I think your line is fine until the river. Once he calls the turn you just have to give up IMO. A lot of guys will be calling the A here for the chop and you just cant expect to fold that hand out.

I'm surprised you guys think villain is calling with AX without hesitation.. hero really doesn't have all that many AX's I would think..

I don't really like it though.. in general, I don't like to 2.5x jam rivers when I know villain has a pretty sizable portion of his range (flushes/6X) snapping it. It's possible that it's still bad even if he does fold out all AX.. although likely not given your history of CRing/following up a decent amount...

I disagree.

Id shove my entire betting rage on this river. That said, i think i rarely bluff it off here.

What marginal hands does he have on the turn? any over pair would have probably shipped the flop right? So you were hoping he had a 4 x hand or maybe a 5 and 6-Q. I'm not sure he is folding an A verses a Scandanavian river shove.

This is an interesting hand.

If villain calls with Ax then he is folding waay too rarely for this line not to be crazy ++Ev for value.

I think its far more interesting whether villain will fold 6x? This line seem very plausible for 67 or flush.

Did villain timebank river call at all?

of course he is folding Ax to such an overbet.

Right sorry I misread your response at first..

I don't like the river line. Shoving basically has too bad cost-efficiency. We're also not repping much, and if he hand reads he knows we mostly rep the few combinations of flushes we have.

If anything, we rep a bluff the best, because overbetting a 6 on the river is not that great (we want to get paid by Ax a great % of times with a 6, rather than get more value with a 2.3x pot bet only a small portion of times), and bad with an A too. Heck, we don't even rep a flush that well because we might be expected to check/jam it quite often, though depending on the player and what he thinks of us he might actually check back an A too often so we still rep it somewhat.

Anyway, if our range for value jamming the river is reduced to a flush, then it's obviously just a numbers game on how likely he will try to bluffcatch, but I would say that in general, with the information given, I'd say the cost-reward is not good.

i don't play this high anymore, but is T4s a normal hand to play oop against any kind of competent opponent for most 2k nl regs?

btw i think the river overbet is pretty interesting, and would have no idea what to make of it with Ax as villain.

Yes, need to be defending a lot to not be exploited pre.

Shoving river is such an expensive bluff. Just overbet like $1400 or so, should achieve the same without burning money when he has an unfoldable hand

I would definitely fold. You really don't have anything here and it is very unlikely that the villain would bluff on such a risk board.

Reread the hand...

Villain has called me down a couple of times light but I have given up on the river most (if not every, it is early on) times. What I make of this is that villain has more marginal hands than most on the river and I my range should be more wighted towards value hands as I have shown that I tend to give up on river.

My thoughts exactly.

To everyone posting in this thread:
I am sorry for the very late reply but I meant to post the hand reverse in another forum but it showed to be too complicated for my technical abilities I will post replies here if I ever get it done.

Villain instacalled with Q3ss

He is never folding Ax/6x to a small overbet. He might be folding those to a shove. If he's turn calling range is straights/turned 2pairs/flush draws (AsXs, 2sXs, 3sXs) then flushes are ~10% of his river range.

Meaning that if he only calls flushes your shove is good, if he calls some straights it's obv ridiculously bad.

My guess is that if you have to go and ask around if he's gonna folds straights on the river to a massive overbet, you have no idea how he's gonna react to your overbet, therefor you shouldn't shove.

PS: I used equilab to look up his range distribution on the river, if I made a mistake please point it out, thanks.