7/19 Lizards From Outer Space Game Thread

[tappokone]

Let's have a look-see:

Originally Posted by LuckayLuck

Luckay's Lists



Probably Village

HardcoreUFO: Due to "randed" villa and "how does that make me wolfy" (Post 160) - Also due to the "wording / style" of s p a c i n g out his emphasis (Post 146)

Metsyclaus: When he was near being lynched, posted a reads list. Kept up effort throughout the day. (Post 580)

Captain Binkles: A tremendous amount of effort with items such as an audio recording which I agreed on a lot (Post 190). At EOD, had heavy involvement and very publicly got a villager lynched - I "feel" like binkles would be more on the sly as a wolf.

ShipItUp: Guns blazing and his passion is very villagery right from the start (Post 64). Heavy involvement.

Olhado: Been making solid competent posts that feel like they're from a villager. (Post 570) Been re-evaluating. (Post 472)



Lean Village

Telcontar: (pending)

Happyfeet: Tone

El Timon: Werewolfing past his bedtime, solid efforts (Post 201).



Unknown and/or UTR

UAW
Tappokone
DonkDonkDonkDonk
TBobLP
Daisoujou



Wolfy

VarianceMinefield: Not as vigilant in reading posts carefully in order to discern information like villager Variance usually does - haven't seen any "deep" analysis - not necessarily in length, but just basically reads that delve into the mindset of a poster. He skipped one game day. He had interactions which were contradictory to what he "should" be feeling. (Post 585, Post 564)



VarianceMinefield

Originally Posted by LuckayLuck

Luckay's Lists
(Sorted alphabetically in each category)



Probably Village

Happyfeet: Combination of so many things makes him a clear villager in my book. The people who have been wagoning him, the votes he's been casting, his thoughts on the game are always topical and his tone is very villagery.

Metsyclaus: When he was near being lynched, posted a reads list. Kept up effort throughout the day. (Post 580) His reads list (Post 1040) and comment on "consensus not getting anywhere" is something I completely feel.

Telcontar: SHC - El Timon's death


Lean Village

Daisoujou: Genuine indecision in Post 990s, 1000s on Variance, astutely points out the connection with HappyFeet with the "right" side of Variance and Happy.

HardcoreUFO: Due to "randed" villa and "how does that make me wolfy" (Post 160) - Also due to the "wording / style" of s p a c i n g out his emphasis (Post 146). Conviction is indicative of villa play (Post 960s).

Tappokone: Felt he was UTR early but has really stepped up as the days have gone by. Strong analysis in Post 950s and 980s.


Unknown and/or UTR and/or Conflicted

Captain Binkles: A tremendous amount of effort with items such as an audio recording which I agreed on a lot (Post 190) AT THE TIME. At EOD, had heavy involvement and very publicly got a villager lynched - I "feel" like binkles would be more on the sly as a wolf. The wolfy part comes from the presence on the two lynches so far being on villagers and a constant "avoidance" of players I consider wolves. Binkles is a sly player and can put in lots of effort as a wolf.

DonkDonkDonkDonk: He's made more posts about himself and "leveling" / focusing attention away from him (Post 960s-980s) rather than the wolf hunting and village clearing stuff.

Olhado: Been making solid competent posts that feel like they're from a villager. (Post 570) Been re-evaluating. (Post 472) Strongly dislike his top suspects (Post 986, 987)

Reverend Wolf: Subbed in for ShipIt, who was guns blazing and villagery passion from the start (Post 64). Heavy involvement. Reverend Wolf has been dodgy as I point out in (Post 823). I feel like he's trying to buy me onto his side by being agreeable to me in (Posts 833-835).

UAW: Not very memorable to me.


Wolfy

VarianceMinefield: Not as vigilant in reading posts carefully in order to discern information like villager Variance usually does - haven't seen any "deep" analysis - not necessarily in length, but just basically reads that delve into the mindset of a poster. He skipped one game day. He had interactions which were contradictory to what he "should" be feeling. (Post 585, Post 564) Wagon on day two seemed to have a lot of resistance to it, even today a new suspect gets pushed over him (Donk) who while could be a wolf I feel that Variance has a much greater chance as he has still yet to really sink "villager teeth" into the game.



VarianceMinefield

He's clearly employing the same method of adding some text to his previous read. The question is, is that a reliable wolf tell for him? As far as I remember his reputation, he's supposed to be a really good wolf. Somehow I doubt he'd have such an obvious leak.

[VarianceMinefield]

Originally Posted by LuckayLuck

I did read the entire thread, skimmed

VarianceMinefield

Quick summary of a case on Variance:


1) Not as vigilant in reading posts carefully in order to discern information like villager Variance usually does

2) He skipped all of yesterday

3) Has had a lot of interaction with happyfeet that doesn't add up.


