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Originally Posted by Nick_AA
(ie: 10bb/100 = .20 cents or 10% of a stack after what 30 minutes of play? and that's a huge winner lol wtf).
It's way worse than that too because you might be paying up to 20bb/100 in rake. Most people have no concept of how sensitive their WR is to any change in their opponent's ability at that rake level.
The best thing you can do is estimate the value of leaks. That's hard to do and takes a lot of time because it involves simming a bunch of real world data in CREV, but it's the gold standard. If you can estimate leak values somewhat accurately, you can estimate whether you have an edge on an opponent or not. So you can set your minimum WR then add a 5bb/100 margin of error and you'll be effectively guaranteed to never lose.
But most players probably aren't going to do that. What's imperative is to recognize in high rake HU games that you absolutely can't ever play someone who is even close to generating optimal frequencies. In HUNL frequencies are coin of the realm, range texture is a distant afterthought.
The simplest possible way to put that concept into action is that if someone seems good to you, there needs to be a very specific, very large leak you're attacking. Otherwise you and your opponent will both be reduced to "good consumers" (suckers leaking cash to the house).
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I think it comes down to....I need to learn to ****ing FOLD FOREVER until it's obvious I shouldn't fold.
That's a huge oversimplification but it's slightly more right than wrong. The sub-conscience seems to do a not-horrible job of handling complex statistical problems. In fact that's what stereotyping is. So another good rule, while lacking a better one, is probably just to follow your instincts.
P.S. like a lot of new players, your thought processes are very noisy. Always try to define the problem with maximum precision.