Looking up hands after drinking is always fun and trying to remember them

Meh, I had to leave some room for other bids like 7S to sneak in underneath.

Best play for 12 tricks with hearts as trump?


A 8 2
A J 9 6 4
J 3
J T 4

K J 9
Q 7 2
A K 7 2
A K 5

Lead is the T, which gets covered with the Q by RHO if you play the J.

Is there a better line than "get 2 black finesses right" or "get the hearts to work perfectly, and then get one finesse right?"

eehmm - the lead?

any bidding by opps to help define their hands?

If he doesn't write it, you should assume there is none.

If you don't pick up the hearts (say they're Kxx with LHO and you played for the drop), if you ruff a diamond in there and then throw him in with the trump, you've probably endplayed him to take one of the two black finesses for you. Unfortunately, against competent defense, that just means that he'll give you the one that works anyway.

If you pick up the trumps without loss, and ruff diamonds out along the way, you can cash AK of one suit before taking the finesse in the other.

There may be some sort of show-up squeeze if you have picked up the trumps without loss, ruff one diamond, cash AK clubs and A spades, and then cash the last trump while you have

xx
x
-
J

opposite

KJ
-
x
x

; you throw a club and if RHO has everything, they're hosed.

I don't think any of these help much though.

I'm not sure what's right, but on this hand, I'm inclined to:

I'm playing in a local sectional and have two questions after the first session:
Hand 1:
W/W mps

K
Q84
A854
AT972

LHO deals and opens (we're silent)
1C-1H
1N-2D
2H-3H ap

Standard lead?


Hand 2:
W/W mps

AKT964
82
-
QJ984

Rho deals
(p)-1S-(X)-4S
(p)-p-(5C)-p
P-?

What's your bid?

Blah.

Playing trumps for the best chance at all tricks (beginning with running the queen), you pick them all up if LHO started with with KT tight, KT third, or K with any three. I haven't done the math but I think that's a bit over 20%. If you play it this way and lose no hearts, I think you're probably best off ruffing out the diamonds (probably cashing a top club along the way), taking a club hook, and hoping either that works, the spade works, or LHO has to return a spade. Of course, if hearts go 4–1 (length on your left) you could try eliminating diamonds before taking the club hoot, but there's no way that's ever going to be safe without opposing bidding.

The ~80% of the time you lose a heart, you still make it when you pick up both black suits, meaning both finesses on or stiff queen of either suit somewhere and the other hook on.

My first thought was start with heart ace, then diamond top and diamond ruff, then low to heart queen, winning when both finesses work and also when LHO started with stiff trump king plus when he has doubleton king and is endplayed... but he's just about never going to be endplayed, even if you manage to eliminate diamonds, when he has short hearts. (As DW explained, he just leads the black suit in which he doesn't have the queen; if he lacks them both you are making anyway and if he has them both you're down anyway, so there's an endplay only when he has one black queen and a stiff or void in the other black suit.) Not worth taking the reduced chance in hearts imo.

Hand 2 is a fist pump double. Are those clubs supposed to be diamonds or something?

1) I coinflip between the SK and DA. Probably the SK.

2) I smash it and go plus (leading the SA).

Hand 1: spade king. Yucky though. But I choose this because I'm never leading a diamond, there's no reason to lead either the club ace or a low one, the spade won't cost provided RHO doesn't have the ace (and he very likely doesn't), you may engineer a ruff, and if you don't get a ruff you probably still increase the chances of scoring your heart queen (because declarer is more likely to take a two-way finesse into you). It may also help generate tricks by force, unlike any other lead.

Hand 2: partner is void in clubs just about always, so you are making exactly 5S considerably more often than not (picture partner with QJxxx [anything] xxxx[anything] — and the likely lead of a top club), while 5C will very rarely be down more than two (and it could actually make). I suppose we could give partner a chance to pull our double with his void, if he's the type who will, but imo bidding 5S now increases the chances that I get doubled in it. Taking the pass-and-get-pulled route also diagnoses the void for opps, making a trump lead more likely (which is bad because with clubs on your right your only route to eleven tricks will probably be ruffing all five clubs).

Are you planning on setting it three tricks, or do you just not see the crossruff working?

If you're setting it big, I assume you're counting on one spade (which will happen about half the time, maybe slightly less on this auction), one heart (hoping partner has defense for his partner-I-have-no-defense bid), and three clubs (even though they're under declarer and he'll play them perfectly) — just doesn't seem right.

If you're just sure you're not making 5S I can understand, but it's cold on partner having any six and a majority of hands with QJxxx of spades unless they lead one, and if you don't tell them to they probably won't.

I can see doubling being correct. I cannot see it ever being fistpump correct.

Notice that for partner not to have a club void almost requires that LHO be exactly 2=2 in the blacks, and really works only if he's exactly 2=3=6=2 (else he'd be likely to correct out of 5C — only that shape is not safe for him to move with).

And if this is the setup, you still make 5S if partner has a the heart ace or maybe the king, which doubling and hoping for 800 pretty much needs too. Or if the lead is from KQ(J) of diamonds (unlikely but possible) and partner comes up with the ace.