Since reading a lot of info on this forum (from very interesting and helpful people), I have started putting deep thought into WHY you perform a certain action at the poker table.

For example:

If you have a full house but there is a flush out there that you are almost certain you're aggressive opponent has, then a lead bet might be a good idea to encourage a 3bet from your opponent. On the other hand, a check raise might be more profitable against a tight player who has the same hand..

This is all circumstantial but gives an example of a clear cut reason WHY someone might make a certain play. The reason being to make more money out of the hand.


My question is, how do you determine what play will give you the maximum +EV on a certain type of board against a certain type of player.

Example:

You have AK-AJ in the CO / BB and raise it like you have been lets say 35-40% of the time. The 40/35 donk in the BB calls like he has always done. Flop comes: 755 (2 flush cards).

How do you extract the most money from him?!?!

I find myself in this spot a lot and I almost always think I'm ahead due to the BB having such a wide range..

So do I value bet? I'm not sure. How many worse hands than mine will call on that kind of flop? Any straight draw / Flush draw plus perhaps other A high hands?

So do I check? I'm not sure! If I know I'm ahead then this might be a way to let him take a shot at the pot on the turn if a J or something comes down.. Maybe that will generate more money in the long run than the standard blind steal - Cbet (which he will very likely fold to).

This seems to me one of those occurances where the term 'protecting your hand' is banded around. I understand that AK is likely to be best on the flop but perhaps there are a lot of turn cards that can beat your hand so you want to protect your winning hand by betting.

I understand this concept, but is it another way of saying they are value betting?? Can those two terms ever mean different things??

Surely sometimes trying to protect your hand isn't going to win as much in this spot as checking to induce a bluff? I suppose its vaillian dependant.


I have no idea how much of this post makes sense, but I'd be interested to see other peoples ideas on this.

I guess to paraphrase the question:

IS C-BETTING IN THIS SPOT LIKELY TO BE THE BEST +EV PLAY?

Obviously we can't stand a raise here, but one street of value is definitely available a large percentage of time on dry boards.

Therefore, for me the standard here is..

cbet/fold.

check behind if unimproved.

evaluate river.

To answer your question c-betting the flop is definitely mega +EV in this spot.

Here are some reasons we bet there:

- for value, as he can c/c with worse ace-high hands and draws
- for protection, as we don't want to let his random J9o hands spike a pair on the turn for free
- to set up bluffs, as we can fire again when scary cards hit and make him fold his pocket pairs
- for deception, as betting often creates an aggressive image that will help us get paid, and he can't ever be sure if we have a big hand or just ace-high

So hopefully he just folds now and we pick up the pot right here. If he doesn't, we still can spike an ace or a king, and possibly decide to keep firing if scary cards fall.

we cbet because on that flop it is very hard for villain to improve his hand. We will not get called by worse (well sure ppl float, but at least it's not our goal), we will not fold out better at least too often so we're just betting to take down the pot and/or making villain fold his equity share. And betting also protects our hand but it's not really the main reason since we have Ahi, not much to protect there. And betting also prevents us from being bluffed off the best hand/good equity which will happen quite often when we check.
We can't check to induce bluffs bc our hand isn't nearly strong enough to bluffcatch multiple streets. If we check it's simply to c/f.

All of these questions you ask have one answer: it depends. There should always be room for adjustments.

Against a loose passive bad callingstation you want to cbet your AQ high on the 755ss flop for value/protection. But lets say this guy bets alot of turns with air whenever you check behind you want to check behind and let him bet the turn. Or maybe he folds a lot to cbets but never fold's PP's on boards like this and is never aggro. In that case its ok to check it down because you have the best hand alot and will never get a call by worse. So betting for protection is kind of meaningless if you have the best hand so often.

There is a certain set of 'optimal' plays that are based on the avg playerpool (which depends on the stake), that are described in a lot of literature and in articles on this site. Not all of these concepts apply to the level/site/hour of the day etc you are playing.

Whenever we make a play readless it can be the wrong play against that particular opponent but we are still making a winning play based on the average player.

Ok, thanks guys - very helpful!

Just to be clear for one of the post above talking about bluffing scare cards. There are not many ways to make strong hands on this flop 77,55, and 5x, which a 40/35 donk can have. So there are more marginal hands in range that will not be able to take pressure on certain turn cards. If a T, J, Q, K, or A hit the turn that does not improve your hand you still can fire a profitable turn bet vs a lot of villains as they are weak-tight. Becareful not to pick a stubborn fish who will not fold 22 on 755K turn, where checking might be acceptable to improve.