In regards to the 40% 4bet the sample size was merely 50 hands. Like fityfmi stated earlier the seemingly most likely possibility here is that it is a 2/5 4bet situation. So, I wouldn't weigh a ton into this. Furthermore, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if there were dynamics regarding 3bets/4bets early in matches within 50NL zoom that could make 4betting pre fairly early in matches rather profitable (again, I don't know, I don't/haven't played 50NL zoom). Therefore, I have to naturally take what I recall from my time at 50NL/100NL when evaluating opponent 4bet ranges around this stack depth.

Because I would likely be 5betting pre in this spot, I haven't taken a ton of time to think about how it affects my range here if I flat pre. I don't hate x/jam turn (however, I disagreed with your previous reasoning). I'm interested in hearing peoples' thoughts in regards to our own range and our opponent's range in this spot that lead people to x/jam > x/c turn evaluate river as well as what the cutoff is for our turn x/jam. Maybe Spladle/others can chime in.

i mean just look at this:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

880 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 37JK

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AdKs	52.95%	334	264
KQ,AK,AA,JJ	47.05%	282	264

dont tell me anybody is b/f KQ here. even if he just calls with the top of his range we are ahead.

Huh??? What does this range prove? We all already know he shouldn't be folding these hands (and thats even if he 4bets KQ).

Given that it seems like a lot of your ranges/posts are now coming off as confusing/and slightly contradictory IMO, how can you say there are no two pair combos in the top of his range if you are saying he is 3betting hands like J5s, K2s that would play this way?

Regardless this seems to be derailing this thread (especially in regards to how the hand actual played out and our river decision), so I'll hold off until others chime in.

this range is an example.

noone is able to come up with a realistic turn range we arent ahead off.

i still fold the river, knowing that we propably fold >80% of our range if we fold this hand

Because the board is so insanely draw-heavy and the SPR is so low, stack-off ranges in this spot should loosen significantly, encouraging us to check/jam both a wide value range and a fair number of semi-bluffs. Furthermore, the fact that the board is so draw-heavy means check/calling the turn will lead to a river sub-game where we are at a significant ex-showdown equity disadvantage.

I don't think every hand we x/jam should be better than every hand we x/c, so it's not sensible to speak of a "cutoff" for a x/jam in this spot. For example, I think AJ plays better as a x/c, but all other combos of AJ play better as a x/jam.

At the time I kind of felt like I didn't have an overall read on his aggression other than the pf stats I posted which don't mean much.

Turn raise approaching 2:1, no straight possible 2X2 flush 1 oesd many gs.

Are you expecting to get called by any >=gs+pair and fd+pair hand? I would at a minimum be time banking all of those hands vs a shove and desperately looking for info in notes or stats. I would likely be folding with many of the weaker ones vs many players.

there are no gs+ pair combination possible.
folding a fd+pair to a c/r getting 2:1 would be pretty bad imo, just run a few sims and you will see.

Thanks for giving out all of these detailed responses Spladle.

that was basically what i said.

i dont really know why it is so hard to come to this conclusions by yourself.

There are actually 2 oesd possible.

There are no gs+pair combos, this isn't Omaha. OE+FD and pair+FD hands should snap-call the turn shove though, yes.

Okay, well that would be a mistake.

*Looks at Spladle's Posts*

bro...

Yeah that was ******ed I think I meant fd+gs but I may have actually believed those combos were possible at the time My point was I would be folding 89cc type hands vs quite a few players.

Dammit missed the double gutter too. But I have to throw out for the sake of frivolous semantics that it is technically still a gs!