River:(84 BB, 2 players) Q BB bets 55 BB, Hero raises to 142.52 BB and is all-in, BB calls 87.52 BB
Is it too thin raising on the river? OTF I think my sizing is too big because it just strengthens his range when he calls, however on the river it works in our favour since he shouldn't have too many floats with that sizing.
Spoiler:
Hero shows Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 19%, Flop 0.1%, Turn 0%) BB shows K K (Three of a Kind, Kings)
(Pre 81%, Flop 99.9%, Turn 100%) BB wins 367.54 BB
really your beat by AKc and pocket kings on the river , maybe KTc but i doubt it. but its seems really likely villian has kings or AKc . unless i knew the villian well enough id just call river. i dont think your getting value from enough hands that you beat on river.
I 100% think that this is too thin and just a call is much better. This bet is COMPLETELY polarized. This indicative of nutted hands. He will have KK, depending on the player he can have AT, he can DEFINITELY have a hand like AKs with the nut flush. He can have sets of anything as well. What purpose does jamming serve? Like....he isn't getting here with KJ, KQ, often enough with the Preflop action, and when he is - is he really just going wild on the river with two pair? Did he get here with 77 or 33? Like...what worse hands are you expecting to call your shove? There aren't nearly enough against a good player for that to be a profitable line. Call river, you scoop it when he somehow manages to get here with bluffs (he's not getting here with many at all) you scoop it when he has jacks (somewhat often) and maybe you scoop when he bets too think with hands like AKo with Ac. Bottom line: you aren't beating enough of his value range here to justify making a shove the most profitable line.
don't know where you've been playing last few years, but if villian is remotly is competent preflop, vast majority of KJ, KQ and 77 combos take this exact line (3betting and flatting a 4bet), with 33 is doing so at low frequency. Also, jacks.