oppo or 76 call 3bet 41, fold 55
we play 184x effective
In the turn he can have 9x, TT, 96/86, set+, gutshot, flushdraw, JT
In the river I called because I thought it was polarized, but with that size I do not think so...
I have a hard time folding these rivers even though I have a feeling I'm cooked. Turn has to be some kind of value bet or else he would've bet flop, I think, and when he bets river, too, he has to be somewhat confident he's getting good value. Or no?
I have a hard time thinking that the river bet is a bluff as its just typically not a spot that the population of thinking headsup players are going to continue on.
My line of thought how most are going to play most bluff lines on this board is as follows.
The JT and JQ are probably going to start on the flop, given they have enough Equity that they are happy building the pot now and we are deep. No flushdraws at this point
The 6 brings some additional straight draws and the clubdraw, Some players will bet their Ax or Kx of clubs here, probably moreso since it's deep and you've checked twice. Also since you are deep, if he had 45s that called and decided was a total giveup on the flop (As I'm going to assume he knows almost no one is 3bet checkfolding that flop.) he might stab here.
7x would also probably be betting here but hey we block half of the sevens so we should take some bluff out here
River is a brick to all but the very seldom 45s. It is not going to be a common spot for bluffs to continue. Kx of clubs might put in a crying bet and try to get a fold out of an A high hand. I'm feeling like most of the population is highly weighted towards value here. I'm very fearful of a weak 9 / strong 8 in this spot and I think the villain played his hand well. In my opinion hes close to freerolling on a bet here as you're almost never going to show up with better. I think you just have to fold river as played because he should be slam dunk calling a raise here expecting a weaker hand trying to turn into a bluff.
I don't know about the dynamic of the game but if you raised the turn you might be able to rep a set or 2pair but I think its still a fairly hard sell as you're probably expected and expecting any really big hands to just lead the turn here.