NL25 HU ATs River Decision On Double Paired Board

[MartL]

FR Table and have villain as 60/40 over 11 hands. Nothing out of the ordinary so far.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13602742

SB: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A T
SB raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.40) 3 6 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

Turn: ($3) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $1.60, Hero raises to $4.55, SB calls $2.95

River: ($12.10) 6 (2 players)
Hero ??????

Raise on the Turn ok? Or just check/call, check/fold? Whats the play on the river?

[TooCuriousso1]

I dont really like the turn raise much but its kinda whatever. id b/f river, and c/c if u had to chose the check option.

[pbogz1114]

+1

[MartL]

My thoughts on the turn were that I didnt expect him to DB anything worse than A high so i expect im behind at this point. Ive could have plenty of outs for check/call but Im OOP so Im going to struggle to get paid the times I hit because I will either have to lead out or hope he bets. If I hit a flush out then he is going to check behind a lot of the time imo unless he has me beat imo.

In check/raising if I am already in front on the turn then the out come is going to be pretty much the same although by calling I do give him the chance to bluff the river which I pretty much cant call if I miss so Im folding the best hand some of the time. If I check/raise Im thinking that I might fold out some better hands and apart from boats anything he continues with Ive probably not got bad equity against and will have initiative on the river the times I hit.

[TooCuriousso1]

there are a few things i dont think youre approaching correctly

Originally Posted by MartL

My thoughts on the turn were that I didnt expect him to DB anything worse than A high so i expect im behind at this point.

firstly, this shouldn't be your default expectation, ppl absolutely bluff here. second, just because you're behind doesnt mean u have to raise because 1.) u might have direct odds to call 2.) he might not fold anything. What hands do you think hes likely going to bet fold that beat you? semi bluffing roughly involves 1.) the equity of your hand against his range 2.) how much fold equity you have. if one of those isnt very high its probably likely its not a good semi bluff. (keep in mind these are generalizations).

Originally Posted by MartL

If I hit a flush out then he is going to check behind a lot of the time imo unless he has me beat imo.

not sure why this would be true? so hes going to check behind if u hit unless he has better, but call the turn c/r and call a river bet when u hit? seems incongruent.

Originally Posted by MartL

although by calling I do give him the chance to bluff the river which I pretty much cant call if I miss so Im folding the best hand some of the time.

why cant you call with A high? it just depends on his bluffing frequency. if hes bluffing river enough you can call with Ax+

Originally Posted by MartL

If I check/raise Im thinking that I might fold out some better hands and apart from boats anything he continues with Ive probably not got bad equity against and will have initiative on the river the times I hit.

which ones?

[olinolin]

Originally Posted by TooCuriousso1

not sure why this would be true? so hes going to check behind if u hit unless he has better, but call the turn c/r and call a river bet when u hit? seems incongruent.

Wouldn't it be true that if Vil has 9x he would call the river sometimes after calling the turn c/r but often wouldn't bet river if hero had called the turn and then the flush came in? I think that's OPs argument for c/r turn.

[.isolated]

Originally Posted by olinolin

Wouldn't it be true that if Vil has 9x he would call the river sometimes after calling the turn c/r but often wouldn't bet river if hero had called the turn and then the flush came in? I think that's OPs argument for c/r turn.

but if villain has a 9 we're getting direct odds to draw. add that to the fact we can already have the best hand and the turn c/r is really bad.