Variance: why are you voting someone who CLAIMS that you mindmelded him and is that true

Originally Posted by LuckayLuck

Luckay's Lists
(Sorted alphabetically in each category)



Probably Village

Happyfeet: Combination of so many things makes him a clear villager in my book. The people who have been wagoning him, the votes he's been casting, his thoughts on the game are always topical and his tone is very villagery.

Metsyclaus: When he was near being lynched, posted a reads list. Kept up effort throughout the day. (Post 580) His reads list (Post 1040) and comment on "consensus not getting anywhere" is something I completely feel.

Telcontar: SHC - El Timon's death


Lean Village

Daisoujou: Genuine indecision in Post 990s, 1000s on Variance, astutely points out the connection with HappyFeet with the "right" side of Variance and Happy.

HardcoreUFO: Due to "randed" villa and "how does that make me wolfy" (Post 160) - Also due to the "wording / style" of s p a c i n g out his emphasis (Post 146). Conviction is indicative of villa play (Post 960s).

Tappokone: Felt he was UTR early but has really stepped up as the days have gone by. Strong analysis in Post 950s and 980s.


Unknown and/or UTR and/or Conflicted

Captain Binkles: A tremendous amount of effort with items such as an audio recording which I agreed on a lot (Post 190) AT THE TIME. At EOD, had heavy involvement and very publicly got a villager lynched - I "feel" like binkles would be more on the sly as a wolf. The wolfy part comes from the presence on the two lynches so far being on villagers and a constant "avoidance" of players I consider wolves. Binkles is a sly player and can put in lots of effort as a wolf.

DonkDonkDonkDonk: He's made more posts about himself and "leveling" / focusing attention away from him (Post 960s-980s) rather than the wolf hunting and village clearing stuff.

Olhado: Been making solid competent posts that feel like they're from a villager. (Post 570) Been re-evaluating. (Post 472) Strongly dislike his top suspects (Post 986, 987)

Reverend Wolf: Subbed in for ShipIt, who was guns blazing and villagery passion from the start (Post 64). Heavy involvement. Reverend Wolf has been dodgy as I point out in (Post 823). I feel like he's trying to buy me onto his side by being agreeable to me in (Posts 833-835).

UAW: Not very memorable to me.


Wolfy

VarianceMinefield: Not as vigilant in reading posts carefully in order to discern information like villager Variance usually does - haven't seen any "deep" analysis - not necessarily in length, but just basically reads that delve into the mindset of a poster. He skipped one game day. He had interactions which were contradictory to what he "should" be feeling. (Post 585, Post 564) Wagon on day two seemed to have a lot of resistance to it, even today a new suspect gets pushed over him (Donk) who while could be a wolf I feel that Variance has a much greater chance as he has still yet to really sink "villager teeth" into the game.



VarianceMinefield

this is what he did in sheep game

he just continually restated his reads. that is NOT what he does as a villager

ever

he is always posting new information

also he said he hasnt been bouncing ideas off me but thats cause he has only been popping in and interacting as little as possible

its day 3? and he doesnt have any other wolf leans then me

he also skipped a game day. so he is wolfy by his own reads

[VarianceMinefield]

also i clearly am more villagery in the interaction with happyfeet

he is the one on the defensive trying to convince me he is a villager

i am clearly wolf hunting him.

he says that we mindmeleded so i should have a villager lean on him

but then he votes me

that is a slip up by happyfeet. he is trying to make me give him a villa lean and then votes me

wolves are more likely to cast those type of votes that dont make sense

[tappokone]

Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield

hardcore whats going on man

all of the games ive tried to stop your mislynch

if hardcores vote stays on me tonight, he is a wolf

Do you suppose that Ufo wouldn't misread you as a villager? I think he easily could, especially given that you haven't been as involved in the game as you usually are as a villager. In the Batman and Euro 2012 games Ufo had a lot of villagers as wolves. It didn't stop him from being a villager there.

It's also the case that him reading you as a villager because you had him as a villager would be an unfounded read. Even as a wolf you'd need to have some villagers as villagers, and a guy like Ufo who has some self-clearing tendencies and who you've traditionally read correctly is a good candidate.

[VarianceMinefield]

Originally Posted by tappokone

Do you suppose that Ufo wouldn't misread you as a villager? I think he easily could, especially given that you haven't been as involved in the game as you usually are as a villager. In the Batman and Euro 2012 games Ufo had a lot of villagers as wolves. It didn't stop him from being a villager there.

