Impressions and reads:

-villain isnt a typical "reg", but he is thinking and somewhat decent.
-he wasnt what i would consider "aggro"
-he was relatively cally, but not a station necessarily.
-my general gut feeling was that he wasnt the type to run a big bluff, but it was about 100 hands in.
-he didnt c/r much or fight for pots in srp.
-i havent been 3betting much, lets say 10%, hes called 60% of 3b.
-this was a short table (50bb max) and I stacked him 3x to start and he has recently won some back

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
Hero ($2,752)
($3,386)

Dealt to Hero K J

raises to $60, Hero raises to $180, calls $120

FLOP ($360) T J 3

Hero bets $220, raises to $520, Hero calls $300

TURN ($1,400) T J 3 2

Hero checks, bets $780, Hero

I think folding can't be bad, we obviously are bluff catching turn (and possibly safe rivers) as this is never QJ. As for draws, only straight draws in there and we're not even sure if he is aggro enough to raise these. From your information I deduce there has been no 4betting yet, so a decent reg probably has QQ, KK , AA still in his range. Given that the board is so dry, he reps quite some hands (JT,AJ,QQ,KK,AA) and he wasn't overaggro, I think folding here is fine with a bluff catcher OOP on turn 125 bb deep. Also, 2 is the worst card to barrel on.

Please tell me where my assumptions are wrong.

agree, this is somewhat of an annoying but good fold.

This deep the only hand you beat that he could possibly want to play aggressively is QK. Everything else beats you cept for air. He could possible have raised flop with Ax. Axdd, hes prolly check behind on turn.

I don't think you can assume that a decent reg would flat QQ, KK, AA much if ever at all. Hero has 3bet only 10% so villain has had 5 chances to make a 4bet in the match (you can't make a lot of conclusions about his 4betting tendencies). I think I would add some AQ hands to his range though (for flop raise) as it's 140bb deep now.

So the hands that are beating hero would be JT, AJ + some TT and 33 perhaps. His range for bluff raise on the flop probably consists of a lot of straight draws and there are a lot of combos for that: AQ, KQ, Q9, 98, K9.

The turn is such a non scary card that I would guess a villain, as described, would take the free card with sd + overs pretty often. So the turn barrel should make his range a lot stronger.

It would feel kinda ugly to call the turn and fold on a blank river. Check-folding the river unless improved would be the plan if we call the turn, right?

I would say it's a fold.

I saw you playing this guy, there is no way I fold this to him only because I have played him before

What is his PFR? That can change what range he has here quite a bit. Does he have 60% of hands or 36% of hands? I mean it could be either...

Also do you think he would 4 bet 10s in this spot? I think most guys do but if not you can add a few more combos of hands that beat you to my analysis.

The problem about folding here is that basically only JT and 3s make sense. There are only 9 combos of these hands. I guess you could also add in AJ but I discount that somewhat since a lot of guys call that in position. I'll count it as another 6 combos. So realistically there is only 15 hand combos you lose to and this is a 3 bet pot... so the only way I am really willing to fold here is if I think he just doesn't CR bluff/follow through as a bluff almost ever. Even if he only does this with open enders - and never has a gut shot - here is the stove against that range:

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.617% 53.66% 00.96% 65230962 1168960.50 { KcJc }
Hand 1: 45.383% 44.42% 00.96% 54004701 1168960.50 { 33, KQs, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AJo, KQo, Q9o, JTo, 98o }

If you put in only KQo for a semibluff hand:

Board: Jh Td 3c 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.774% 35.77% 00.00% 425 0.00 { KcJc }
Hand 1: 64.226% 64.23% 00.00% 763 0.00 { 33, KQs, JTs, AJo, KQo, JTo }

So yeah I think folding is just out of the question. It is just extremely nitty. Obviously it could be the case that you think a guy is *never* bluffing here and then you should fold. But this guy certainly doesn't sound like that type from your overall description.

Folding here seems ridiculous. People attack this board in 3b pots a lot because it's supposed to hit their perceived range hard.

The question should be to jam or call/call. And I think the fact you can rep AK, AQ, KQ type hands by calling again should make him want to bluff rivers. So call/call here imo

Thanks for the replies so far. I would think he is not 4betting TT. He was opening ~ 70% of buttons thus far.

what do u accomplish by jamming?protection against SDs ??we can deduct OESD he would prob just flat the cbet.Villains bluffing range consists of gutshots but his value range has too many hands that would play this way.At 2k limit there is lot of mental game going on and these boards are perfect for raising and double barreling on a blank with value range.... imo its a fold..

kardnel why u dont put TT,JJ to villains range ?effective stacks are pretty deep and without a 4bet dynamic i dont think villain would 4bet TT,JJ only QQ+

eh im never folding here. Calling down seems fine.

clear jam

I think that against a lot of guys this would be a pretty ridic spot to fold, but we don't have the following reads against a lot of guys:

-he wasnt what i would consider "aggro"
-he was relatively cally, but not a station necessarily.
-my general gut feeling was that he wasnt the type to run a big bluff, but it was about 100 hands in.
-he didnt c/r much or fight for pots in srp.

Villain's not value betting worse nor is he the type to run a big bluff + turn 2 isn't the best card to continue barreling. Still by calling down we're hoping he's trying to run a big bluff.

But yea, he has to be bluffing close to never, maybe it's not that great of an idea to assume that after just 100 hands?

I don't think I could fold vs a competent reg. Jamming gotta be better than calling with stack sizes.

Hrm looking at this more i think a fold is fine also. The thing is that after you call the flop something tells me he isn't going to be semibluffing most hands again while in position. And his sizing just screams value also. I'd still argue that it is probably still +ev to go with the hand (shoving > calling while oop). But who cares about that since we have a person we're pretty sure to have an edge against at nl2k. So I just fold and wait for a better spot... but I don't really feel great about it. I think if I had a huge bank roll on most sites I'd also just go with it but I don't keep too much on any one site nowadays...