vote on bob at the end? Do you think I’m afraid to vote him? Or dean?
In truth: I was rushing and forgot.
But it’s seems to be such a nonconcern for most people in this game so far. So it’s interesting that you bring it up (and bob brought up similar concerns about me not conditionally voting last week).
Just feels like a unique thing to focus on
your middle point is somewhat legitimate, since I was messy, but I don’t think it’s tough to conclude that bob gets wolf points for soft pushing his top villager lean after one post that most ppl would find seery.
Cliffs: You may legit find me wolfy, and you were just honing in on this particular post.
Or you may be looking too hard to find things wolfy about my post.
Bob:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bob
Much more reasonable is to assume that I wasn’t seerhunting, because, you know, I’m a villager, and I just commented on that post because it was objectively wolfy, so I thought animal might be a wolf.
after a week and a half of you locking in an “animal=villager” read, you think she might be a wolf after seeing one comment?
And idk, I don’t like how you included the word “objectively” here.
Unless you’re eliminating all tone influence, your reads are always going to be somewhat subjective. You had a very strong (strongest) villager lean on animal, which built up. This is almost completely reversed by ONE post, bc you’re being “objective” about it?
I don’t believe you, or anyone, plays that way.
I think in between: [strongest villa lean] and [might be wolf] there are usually a few more steps. OR the “one post” is some ****ing post! But animal’s wasn’t…
Idk.
maybe im reading into this too much, but the inclusion of “objectively” feels like a preemptive defense, as opposed to a more natural defense:
A. and I just commented on that post because it was objectively wolfy, so I thought animal might be a wolf
B. and I just commented on that post because it was wolfy, so I thought animal might be a wolf
C. and I just commented on that post because it was super ****ing wolfy, so I thought animal might be a wolf
ps: i liked that you switched to someone else last night. it's hypocritical, i know, that i haven't. and in retrospect, probably out of line for me to suggest you do (if i wasn't doing the same today)
i don't really think you think i'm a wolf though, and i wanted you to focus on your best read. (maybe i'm wrong, and today you're guns blazing at alice!)
you are my best read. and dean is linked in too. but he's so slippery.
Dean, you need to pull yourself together. If I didn’t think your d2p4 vote switch was really villagery, I would think you’re a wolf for all your “bobman just has to be a wolf I’m so confused if he’s not” bs. I’m a villager, so you need to start figuring out this game on that basis.
I’ve been moving to luckay=wolf based on tone (specifically, mopey luckay = wolf luckay iirc. there was a recent game that I blew in f3 and have totally blocked out of my memory, but luckay was a lock mislynch and he was really fired up about the game still. this is not that luckay), plus he makes things a lot simpler if he’s a wolf.
But today I’m going to explain why I think esse is a wolf.
D1P1 axel starts off decent, then doesn’t post P2. P3 esse subs in and posts fluff.
D1P4 is a megalist of post-by-post one-liners. Here’s where it gets interesting. Aao appears to come up as esse’s top wolf wagon, or at least that’s who he votes. Stated reason is his d1p2 post:
Quote:
I'm surprised he notices animalem and gives her village points, but doesn't do the same with sanga and silman - I think that makes him more likely to be a wolf than not.
Now here is the relevant chunk of aao’s post:
Quote:
Interesting take on everyone's first posts. The general gist is that everyone who made something of their post tended towards a villager in my head and everyone who wasted it tended towards a wolf.
Worthy mentions:
Aaronk56's Son's first post is very suspect - given the huge amount of potential things to discuss, he's wasting his post on fluff. On a spectrum, this is more wolfy than filthyvermin's post of 'first', although both are wolfy.
Animalem18 has a very villagery, newer player tone to me.
Globetrotter has a similar mindset to me - he's a natural villager to me.
XXSooted's first post reall surprised me - I was expecting to read something similar to LuckayLuck's and Globetrotters about strategy, but instead he is on about making something out of the flavour in a vanilla game??
