3/8 Detective Conan Vanilla Game Thread

[magic_gazz]

425, you are completly wrong and Binkles is 100% correct.

If the wolves leave Binkles alive till final 3 and we lynch him there we auto lose. How do you not get this?

[425kid]

Originally Posted by magic_gazz

I must say I find these interesting. Andrews list is exactly the same except he has removed his name and added dave.

Funny that both lists have me and binkles on too.

Anyone care to comment on this?

I think the first list is pretty good. second one is lolwolf

[425kid]

Originally Posted by magic_gazz

425, you are completly wrong and Binkles is 100% correct.

If the wolves leave Binkles alive till final 3 and we lynch him there we auto lose. How do you not get this?

No i know that. I just think our win percentage is higher that way.

[425kid]

6 mislynches make us lose. if wolves dont nk binkles 1 of our lynches goes on him. so 5 other lynches. regardless of when we lynch him

If binkles is the last wolf we win.

If he's a villager then him being alive for all 5 lynches and having 100% control over the f5 lynch is way better than him being alive for 4.

[AndrewGreve]

Originally Posted by 425kid

1. That's only true if they think letting him work and mislynching him is worse for them than just nking him

2. You said they could abuse my plan by letting him live and auto winning at must lynch.

3. If binkles is a wolf my plan auto wins.

POINTS ONE AND TWO COMPLETELY CONTRADICT EACH OTHER.

HOW IS THIS HARD TO UNDERSTAND.

I already quoted the post

The bolded part is wrong.

Actually in regards to your game theory, all I said was that it is exploitable as most absolutes are. If binkles is a wolf we do not win unless he is the last wolf. We can get to must lynch with two wolves left.

let me try explaining this again.
things I said:

If binkles is a wolf he will not be NKed, so not being Nked makes it more likely he is a wolf.

If binkles is a wolf he should be Nked by the wolves, not being NKed points to him being wolf

Creating a village consensus that AutoLynch binkles at mustlynch is exploitable.

All of these are true.
In fact creating an autolynch at mustlynch policy increases the chances wolves leave villa binkles alone till then by alot.
My pressing binkles increases the chances wolves leave villa binkles alone by a little.

The fact binkles was not NKed is not a huge amount of +wolf by itself. it was part of my thoughts on him.
Im currently looking at bremen per binkles request. I need to do alot of reading anyways as I skimmed all yesterday

[425kid]

Originally Posted by AndrewGreve

The bolded part is wrong.

Actually in regards to your game theory, all I said was that it is exploitable as most absolutes are. If binkles is a wolf we do not win unless he is the last wolf. We can get to must lynch with two wolves left.

let me try explaining this again.
things I said:

If binkles is a wolf he will not be NKed, so not being Nked makes it more likely he is a wolf.

If binkles is a wolf he should be Nked by the wolves, not being NKed points to him being wolf

Creating a village consensus that AutoLynch binkles at mustlynch is exploitable.

All of these are true.
In fact creating an autolynch at mustlynch policy increases the chances wolves leave villa binkles alone till then by alot.
My pressing binkles increases the chances wolves leave villa binkles alone by a little.

The fact binkles was not NKed is not a huge amount of +wolf by itself. it was part of my thoughts on him.
Im currently looking at bremen per binkles request. I need to do alot of reading anyways as I skimmed all yesterday

ITS NOT EXPLOITABLE. thats like saying shoving Q10 from the small blind with antes in play is exploitable if the BB wakes up with AA. The play is unexploitable. That doesn't mean it never loses. What definition of exploitable are you using

[AndrewGreve]

Originally Posted by captain binkles

You should probably include all the villagery stuff I've done when considering my role too Andrew. Like saving Mac, getting Monte lynched, saving Steve, etc.

Also the 'speed' with which I found the peek is a little silly. Because I originally thought the peek was me = villa, and I was legit tilted because I was such an obvious villa anyway that we lose a seer cleared player.

I dont know mac is villa or steve.
I remember YG pushing hard for monte. His request mad me vote him.
I have not forgotten what you have done and have not voted today yet. I was providing the village with my current thoughts.

[VarianceMinefield]

Originally Posted by Anarchist

frist!

Originally Posted by younguns87

.....It's like he's been f5ing since 6pm to make sure he's first

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

or he's wolfing obv

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

I'm actually kind've excited for this game.

Not sure if I should be embarrassed, considering the theme.

