Could I have the spade jack please?

If we knew the bad guys were going to play in notrump we'd pass, but they probably won't.

If partner has nothing, meaning the opponents are probably making 4H (or maybe even 3NT), then he will have no entries, and our well-located spade ten and diamond honors are in trouble. We will usually lose two spades, three diamonds, and a club, meaning that 4S is a good sacrifice at these colors, but only by a little (probably +3 IMPs). If the opponents aren't making game then we'll probably get another trick, but -300 will be a poor result in that case (-5 IMPs if they were stopping in a making partscore, -12 or so, iirc, if they were going to bid a failing game). If the spade jack doesn't take a trick against us we'll be +7 IMPs against their making game, probably +1 IMP against their partscore, and probably -5 IMPs against their failing game. Because we can't know about the diamond jack, what we have to think hardest about is whether their game, if they bid it, will make.

You have two very likely tricks (HA and DK) and one moderately likely one (in spades, with an honor, ruff, overruff, or trump promotion), particularly if RHO plays the hand (putting you on lead), plus a decent probability of a slow diamond, plus anything partner can contribute. That's a high enough likelihood that the bad guys are going down that a sacrifice isn't a good deal. I think I want to let opps bid to their normal spot, then try to set them.

Against very aggressive opponents I would bid 4S, because I can add to the above calculation that LHO holding a stiff spade and about six of a round suit may bid to a failing five-level contract. But otherwise, I don't like the advance sacrifice much, nor a delayed sacrifice much more. Sacrificing against games that might fail, or might not get bid, is not a good thing.

[I admit that all it takes to make game is for partner to have a diamond honor, the spade jack not to beat us, and the long diamond either to score (when they are 3-3 or partner has the ten, for example) or be ruffable (which is unlikely against good defense). I may just be too pessimistic tonight.]

I had the vulnerability reversed in my first post; given that we are white and they are red, the danger in getting doubled goes down and screwing with the opps goes up.

I'm gonna pass now, happy to defend a NT contract. I'll bid spades over hearts. I just think 4S is too likely to go down to go there immediately; there's only a spare 6-7 HCP out there, and partner would need most of them in the right spots to make.

as played, it made, LHO had 0hcp, partner showed up with the three low spades plus the heart king and queen-ten of diamonds. rho won diamond lead, cashed A, switched to diamonds which I win in hand. knock out A, ruff RHO's club continuation, draw the last trump and then run plainsuit winners until i just have trumps left. shame that it didn't get doubled really

Nice. Of course if you'd defended notrump that means you'd have set it, as the bad guys should take only two pointed aces plus how ever many clubs they can score, but that doesn't pay for your game. I would think against hearts or clubs you'd be likely to score two diamonds and two hearts, with maybe yet another trick somewhere, but you'd never double it.

First hand from our POG game. I'm dealing. IMPS, w/w

8 4
A K J T 8 6
Q 6 4
J 6

We're playing 2/1. Is it better to open this hand 2 or 1?

That's an opener in my book, but it's close.

1H. Still 1H without one of the jacks. 2H without the queen.

What Chris said, though note that the heart jack is worth considerably more than the club jack. And yes, it's close.

w/w imps

my hand
J9632

T5
AJT752

bidding goes

zhaorx RHO Me LHO
1NT 3H ?????

ugh friggan weirdos, how abotu a game of hearts? haha

you are drunk too huh?

Maybe 4H? I'm not exactly what it means, but you have 5 spades in case partner thinks its a transfer. You also wouldn't be too unhappy to correct to 5C I think.

Anything could work (or fail miserably) but I would try 3S (forcing). If pard has 3+ spades we'll play 4S. If not, he'll bid 3N and I'll bid 4C (could be right to pass 3N).

IMP tourney r/r

My hand
Q5432
92
953
T85

Bidding goes
RHO Me LHO FCBL
P P 1NT X
P ???

Am I really supposed to bail this out? If not when am I supposed to?

capp - 2s
dont - 2c
natural - 2s