Now go back and look at d1p1 posts from animalem, sanga, and silman. They are totally different, especially with regard to tone! I had all three as villagers from d1p1, but animalem was rocking a very distinctive new-player tone, and the other two definitely were not.
D1P2 count is akson/dean 3, aao 2.
D1P5:
esse piles on a bit with his aao case. oddly, he claims that aao is in anti-spew despite writing like 700 posts. he makes a reasonable point about aao dropping a (p2) wolf read without comment. Not much else of interest here. Esse gets noticeably bored/lazy with the reread, which is a little unusual, given that he’s covering p3/p4, which had a lot more stuff to talk about.
D2P1:
esse thinks his previous reads were “very inaccurate” and starts all over again. Interestingly, esse starts by scrutinizing everyone who voted someone other than anarchist/aao on d1. Reasons this is interesting:
-As of P4, wagons were 4/3/2/2/2. Voting one of the 2 wagons is not unusual at all.
-Off-wagon voting is a lot wolfier if you know that the top two wagons were v/v.
-Esse distinguishes a bit artificially between anarchist, who ended the day with 4 votes, and milk, who had 3.
D2P2:
More questions to various people. Suspicion of me building (was there in P1 too). Interestingly, esse hasn’t really made any reads since he started over. He’s just thrown out a lot of questions.
D2P3:
Finally, some actual reads (sort of). most of the post is denouncing me, then a list of reads is thrown in at the end. I went back and looked at responses to d1 questions:
questioned d1:
gder - totally ignored, failed to post p1, maybe villa
ibavly - points out that milk was a perfectly reasonable vote, villa
rebonk - double nonpost, lock villa (must be fakepeek)
sanga - responds, maybe wolf
silman - responds, villager with some commentary
Overall, very little evidence of any kind of thought process behind these reads. The gder thing is bizarre, given that he was a strong wolf read on the old list. Note rebonk and gder can’t both be fakepeeks.
D2P4:
posts some stuff about sanga, more about me, will vote between filthy and luckay as he sees fit if I’m not getting lynched
D2P5:
more on me being a wolf, long response to dean, some updated reads, votes luckay with no explanation.
I’m not gonna read d3 now because I want to go home, but esse has done NOTHING this game except push me. His thought processes are absolutely opaque. It’s actually pretty unreal. He asks questions and ignores the answers. The only reasonably thorough case he’s made is on me as a wolf. That’s it, in 8 days of posting. esse
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “essedarius”:
alice
I think what bobman means is pretty clear, he assumes you are w/w with Luckay and wanted to keep your options open to lynch anyone else other than him to save him from getting lynched.
What doesn't make sense is how he takes in to account filthy being peeked villager and how he assumes you knew that, and how by only based on that assumption he comes to the conclusion of you being w/w with Luckay.
bobman<---- everyone else read too since I think this is pretty huge
Could you explain what your logic was in saying what you said to alice?
on globe d1p2, it seems like you 2 are talking about different thigns anyways so it's not inconsistance for him to say those things.. luckay was giving a straight guidance what to on some specific days and what not to do where you just said villagers post something thoughtful, yours was more encouragement his was more strategy - why didn't you notice this on your d1p3? you seemed to comment on his formatting, but does that mean you didn't actually read his post and call his post role neutral anyway?
also!!!!!!!!
