Read: Villain is solid but not tricky. I'm semi-surprised I got a turn bet out of him. He hasn't overbet.

He views me as probably overaggro but I've really only shown down monsters and lots of them.

$10/$20 No Limit Holdem
2 players
Converted at weaktight.com

EDIT: I am BTN, I have JcTd

Stacks:
BTN (Hero) col (I COVER!!)
SB ([or="#0000cc"]$4351.00[/color])

Pre-flop: ($30, 2 players)
SB raises to $60, BTN calls $40

Flop: 7 Q 9 ($120, 2 players)
BTN checks, SB bets $80, BTN calls $80

Turn: K ($280, 2 players)
BTN checks, SB bets $240, BTN raises to $785, SB calls $545

River: Q ($1,850, 2 players)
BTN checks, SB bets $3,426, BTN folds

Final Pot: $1,850

SB wins $5,275 ( won +$924 )
BTN lost -$925

EDIT2:

So some things to consider is that my range almost never includes boats. QK is about as likely as 77, which isn't very likely. My hand is face up and I feel he knows I almost never have a boat. The boats I do have will still have a tough time calling an overbet. So should I be bet/folding river instead? I was ready to c/c 1200ish and think about anything more than that. To be truthful I instamucked after he shoved river.

What does he expect you to c/r on the flop?

This deep I've been CRing decent TPs (not every time but he's seen a few)... some draws, I will CR sets a lot but not always (he doesn't know that part though).

Just to be clear I think he'd expect me to be raising JT most of the time.

Yes it is, converter is forked. I am what they are calling BTN although you're totally right about BTN/SB obv

I just can't see villain having anything but a boat here. I mean is he really turning like AQ/AK into a bluff? Seems pretty unlikely and it'd be insane to shove AQ here for value obviously.

I think c/c is the best play on the river but I'm folding to this shove

EDIT: But thinking about it more you should be folding like 100% of your range to a shove.. so it probably isn't that insane for him to be bluffing here.. idk

haha wow

If you think your hand is pretty face up on the turn, he knows he's behind and as to call $545 into a $1285 pot. So he roughly needs 30% equity.

I think because you are deep and he is in position he would call with all his sets, a lot of his FD (Ahigh, Jhigh for sure) - he could be fearing you having on a better combo draw.

He has a tone of Axs and a few Jx suited.

How often would he check behind with A high + BDFD? with A7dd? J9dd? 78dd? 79dd? 89dd?
I think it comes down to that.

PS: I've just started HU and I'm a fish playing NL50

Overbet should polarize his range, but given your line your hand looks weak. Admittingly, it's hard for him to float your CR with air.

I wouldn't expect him to jambo AK, but if I'm in his shoes I'm thinking you could have something like KT and would probably feel comfortable jamming some trip hands. Just a leveling thing - he knows that you know you are weak and might look him up.



I counted 21 combos you are behind and 34 total value combos you are ahead of. Some of the combos you are ahead of you can discount b/c he might not bet/call on the turn hands like Q8.

I think you might need to consider game theory as well - this is the very very top of your range.

I think it's close, but given your line, relative hand strength, combos and pot odds I'd call but wouldn't be super happy about it.

I should qualify this if you are playing a game theory, soul crusher hu. Doesn't sound like it and he might have a boat, but I think the better the player the more it would tip it to a call.

Edit:
Given read - solid, not tricky - would lean me to a fold. He prob has the nuts, is not considering ranges and is just leaving it up to you to figure out what you want to call with.

I'd still call anyways! F him.

Isn't a hand like KT going to C/R the flop? I just think it's soooooooooooo thin for him to be shoving trips here and he should be betting a 'standard' amount. And if he's shoving trips why wouldn't you expect him to shove AK? They're both looking to get called by Kx?

jeeeeeeeeeeeeeesus call, id prb bet this river for value anyway why r u cehcking

He views you as over-aggro and you are not value betting the river here. Uhh...

how about 900d blocker bet on the river?

Serious question - how would you play this hand at $1/$2 or $2/$4? I could be wrong but it seems to me the stakes might be affecting your decision, because if you posted this as a 2/4 hand I would be shocked if you didn't bet the river. Seems like one of those spots where you don't want to put half your stack in and then half to make a crying fold when he shoves. But bet/fold (or bet/call with the right dynamic) has to be better than checking

to be honest I just don't understand wtf he can have except KQ/Q9/Q7 because I would assume he would repop the turn with any stronger hand than 2-pairs given how bad a lot of rivers can be for him with a set and you're deep.

I assume he would check behind flop with AJdd, and you have the Td so he doesn't have that many huge combo draws, only J8dd and maybe J9dd if he does cbet it and turn it into a bluff on the turn. These are like the only hands I can see him bluffing with because he prolly isn't floating the turn with pure air. So that's not many hands in his bluffing range and I like the fold.

Bet/folding the river maybe isn't too bad since he might bluffcatch you with a pair of kings assuming you can have some missed draws, but tbh I really think checkfolding is the best play and kudos for being able to make it.

Because he's that big of a nit, he's only calling the turn with like 2pair/sets and maybe diamonds