Has there been any extensive math to or theory to estimate the max win percentage at heads up poker sit n gos? My win rate is about 65% through 300 games. I understand this may not be a big enough sample, but what is and what is a good winrate over the long haul?

Thanks

I'm sure if you use search you can come up with a ton of stuff about winrate in this forum.

65% is great in any form of heads up poker, but you need to provide more information for us to give you an idea of how strong it really is. What buyin level are you playing? Are you playing regular speed or turbo?

For example:

If you are playing $10 regular speeds with a 65% winrate, I would say that's kind of standard at that level for a solid player.

If you are playing $110 turbo speeds with a 65% winrate, you are a God.

Theres a whole bunch of stuff re winrates and confidence levels in the FAQ.

I wouldn't call 65% winrate standard for any solid players at any level.

If you check the SS leaderboard, there's like 2 people at the 10 dollar level with 25% ROI (about 65% winrate) or higher (on Pokerstars). These are almost certainly regular speed players too, so yea 65% over 500+ games is going to be quite a run at any level, the higher you play the more impressive.

You should be more concerned with your profit per hour than with your actual winrate. You could probably sustain a 70% winrate if you carefully game selected the absolute worst players and never raced, but that wouldn't serve much of a purpose.

Assuming you play somewhere in the mid stakes and are playing a wide array of opponents anything 58%+ is pretty nice. A "good" winrate is really relative to what your goals are though.

I am very very certain that a very good player can be at 10-12% ROI at the 115s long run (like I am). I am very very certain that a super-special master of poker can be at 15-17% at this limit. I think the numbers may drop a couple of points at the 220s and a couple more at the 550s.

Indy

by solid players i meant people that are too good to be playing 10 dollar regulars, not the best 10 dollar players on the hu leaderboard (worded it completely wrong obv and i was assuming he's probably too good for whatever level he is playing with that winrate). it would not be an accomplishment for someone that has a 10%+ roi at the 33 turbos to have a 25% roi in 10 dollar regulars.

That is implying you can attain an infinite edge, which is not true. This is like the B$M posters claiming that because live is easier, a 4ptbb/100 player can beat the same stakes live for 15ptbb/100.

ok ok ok

basis of my point - saying you have a 65% winrate with no other details means virtually nothing

i need to be more concise

I have done a lot of research on this topic based on my own sample on about 6000 HU sngs, and I have studied a lot of player statistics at sharkscope. My final conclution is that you cant describe win rates with math because its too much variance, no matter how many games you play.

A sample less than 500 games is a compleate joke, but after about 1000-2000 games I believe pure card variance is gone. I mean, after more than 1000 games, you cant say that you have have a bad run because of bad cards or coolers, because after 1000-2000 games you have got 99% of the same cards and experienced pretty much the same types of situations as other players.

But card variance is just one of the many factors that contribute to win rate. The poker site change, the players in the pool change, YOU change.

Lets expemplify Dariominieri. He is now up more than 500K at HU sngs after 11000. 3 months ago he was down 50K in HU sngs with a 8000 games sample. And interestingly he was up about 300K 1-2 years ago. You cant explane Darios statistics with math in terms of expected value, and the same goes for many other players.

Dario is sponsored by pokerstars now, which gives him money, security, and confidence. His opponents might me jealous, and even if they beat him in a game, they know before the next game that Dario is the man, and this is reinforced by his good statistics now.

We cant contoll all the factors that contribute to our win rate. Strong and solid play increase the probability for profit, but no profit is guaranteed, no one can sit down and "order" a 60% win rate the next 1000-2000, or say 10 000 games.

Where can I find this? thanks in advance.

Sharkscope.com, click leaderboards on the left menu.

Assuming you play somewhere in the mid stakes and are playing a wide array of opponents anything 58%+ is pretty nice. A "good" winrate is really relative to what your goals are though.

This is me exactly at the 33s. Haven't yet gotten that 58% down at the 55s.

Dario is a hyper lag, and was a losing husng player during some if not all of the beginning part of his PS sponsorship.

He's had an incredible heater lately, including MTTs and husngs.

While people who should know have said he's improved some, there's no doubt he's been on a heater and been the beneficiary of some tilted players or players with deep pockets that don't really know husngs trying to come in and take his money.

Also he was never that big of a loser for two reasons.

1) He has 100% rakeback I believe with his sponsorship deal. That, combined with the volume of his games should make him AT LEAST breakeven in husng (sharkscope doesn't factor in rakeback).

2) I believe he's made a good amount of money in STTs or some other form of SNGS. So even if he was down 100k in husngs, he might have been up 200k in STTs.

The swings in Dariominieri's graph aren't even close to standard for a typical player. It may have to do with his style or the stakes he is playing, but there is no reason why a ~$55 player should be expecting that much variance - even over a 500 game sample.

His edge changes dramatically in short periods of time.

The playerbase in the stakes he plays is very thin as well. An edge on one player can be longer lived, therefore huge upswing. Lack of an edge against another player can be longer lived, therefore bigger downswing.

Also he's changed the stakes he's played at various times in the last 6 months or whatever.

I remember him 2 tabling against BCM in some 550s not too long ago. Now he's playing 5500s, 1100s, whatever. He changes stakes a lot.