you had villa lean on globe on d1p5
then you called him a wolf on d2p1
you call him a wolf because he pushed aao superhard, but never made a case - well he did make 2 cases and in addition to that he also questioned aao
but that's not the point, you don't seem to have a reason to originally flip on him after d1 based on your new post about him, you also notice that he keeps developing case on aao, which previously you said he hadn't
ok seems like there's not much contradictions in your d2 points about him
however I find it hilarious that you've made the maybe globe was protecting wolf Luckay, maybe alice was protecting the wolf Luckay, you've made both of those arguments yet you haven't talked about Luckay in a long time, last time was d2p2 when you said he still seemed villagery after calling him xxsooted's potention wolf peek on d2p1, so it makes no sense and other thing that makes no sense is how you just go ahead and vote me after not saying a word about me in the whole post
conclusion
bobman is calling people w/w with Luckay because he in fact knows that Luckay is a wolf, he has never tried to interact with him and has only said couple of words about him, so I repeat it makes very little sense for him to do these w/w comparisons with other people when he seems to have no opinion of Luckay. As a wolf it makes much more sense, because he knows Luckay is likely to get lynched so he's creating doubt towards the people he wants to wagon on the future days that are villagers using his knowledge about Luckay's role to his favor.
dean
looks like I can up you a little, problem is I have no idea who I would replace you with just yet, but it seems like we're thinking that bobman/luckay/gder is a plausible wolf trio, and I doubt you'd bus your whole team, right? I'll reread Silman later..
Glad to see bobman is a wagon. Also glad to see alice isn't anymore.
Luckay is a decent second wagon, but I think gder would be better. He's been on alice since the beginning of week 2, and other than pushing her his only real contribution has been his lol analysis of animalem's peeks (no offense gder). It doesn't feel like he's trying to solve the game, and I think his reread of the peeks was made up -- probably intended to spew himself villa.
QUESTIONS / RESPONSES
@alice
Why do you think that specifically one of bobman/theDean has to be a wolf?
@bobman
I thought alice was villagery for the conditional voting thing b/c she seemed to care very much that her vote counted for something. I believe I mentioned that your post was villagery for the same reason, but it wasn't to the same extent b/c she went to such lengths to specify where she would vote in each given scenario.
Also, it seems like you're calling me wolfy for sticking with my wolf reads -- but then also calling me wolfy for changing my mind on filthy/anarchist.
@mets
This isn't really a question, but his post did remind me that Luckay hasn't been updating his TARP list of reads.
I was planning to give my reasoning for each of my reads today, but I think it's pointless b/c all of my thoughts on people are already out there itt.
Here's another thought on bobman:
First of all, he admits that he made up his original case on me for reactions, but what does that mean? Who was he looking to get reactions from? If it was me, he already said that he thought my reaction was villagery -- but he is still spending most of his posts trying to cast suspicion on me. It's like he has decided to push me and is sticking with that plan.
If he was looking for reactions from other people -- well I haven't seen him comment on that at all.
And his case on me is all over the place. First he calls me wolfy for locking onto wolf reads and not changing. Then he calls me wolfy for changing my mind throughout last week. He says I was leaving my vote open so that I could protect luckay, but I haven't seen him make a case on Luckay or even really mention him much at all (and in fact said yesterday that luckay was still quite villagery -- so why is he suspicious of me not wanting to vote luckay yesterday?). If he thinks I'm w/w with luckay, why hasn't he suspected luckay at all?
Instead he votes esse, despite not saying anthing about him this week.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “ibavly”:
Time to do LuckayLuck, since he’s the counterwagon and I have to decide if I want to vote him. I find luckay hard to read though. Filthy and silman are both villagers so thats a good start.
p2 starts bad. He is fakepeeking milk, which makes absolutely no sense considering how milk got off to a bad start from post 1. It also reminds me that he stopped posting his charts a while ago. Whats your reason for that?
Also in terms of content milk was on the same page as anarchist+gder, his 2 biggest wolf leans. strange. Wouldn’t think wolf luck would do something so strange, but villager luckay shouldn’t either.
p3 looks pretty good all around, nothing really jumps out as wolfy. OTOH nothing really jumps out as villagery either. I know LL likes to make big complicated reads and we haven’t seen that yet. He’s fixating on an UTR villager.
p4 - clearing aao looks good for him. Again wolves are more likely to sit back and watch aao get lynched rather than defend him. Of course his top 3 wolf leans being all villagers is not good for him.
p5 - makes his request for people to analyze wagonomics. Uses strong language that he expects everyone to do it. I don’t like this at all. For starters wolves are more likely to try to give villagers busywork than villagers.
