Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
i think raising an overpair on this flop is pretty borderline. ok its a 4-bet pot but still we are 200+BB deep and we are flipping against a pair+SD
in all honestly i think i just have to fold the flop, when he leads into me in a 4-bet pot he might be bluffing, but i have nothing but a 4-outer which is pretty obvious when i hit it and i have bad equity even against KQ. if i pair on the turn i am not happy at all either.
without a backdoorflushdraw my flop peel is questionable.
when he leads the turn again i put him on Jx at the very least or a bluff. does he have many bluffs in that situation? i dont know, folding seems sour, im not sure if i have the odds to peel again as my implied odds are limited with a 4-straight and some cards completing a flush.
batteling for all pots in bad situations is just not what makes you win.
If it was a good play or not depends a ton on what you do with small PP's preflop.
Do you 3-bet 77, 55 and / or 44 vs this guy ? You 4-bet 98s - do you 4-bet 86s vs him as well ? If no, then you hardly need to worry about putting bluffs in your range, because you have pretty much zero strong value hands on this flop, you simply got a terrible board for your range. If answer is yes to all, you have 9 combos of sets and 4 combos of flopped straights, for which you need bluffs. Villain can't constantly 3-bet and call your 4-bets and then shut down unless he flops the nuts, as that would be a huge money-destroyer. 98s seems an obvious candidate to float this flop, and while 9
8
is admittedly the worst of the 4 possible combos, if you raise all sets and straights on that kind of turn, it should still make sense to make the same play as a bluff with those 98 hands that did not turn a FD (although that would be the most desirable scenario), or 9
8
that didn't even have that possibility.
If you do think you have all 13 combos of sets + straights in your range and raise them all on that innocent-looking turn, what else would be the bluffs you use for balance ? Only those 98s that also turned a FD, and those AKs / AQs that turned a FD ? Then you are way too value-heavy.