Villain has called me down a couple of times with marginal hands when I c/r and follow up on the turn. I have given up on river most times when I don't hit.
1st instinct is to bet fold 670 but realise it opens a door for villian to turn his hand into a bluff and shove over your bet. Might bet, might check, def not shoving
Your line makes little sense, what hands are you c/r'ing the flop with that are going to bet/shove river?
67 and some xxss hands, many of them being with a pair or GS on the flop -
To be more specific: A3, A2, A4, 46, 67, 68, 69, K6, Q6 and maybe some randoms like 78 or J9 ss.
Flushes are a significant part of my range here as well as some 67's. The question is if villain folds a 6 here and how often he shows up with the flush himself? - he has to be good 41 % of the time and I need him to fold 71 %
67 and some xxss hands, many of them being with a pair or GS on the flop -
To be more specific: A3, A2, A4, 46, 67, 68, 69, K6, Q6 and maybe some randoms like 78 or J9 ss.
I was aware that a pair+gutter would be a ton of your range, but you say your villain is calling you down light, so with this villain and the action taken on this board it just seems to me like hes gona get the cape out alot here.
Great odds and villain has very exploitable postflop play.
which makes your river decision all the more questionable. isolate yourself from your decision, go back to barebones logic, and consider what purrretrog says:
Quote:
Originally Posted by purrretrog
I was aware that a pair+gutter would be a ton of your range, but you say your villain is calling you down light, so with this villain and the action taken on this board it just seems to me like hes gona get the cape out alot here.
if villain has shown tendency to hero then you can accomplish a similar action with a ~980-1000+ish bet on the end, which effectively polarizes and merges your three-barrel ranges in some ways better than a shove for later hands. again, i see WHY you shoved but against this particular opponent, if you really do think he has exploitable postflop play that is centered around, as you described in op, "calling you down with marginal hands," then if he's made up his mind to call you with 8s or something equally hero-esque then hes going to do it anyway. the shove is good against some opponents but this is one of those cases where you can need to adjust your line to be more specific. your read on your opponent is yours, we're assuming it's right, so you should do the same.
i think it all comes down to if we were villian and we have an ace or a 6 how often are we calling down different bet sizes. I know the answer is we folding to a shove 100% but then again villian is a fish and depends alot on game flow, has he lost a large pot and is looser now? or did he just double up and is looser now? or is he very tight after winning a medium pot etc etc. i base my decision on the gameflow more
river bluff won't fold out enough better hands because he will not fold Ax (even though it's just a bluffcatcher). Overbetting to make him fold Ax is silly is well as he has too many (nut)flushes in his range. And overbetting without a blocker or a chop hand is too loose in any case.