Originally Posted by Anarchist

nope, not wolfing

just got my computer back at 9:45 and remembered thread was gonna be open at 10

Originally Posted by FN2339

sup fellow villas

Originally Posted by younguns87

I can buy that

Anarchist

k 1 down, 3 to go

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

lol where does it say the thread will be open at 10?

Originally Posted by Anarchist

youngungs

wanna thunderdome?

Originally Posted by younguns87

How did you know thread was opening up at 10?

Originally Posted by FN2339

nooooooooooooooo you shouldn't i've been following it for 10+years dude

fan to the bitter end ! (nowhere near in sight)

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

OH BABY WE GOT ONE

Originally Posted by Anarchist

IN THE ****ING SIGNUP YOU IDIOTS

Originally Posted by younguns87

I'll win...You know that right?

Originally Posted by Anarchist

ok i don't care, im gonna die and flip villa and you'll go next

Originally Posted by Anarchist

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...7&postcount=76

cause you guys are moronotrons

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

such a suckout

Originally Posted by Anarchist

yg and tweedy confirmed woalves who don't read

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

anarchist mad

Originally Posted by younguns87

doubtful. I think I've been mislynched one time in non-turbos since i've been in pog and haven't been mislynched in any game in like 5 months. My wolf/villa games have gotten far apart sadly

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

fn2339 join the fun!

I see you lurking

Originally Posted by Anarchist

it won't be a mislynch

and if you push me i'll make sure you go next anyway

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

fn2339 desperately trying to find something to comment on imo

tweedybirdd

it is super unnatural for tweedy to just vote fn there when younguns and anarchist are basically beginning a thunderdome

tweedy is trying to defuse the situation and help annie

[captain binkles]

Can we just agree to leave me off the table until ML+1 and then instead of autolynching me we just consider everything?

Then we can stop wasting time with this ridiculousness.

I really hope that VMF puts in some work today.

Also the village can only mislynch 4 times, the 5th mislynch is a wolf win

[425kid]

Originally Posted by AndrewGreve

If binkles is a wolf he should be Nked by the wolves

Creating a village consensus that AutoLynch binkles at mustlynch is exploitable.

In fact creating an autolynch at mustlynch policy increases the chances wolves leave villa binkles alone till then by alot.

The last part is a good thing DUCY.

(hint: see your first sentence)

[captain binkles]

Nice crosspost VMF

Did you see I found a post of yours amazingly villagery earlier? But nobody except for Bowens tried to decipher why

[AndrewGreve]

Originally Posted by 425kid

ITS NOT EXPLOITABLE. thats like saying shoving Q10 from the small blind with antes in play is exploitable if the BB wakes up with AA. The play is unexploitable. That doesn't mean it never loses. What definition of exploitable are you using

How are you so sure binkles will catch the last two wolves? or even one more? Putting that much faith in one person is exploitable.

but I was referring to telling the wolves exactly what we are going to do is exploitable and leads to an auto win for them if we get into that situation, which is exactly one village mislynch earlier than the actual win condition. Game theory would suggest getting to that situation if they can. In addition it allows the opposite situation, binkles is a wolf, the oppurtunity to have a wolf lead alot of the discussion and decisions till f5(where you have given the wolf the lynch) if two wolves are alive and force a f3.

do you tell the table your shove range while in the SB? I would describe that as exploitable.

[425kid]

Originally Posted by captain binkles

Can we just agree to leave me off the table until ML+1 and then instead of autolynching me we just consider everything?

Then we can stop wasting time with this ridiculousness.

I really hope that VMF puts in some work today.

Also the village can only mislynch 4 times, the 5th mislynch is a wolf win

ya my bad. same point tho

[425kid]

Originally Posted by AndrewGreve

do you tell the table your shove range while in the SB? I would describe that as exploitable.

Thats the whole definition of unexploitable... You can turn your cards over, show the big blind before he plays and the all in is still +ev for you. You're using a really weird definition of exploitable.

[magic_gazz]

Originally Posted by 425kid

6 mislynches make us lose. if wolves dont nk binkles 1 of our lynches goes on him. so 5 other lynches. regardless of when we lynch him

If binkles is the last wolf we win.

If he's a villager then him being alive for all 5 lynches and having 100% control over the f5 lynch is way better than him being alive for 4.

I think I see what your saying, but I disagree. If WolfBinkles is alive at final 3 there is a good chance he could convince the villagers to vote eachother, also if VillagerBinkles is alive at final 3 there is a chance he could get mislynched.

Its all sorts of bad if he is alive at final 3. Final 5 is fine.