Also the result of fixating on wagons is that we will be inclined to read a lot into them. Knowing now that almost everyone that got wagoned d1 was a villager this is very prowolf. It sets us thinking along the wrong paths.
Also I think xxsooted was very wrong so telling us to look carefully at the nk’s reads is also something a wolf would be very inclined to say.
Not saying he wouldn’t say these things as a villager, just that he’s very likely to say them as a wolf.
d2p1 - Starts really badly. First stressing how sure he is anarchist is a wolf, then saying analyzing the wagons is pointless because we don’t know anarchist’s role.
p2 - finally starting to hit WW fatigue. Has shut down to simply fixating on getting anarchist lynched. The question is, is he just trying not to give away too much information or does he simply feel he has read everyone as well as he possibly can and has no new information to work with. From this post I suspect the latter.
In all the games I’ve played with Luckay, what he’s done is make reads that he very strongly believes in early, then push those reads super hard, then if he is wrong simply lay down and let himself get lynched. I don’t think I’ve ever been in a luckay wolf game.
p4 - randomly adds cphoya to his main wolf reads. Say it’s because cphoya is too good of a villager to vote him. Doesn’t add up.
It’s very odd that he has mets as a villager for doing the same things as cphoya, same thing he did with milk yesterday. If Luckay is a wolf I’d basically lock mets in as 100% wolf.
d3 - basically has given up. I don’t see a way he can get clear playing this way.
Conclusion - overall wolfy play. Some of his tone has been villagery, but overall has been under enthused with this game even before anarchist flipped, which is not what I expect from luckay. Has to be lynched eventually and we get a decent amount of info from his lynch.
Will definitely vote him to save bobman. If another wagon pops up today I’ll make a decision between that person and luckay tomorrow in my case.
Sigh, I feel like ppl are totally on the wrong track and I am not really all that sure of what’s what myself.
Fine. I feel the same way.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDean
I still can’t settle on a wolf team I like. I want to lock in bobman as wolf, because life doesn’t make sense to me if he isn’t. In terms of pure wolfiness, I would say Silman/Hoya/Mets are next three, and they kinda sorta fit in terms of reads/interactions/etc. Esse could also be plugged in for any one of those 3 if you figure he’s bussing bobman har-har-hard. gder was villagery early, but it’s not enough to lock clear him and he fits in with lots of wolf teams. Also I feel like bobman might have spewed him wolf d1.
This seems to me to be too deep an analysis for somebody who doesn't know what is going on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDean
I'm probs not moving off of bobman, he HAS to be a wolf at this point, right?
...no, he's nowhere near HAS to be a wolf. Bizarre argument. Bizarre approach for somebody who doesn't know what is going on.
Before I make the next proposal, note that I actually didn't consider sangaman's read before I made my own read.
**PROPOSAL: EVERYONE FOLLOW THE CLEAR VILLAGER SANGAMAN**
This is a game in which the votes can't get communicated too well. We're getting in crunch time as this is part 3 and we only have 2 more opportunities to vote here.
I think the direction of the lynch is poor, especially with TheDean ending today's post with "bobman pretty much HAS to be a wolf, right?" That could be such grievous spew that if Dean is a wolf, bobman isn't. (though bobman could still be a wolf. Whatever. Play the odds at this point.)
Conditional Voting: I will vote for whoever sangaman votes (even if it is myself). I think everybody should do this.
I make clear that I think [filthy, sanga, alice, globe] are villagers. Mets is probably a villager though he's a total wildcard. What kind of player spends five parts of a day obsessing over one player who didn't actually vote him? Mets, I never voted you. I thought the player before you was a villager. That read stuck. Your play as is is only confusing as opposed to villagery or wolfy.
