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NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ???

06-03-2014 , 03:13 AM
Opp: pfr 56, 3b 26, no stats on ft4b, ft3b 63%(8), wtsd 36%, Donk bet flop 29%.

Should I 4bet with bigger size here?

Almost shure flop and turn calls not bad, but river is tough for me.



BB: $40.71 (81.4 bb)
Hero (SB): $53.82 (107.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q Q
Hero raises to $1, BB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($8) K 9 5 (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($18) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $11.50, Hero calls $11.50

River: ($41) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $20.21 and is all-in, Hero calls $20.21
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-03-2014 , 08:19 AM
If I was going to 4 bet then I would make it bigger because he just min raised you. The only problem is that when a fish min raises he normally has a really strong range or he is a complete monkey. You could consider shoving over his bet since he only has 80BB and he will probably gamble with you with hands like AK, AQ, AJ, KQs etc. He might call with TT and JJ as well.

I would probably fold the flop. That sounds exceptionally dumb but vs a fish's min raising range that calls a 4 bet you're probably in really bad shape here. It's not exploitable to fold because of how strong his range likely is and also that you're going to likely win a lot of money from him when you do hit the flop.

People will say it's wrong to fold but even if it were +EV to call it quickly becomes a -EV situation if he is going to barrel you and you're going to have to fold or hero call him. Further, it's not really worth the variance if say calling this down made you 10 cents more than if you just folded on the flop BUT calling is almost certainly GTO but we arn't vs a player who is playing GTO so we can exploit him by folding. Also, I would obviously never fold the flop vs a reg.
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-04-2014 , 03:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ravzar
I would probably fold the flop.
Never folding flop when non-auto topping 50nl villain takes this line. Never.
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-04-2014 , 08:22 AM
Well what range do you put an unknown fish's min raise/call 4 bet on that now donk bets this flop? The question is one of ranges. I think it's most likely AK and KQ and possibly some other Kx and then some spade draws like AsQs etc. I don't know if fish would lead out with TT or JJ on this board. In fact I am quite certain that's not a common tendency for fish. I say it's Kx or better and flush draws. The problem is I don't think he has enough flush draws in his range to offset all the Kx and better he would have. Others may disagree and think the ranges are different so will reach a different conclusion.

I think even if calling here is +EV it's only more marginally +EV than just folding. Since this situation might not ever come up again or at least very rarely (possibly less than one time in 20,000 hands may a fish reraise you, call a 4 bet, then donk the flop) it's not going to matter for your overall win rate so I tend to just take the route of less variance.

Vs a person with a balanced bluff range the flop is a +EV call, most turn bets, half to 3/4 pot will be +EV but the larger the bet the worse calling becomes. If he pots the turn it starts getting to be -EV and we can't call a shove. A 3/4 bet on the turn is an extremely marginal call and at any rate we would need to fold the river unimproved. This makes sense since obviously the the size of that turn bet means we need to call less in theory to be unexploitable in that spot. The reason the flop is a call is because QQ is high enough in our range that if we didn't call it, our defending range here would be too weak. However, this does not mean we can't make an exploitable fold if we don't think the villain is bluffing enough here or has enough bluffs in his range.

Last edited by Ravzar; 06-04-2014 at 08:29 AM.
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-04-2014 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lazaro
Never folding flop when non-auto topping 50nl villain takes this line. Never.
I would say never fold ANYWHERE vs these type of people
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-05-2014 , 04:27 AM
Calling the river seems loose. I wouldn't be surprised if villain showed up with AA actually. I have to disagree with post #5. Think its very likely that villain has a strong hand here.
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-06-2014 , 04:23 AM
lol donkeys have 94o all day here
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-06-2014 , 11:56 AM
tilting for sure if he shows AA which he decided to go wnb-tricky with but i definitely call. fd missed and i can see fishes taking this line with hands like JT,JQ. cant really fold vs these type of people

Last edited by Jeenge; 06-06-2014 at 12:06 PM. Reason: changed my opinion after taking a closer look
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-06-2014 , 12:12 PM
i 4 bet pre to +/-$7

as played you called the flop and turn so you cant fold this river
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote
06-07-2014 , 02:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apoccd10I
lol donkeys have 94o all day here
Totally agree but how do we know after such a small sample, what 35 hands? Is he a donk or a short stacking nit? I hate using pfr but at 56 that leans towards nit imo.

When he turns over AA after our call it feels slimy and I doubt if calling QQ is right readless OTR.
NL50 - QQ 4bet pot second pair vs donker, river ??? Quote

      
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