Oh, sorry.

I would love a Mac video.

Is that game over/LL's role outed?

Yeah it ended earlier today.

If he was a villager in that game I can almost gurantee I can clear him from videos in the future and nail him as a wolf; I have the most amazing tells ever, can't share them but wow there's no way he can hide that ever

Am currently working on the simulation suggested by Kokiri. Some people are going to be very surprised by the results.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhh.

I think it's so brilliant that I need to leave it in some post encrypted and post the key to decrypt it once I decide there was enough abuse.

v0.1 now ready: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/59...ft-pog-676899/

I have sort of an "Optimal Bussing Strategy" idea floating around in my head, and I'll write out something longer, but I think I can sum it up as "always be bussing." I don't actually mean always, but more like the majority of times a fellow wolf is taking heat.

Relatedly, many players defend only in the wolf role. If you want the option of defending a wolf, you must sometimes defend as a villager, and it is therefore easier for your meta to never defend or to rarely defend (such that it's role independent because it's rare).

Thoughts?

That is extremely cool.

You should defend in any role, if you feel that you have good reasons to present for why a person is a villager

defend yourself, defend other people, what do you mean by defend?

Derail a wagon, mostly. I am aware of several players who only whine about a given wagon when they're a wolf and it's their partner, or they're seer and it's a peeked villager.

They should "whine" in every role.

Would it not be easier to - unless you're super confident of a read - simply not do this and, to compensate as a wolf, bus more frequently?

EDIT: Because that way when you try to derail as wolf or villager it's a rare event and approximately role neutral, and will be listened to more frequently, and as a wolf you will get some credit for busing because you are known to, sometimes, make strong defenses.

So I was thinking of the Monte Hall problem


Lets say its a 25 player game which is on d4, so 19 players left. You are a villager and you suspect 2 players equally, Player A and Player B.

You vote Player A.

The seer comes out with 4 villager peeks (neither of which is Player A or Player B).


Is voting Player B "due to Monty Hall" the correct move?

also, now that "bussing is always the right strat" is out there bussing suddenly becomes never the right strat

zomg