I make it clear that I think [CPHoya, TheDean] are wolves.
Also, soul read:
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDean
The pile of uncleareds is like a who’s who of elite wolves
I think TheDean likes his team. His team of wolves.
Re: Detectives United: The Lost Reports Game Thread
Written by Detective Code Name “sangaman”:
Main Thoughts
-Sadly, my two strongest wolf leans yesterday (Bob & Dean) also had two of the more eloquent and substantial posts yesterday. I realize that mislynching villager-Dean would be a big mistake, but his defense d3p1 reminded exactly of how Dean tried to clear himself as a wolf in CP and I'm going to continue pushing him today.
Dean, I don't think anyone said "Dean's in the game he must be a wolf." Why are you saying now that the vote levels are pointless if you used them all last week? It's important to know where people are voting for the village to be organized in this format. Announcing a lock vote for a top 2 wagon then switching it on Friday to the other wagon is blatantly anti-village. It just looks like you're making excuses now.
You say "I figured out that Anarchist was probably a villager" in d3p2. You also say esse figured animalem18 was the seer and upgraded filthy to neutral in his reads list. I see esse realizing filthy might have been peeked, and backs off of him enough to designate him as neutral. Esse had never voted Filthy, so nothing unusual here. You, on the other hand, back off Filthy so hard and so suddenly that you vote someone you think is "probabaly a villager" over someone who was a rank vote one day earlier. Explain to me how that makes sense.
You also say animalem was NKed because she hard defended filthy which outed her as seer. Go read my d1p5 and tell me that I wasn't blatantly pleading with people to lay off filthy. I mention him and say, in underlined text, "Consider this a hard defense of filthyvermin." Explain to me why it's cut and dry that I'm not the seer if my peek of you was also correct. I would never hard claim as seer on d1 or d2 just to save one peek, I did all I could.
-"Lynch me if you want, but don't be disappointed at the result." I have only seen that phrase used once outside this game, and it was said by a wolf. Two people have said that this game, Akson in d1p3 and Dean in d3p2. Guess what, they are the same person. "Don't be disappointed at the result" is not a defense or an appeal to logic. It is an appeal to emotion. It is a threat. It's saying "lynch me but I'm preemptively rubbing it in your face if I flip villager." I was going to mention that Akson said it today, then I realized that Dean had just said it too.
-I hope that everyone closely considers my case on Dean/akson closely and rereads all their posts. I am a seer-cleared villager so you know I'm being genuine and honest in my posts and reads. Akson was wolfy and refused to be of any use to the village before he subbed out. Dean is much more eloquent, motivated, and proficient at manipulating people. I suspect a big reason he didn't get lynched d1, where he was temporarily lead wagon, was because wolves decided not to bus him.
-Bobman, I'll give you that you weren't alerting your wolf partners on d2p4 when you questioned animalem18. I'm just suspicious that you'd question her at all. If filthy were a wolf, I don't think any fellow wolves would bother defending him the way animalem18 did. Filthy was basically guaranted to be lynched this game unless he was peeked villager or had a drastic improvement in his posts. Wolves wouldn't risk looking horrible by trying to save him on d2. The fact that you questioned your biggest villager read for defending filthy in that spot is odd.
Otherwise, Bob, you sound a bit like a villager in your last post. Your analysis of Globe is good, but it's weird that you spent all post talking about him then voted esse. I have never seen Globe's long-wolf game, what is it like compared to his villager game?
I've never played with Bob before. Can anyone tell me how capable he is of sounding villagery as a wolf? Frankly, we can't afford to lose a villager that's dedicated and committed to winning and solving the game like Bob seemed to be d3p2 if he's a villager.
Other Thoughts
-Mets claimed he reread animalem18 again, but he missed the paragraph where she tells everyone she's female. Gder did the same thing. Were they really rereading her or just pretending to? Mets, there's no way animalem peeked gder wolf n0, she never voted him and didn't put him on her watch list.
