Villain is a fairly NL400 standard reg. He's pretty straightforward overall and seems like an ok handreader. I've been donkbetting a bit but at this point he doesn't have a reason to think that my range for doing it is particularly strong or weak; he probably has no idea about what kind of range I'm donking w/ because nothing was shown down yet in this spot. He had toned down his cbetting and he knows that I could very well be donking strong hands. At this point, I'm up multiple buyins on him but he's definitely not tilting.
Party Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
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Hero (BB): $1223.25
BTN/SB: $1124.50
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with 5
4
BTN/SB raises to $12, Hero calls $8
Flop: ($24.00) 4
Q
8
(2 players)
Hero bets $20.00, BTN/SB calls $20
Turn: ($64.00) 5
(2 players)
Hero bets $48.00, BTN/SB calls $48
River: ($160.00) 3
(2 players)
Hero bets $118.00,
BTN/SB raises to $376,
Hero raises to $1143.25
His BTN VPIP is 68% so he's not showing up with 83 very often. 43 and A2 fold the turn almost every time. He's pretty straightforward so sets, 67, whatever other strong hands all raise flop or turn almost every time because he wants to get stacks in (he has never slowplayed anything up to this point but had plenty of opportunities to do so). He's capable of bluffraising rivers, but he has already done it ~500 hands ago and might not be willing to do it again. I haven't bluffraised a turn or a river myself vs him in about 800 hands of play.
It's ~$650 more to for him to call (a BI and a half!) and I snapshoved. This thread can be summed up in two questions:
1) Should he fold Q3?
2) Will he fold Q3 60% of the time or more? (the bluff needs to work 52% of the time, but his range isn't exactly only Q3)
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