Quote:
Originally Posted by PureDiesel
Lol, this is ridiculous, man. Is it a level? Fredron stated that I AM a break-even player. The probability/likelyhood of this is like less then 1%, that I'm break-even player with 12bb/100 over 200k hands. The same thing he could state for example. Lol, dude, you are 30bb/100 winner.
And given how bad i run, there's no way i'm break-even player. I discount that 1% chance. Case solved.
PD,
Just been reading the last couple of pages and nobody has said you are a break even player. Due to variance results differ over short periods of time and a player with an overall winrate of 0bb/100 can, over 200k hands win at 15bb/100 or they could lose at 15bb/100 given your SD. It was just an example of how variance can work.
Looking here:
http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/poker_winrate_confidence/ and putting in your SD and winrate over 200k hands you can be 99.99% confident that your true winrate falls between 28bb/100 and -3.4bb/100. So until you put in alot more hands, say over million, you will never know what your TRUE winrate is.
That doesn't mean you are a losing player, it means that 200k hands is a small sample size and you cannot tell what your TRUE winrate is. After 1million hands you will have a better idea what your true winrate would be.
Remember, if your true winrate is 12bb/100 (over say 10 million hands) you can still lose over 30k hands or even 200k hands. Thats why you have bankroll management skills to make sure you don't go bust! Losing over 30k hands with a very aggro style is normal and you will obviously need a big bankroll or the ability to move down stakes to combat it.
Hope this helps make it clearer. If not then good luck figuring it out. Variance is a bitch.