-CPHoya, you're pretty close to clearing Dean because he noticed Silman weirdness the same time you did? Noticing one instance of weirdness does not a cleared villager make. You also say alice called Bob a wolf because Bob wasn't a peek? That's not my understanding at all.
There's nothing weird about alice noticing animalem's peeks. I thought ibavly might be seer who peeked gder villager n0. I thought animalem might have genuinely thought I was villager and was partially sponging my filthyvermin defense, when I saw she was seer it took me no time to know filthy and I were her peeks.
-The way Luckay seems to be just conceding is blowing my mind. I've seen him wolf twice, and both times he continued fighting till the bitter end. He even refused to give in last game I played him after he'd been clearly peeked wolf by the seer and the other wolf who was peeked began lolcatting. I've never seen him face pressure as a villager, so I can't say that this is a villagery tell. All I can say is the village needs you, Luckay.
-Alice and Globe continue to do good work.
-I will give at least one more reads list this week, and possibly two.
-If I don't vote Dean or bob today, my next option is Gder followed by Mets.
Written by Detective Code Name “Silman”:
Okay
First of all, I'm so sorry for missing last postday, I'm still getting over my fever and I went to sleep with like 12 hours till eod then slept for 13 hours. Oops.
I'd like to address a few things for dean in this post, namely the pairings and my thoughts on bobman.
The thing that makes me feel okay about mets/luckay being w/w is that they are calling each other wolf at a time they are unlikely to actually get the other lynched. When it comes time to actually put their vote where their mouth is, they can just flip their read or vote a more wolfy wolf or something
guess what mets just did
he voted gder
when there's a luckay wagon
and cphoya
he gave early support for luckay wagon
and just now he's unvoting
because he wants to vote me.
Calling someone a wolf then making up some reason to vote someone else is *very* w/w.
In fact, I think probably cphoya's reaction to me pushing him and luckay was about as wolfy as it's possible to be. He simultaneously calls me and lucky a wolf
a villager might go "I'm not a wolf, see, I'm keen to vote the other guy!"
OR
"I'm not a wolf, you're a wolf"
but not both at once
that's classic "wolf trying to imitate villager play and copying two things that don't actually occur together"
Also, can I emphasise just how incredibly wolfy it is for cphoya to claim that him and luckay *can't* be w/w because they called each other wolves, as if bussing is something completely out of his wolf range?
Also I'm pretty happy about bobman being a villager
I don't think his weirdness with animalem/fv was wolfy weirdness
I think other than that event he has been extremely villagery
I'd be happy to clear him.
I'm afraid I can't really make a nice case on why he's villagery
but he makes reads
he pushes them
he has a villagery train of thought - his reads don't look fabricated
and his tone is ubervillagery.
I really, REALLY don't see how people are calling him an obvious wolf.
I'd be more inclined to call him an obvious villager.
I'm also more and more thinking that dean is probably one of the 4 wolves, I just have no idea which of gder/mets isn't a wolf
I'd really be decidedly uninclined to allow any of my 5 wolf leans to survive the game. We don't have *that* many mislynches left
can we please start lynching my wolves?
I feel like my reads are good
my cases are good
and you are all floundering around lynching my villager leans
it's pretty frustrating.
infact
if you lynch bobman
and he flips villa
you have to PROMISE
not to lynch alice.
don't be like "oh, alice pushed bob she must be wolf"
he's clear
she's clear
like donuts
I'd say eat a detective, but mets already has.
eaten a detective that is
cwidt?
Two Plus Two
If Bob is a wolf, who was he signaling on Thursday? 
the wolf team in this game is sick. i am sure of it. 
. I hope everybody considers this before concocting any wild theories about me being a wolf.
Importantly, he says he wants to lynch anarchist before filthy because filthy can maybe be cleared if anarchist is a wolf. He switched his vote to mets for now though.
Linear Mode
