I messed up the title it should be big bet on river not allin

Villains stats:
546 hands
vpip 81 pfr 45
donk flop 7
3bet 19 fold 3bet 43 fold to 4bet 60
cbet flop 60 cbet turn 40 cbet river (67 2/3)
flop af 1 turn af 2 river af 3
wtsd 39

villain: posts small blind $0.50
The_Reginald: posts big blind $1
The_Reginald: dealt [7s 8d]
villain: raises $2
The_Reginald: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [8c 7h 5s]
The_Reginald: bets $2.45
villain: raises $7.50
The_Reginald: calls $5.05
*** TURN *** [8c 7h 5s] [2c]
The_Reginald: checks
villain: bets $10
The_Reginald: calls $10
*** RIVER *** [8c 7h 5s] [2c] [Qh]
The_Reginald: checks
villain: bets $40
The_Reginald: calls $40

Good or bad call on river? He sometimes would bluff raise me then check the turn and river. But this time he bet the river. Hes a pretty fishy player that I think is a loose passive calling station. He sometimes bets really small, really big, pot bluffs, over bets etc. Plays almost any 2 cards preflop.

Depends on villain, have you ever seen them take this line with air? If you honestly believe they're loose passive then a fold should definitely be considered.

I don't really think it's going to be a fold all that often though. I would reexamine your assumption that villain is a fish. Based on all of the information you've given, villain seems possibly loose, but not really all that passive.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Fold. If it were normal size, call. Why did you donk the flop? That size isn't really good with that hand.

The half pot turn bet followed by pot river is unusual. It indicates a weaker turn hand, on average, which improved by the river. It may be just that. So you could estimate 1.5 combos of QQ played that way and about 3 combos of Q8. That's enough to be a legit concern by the river (this is another reason flop donking doesn't pay well, he can rep major fractions of every hand there is as the agressor). Of course all the other sets and straights will play that way some % of the time, but they will need to be discounted. The turn bet is about .66 normal. Discounting by a factor of .66 from the normal number of combos in villain's range that's ahead is a good approximation. So by the river a good guess at our equity might be 20/25 combos, which is to say we tie the 20th nut combo in villains range, which is about 25 combos wide. We would need to tie about the 17th nut combo to call.

idk the flop 3bet is fishy on such a dry board. dont think alot of villians are doing that with 8x combos . its like exlusively sets and 69 combos played like **** imo. dont even know what bluffs a sane person would have there 9Tclubs maybe ( but turn bet would be even more odd). only beating TT, JJ ,KK ,AA on river i think its a fold.

I can't blame you for calling here heads up. Flop raise and value bet sizing on the turn screams red flag, but a balanced opponent could play a number of hands this way (910, 86, 76, 56, A6, TT+) alongside sets, 46 and 96. Personally, I would've c/r jammed the turn against loose aggressive villain.

We don't know stack sizes but laying 2:1 a xr shove shouldn't be a value bet, or anywhere close to one. By "shouldn't" I mean "isn't against the population", which is the only thing that matters vs anyone save Bad Mofo's. And you shouldn't be playing them, ever. We're in this to get money, not raped. Right?

Upthread I was trying to start a fight by stating a litany of contentious premises from which I glibly draw authoritative conclusions. No one will lace up. The reason: mortal fear of giving up a tenth of a percent. Wondering where the complimentary coffee is around here will get you the label of "self-entitled douche". This industry counts basis points at the dollar store. It's f***ed.


Poker in its natural state is a hustle but its online subspecies has evolved identifiable traits of a con. On a hustle the mark always gets a fair shake. The hustler takes on real risk and the mark has a reasonable chance to win a meaningful stake. The hustler never lies, instead counting on superior skill to come out ahead over the long haul. But a con necessarily involves fraud. The mark is lied to, told they have a chance when they don't. Terms of the bet are materially misrepresented and proximately cause loss.

Western civilization can tolerate hustlers. They provide liquidity, grease wheels. Con men it cannot.

What?

Actually he's raised and bet so small a turn shove will be laying way less than 2:1, meaning its even less of a value shove. Normally a turn shove after two aggressive moves, not counting the open raise, and a turn bet at 100bb should be laying something like 2:1, but not here.

As far as the rest, just as one example I never donked flops so I have no idea how much IP raises donks. I assumed 10%. I suspect its less though. Another contentious conclusion is that we should simply fold because our equity (estimated through my mostly unshown methodology) vs value range indicates we don't have pot odds. Game theory of course says we need to choose a group of bluffcatchers such that we maintain an unexploitable river calling frequency. But my conclusion ignores that.

If we want to start a conversation the idea is to say sht that some people will agree with but more importantly that some will disagree with, preferably strongly. The more contentious the better because its only human nature upon reading an ill-formed or lopsided opinion on which subject you know a great deal to snap at the chance to correct it.

One of the best groups to target for this sort of thing is the people who "know enough to be dangerous". By dint of their youth, passion and intelligence they're almost always game for vigorous debate. You'll note their total absence from this subforum. You've got a few globe trotting Ubermenschen dropping crumbs to pigeons and you have illiterate sharecroppers and not much in between, no second year law student types.

You may so far be disinclined to trust me but trust me on this one thing: if you're looking for a good business to pursue the foregoing is a very, very bad sign.

Instead we have the ubermenschen who are all too acutely aware of the shifting sands on which their various empires lie, sitting it out in the swanky confines of their various press boxes and hotel suites. Let the rabble bicker among themselves, our comments would do us no good. Of course they're right. The class consciousness is strong. In perilous times even more so.

In this business giving up basis points is inhaling water.

Few things to consider here.
- How often do you donkbet and how often has he raised your donkbets?
- Is he capable of doing this as a bluff or not? If so, your hand is so under represented that you should be calling given the run out or else you'll exploited too often.
- What is the purpose of your donkbet?

a) Is it mainly to induce a raise or b) to get value from hands he'd check back. If it's a) then I don't like doing it on this draw heavy board because there are a lot of bad run outs that make it difficult for us to call a shove on the river. He can easily shove on any card that completes a straight given that you never play a straight or straight draw this way. x/c accomplishes the same thing but does not bloat the river and makes it harder for him to define your range. If it's b) and he's never raised your donkbet in over 500 hands the it's a clear fold. Also his flop sizing is suspicious to me because it looks like he's trying to induce a call.