It's also the case that him reading you as a villager because you had him as a villager would be an unfounded read. Even as a wolf you'd need to have some villagers as villagers, and a guy like Ufo who has some self-clearing tendencies and who you've traditionally read correctly is a good candidate.

ive read hardcore right every single game

tappo you really think i am a wolf right now?

my last couple posts should convince you that i am a pure unmotivated villa

[VarianceMinefield]

the way hardcore is playing right now

he is accepting that he will be lynched at some point in this game

i am thinkign that based on being mislynched every game he plays and being annoyed by it

he would not sign up for this post restriction game and decide to just do the minimum

he should be motivated to put in effort and not be mislynched again

so i think he is a wolf

[VarianceMinefield]

TAPPO GET YOUR VOTE OFF OF ME NOW

i can feel you dont think im a wolf

[Olhado]

luckayluck

he's on every wolf list, yet no one wants to vote for him; that should say something about how likely he is to be a wolf. He makes like one contributory post a day.

I'm also getting the uneasy feeling that vmf is a villager who just doesn't give a crap, and luckay is feeding off of his disinterest. All he's wanted to do for the past 2 days is lynch vmf.

Luckay hasn't been a serious wagon candidate yet for no good reason other than that he's luckayluck. I can't recall a single person calling him villagery; he's only ever unknown at best.

[tappokone]

Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield

ive read hardcore right every single game

tappo you really think i am a wolf right now?

my last couple posts should convince you that i am a pure unmotivated villa

I thought you made some villagery posts late on day one, but outside of that it has been such slim pickings. Today you've been mostly attacking people who can be cleared anyway if you flip wolf, which doesn't convince me that you're a villager. The Luckay pull is potentially good, but it's doubtful without a lot of research to verify it, and I just don't have the time now.

[tappokone]

Originally Posted by VarianceMinefield

the way hardcore is playing right now

he is accepting that he will be lynched at some point in this game

i am thinkign that based on being mislynched every game he plays and being annoyed by it

he would not sign up for this post restriction game and decide to just do the minimum

he should be motivated to put in effort and not be mislynched again

so i think he is a wolf

Ufo has said that he's travelling. He said the same thing in the Batman game and it proved to be true. Once he got back home, normal service resumed.

[vixticator]

Votes as of post 1105
Night in 05:08
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
5	VarianceMinefield	Daisoujou (11), hardcoreUFO (8), LuckayLuck (3), tappokone (23), UAW710 (10)
3	Donkdonkdonkdonk	captain binkles (17), HappyFeet (21), Reverend Wolf (5)
2	LuckayLuck	Olhado (10), VarianceMinefield (18)
1	captain binkles	Donkdonkdonkdonk (15)
2	not voting	Metsy Claus (3), Telcontar (9)

[VarianceMinefield]

Originally Posted by Olhado

luckayluck

he's on every wolf list, yet no one wants to vote for him; that should say something about how likely he is to be a wolf. He makes like one contributory post a day.

I'm also getting the uneasy feeling that vmf is a villager who just doesn't give a crap, and luckay is feeding off of his disinterest. All he's wanted to do for the past 2 days is lynch vmf.

Luckay hasn't been a serious wagon candidate yet for no good reason other than that he's luckayluck. I can't recall a single person calling him villagery; he's only ever unknown at best.

olhado is a likely villager

Villager
Binkles
Telc

OlHado
UAW710(the aggression he came at me with seemed villager)
Daisoju

Unsure
happyfeet(idk)
Metsy Claus(i had him as villagery but he hasnt done much recently and mets had him as a strong wolf lean?)
Tappo(never seen his wolf game, if he votes me then wolf lean)
hardcoreufo(i will read him later)


Wolf
LuckayLuck
reverend Wolf
donkdonkdonkdonk

[VarianceMinefield]

Originally Posted by tappokone

I thought you made some villagery posts late on day one, but outside of that it has been such slim pickings. Today you've been mostly attacking people who can be cleared anyway if you flip wolf, which doesn't convince me that you're a villager. The Luckay pull is potentially good, but it's doubtful without a lot of research to verify it, and I just don't have the time now.

why is it potentially goood?

it is clear he is doing the same thing in both games

restating reads

not reevaluating them

not taking into consideration how a villager could play like me

tappo you need to get off of me NOW

what is your read on luckay?

im not pushing people based on spew

i am posting whatever i think

bring up anybody and ill say anything.

[Olhado]

village has been failing ... time to break open the game

vote luckay

tappo, this means you.

[tappokone]

I wish I could stay for EoD, but I'd be so very dead tomorrow. I'll leave my vote where it is.