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Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot

09-25-2014 , 10:15 PM
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $240.08 (120 bb)
Hero (BB): $612.42 (306.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q A
SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12

Flop: ($36) K 6 2 (2 players)
Hero...

Obviously depends on villains tendencies, but what are the factors I should be considering in general when deciding whether to bet or check here? Usually my thought process is something like... "betting for value is too thin and he's never folding worse, but I risk being bluffed if I check so maybe I'll just bet for protection, or I could check and call at least one street as a bluff catcher"

How would having the Ah change things? More towards betting or checking?
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 03:32 PM
Check, and I don't think its close.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 08:42 PM
i dont think you need a checking range on this board in a vacuum.

i would go halfpot almost always.

you know checking could be done with a weak king to induce barrels, but most villians are attacking checks to often to profitably c/c against unknowns with such a weak holding you have.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 08:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
i dont think you need a checking range on this board in a vacuum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
most villians are attacking checks to often to profitably c/c against unknowns with such a weak holding you have.
These statements are entirely contradictory.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
These statements are entirely contradictory.
no, attacked can mean a range valuetowning/ bluffing us on flop/turn and river.

its just not profitable c/c around with ace-high on several streets.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 08:51 PM
You missed the point, so I'll go through this step by step.

First question: Roughly how often would you say "most villains" are betting this flop when checked to? (I don't need a precise number -- just an estimate.)
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 08:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
You missed the point, so I'll go through this step by step.

First question: Roughly how often would you say "most villains" are betting this flop when checked to? (I don't need a precise number -- just an estimate.)
ok.

more than 50% less than 80%
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 09:13 PM
Against stabbing frequencies that high, I'd expect good hands to do at least as well with check-call (and/or check-raise) lines as with c-bet lines.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 09:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
Against stabbing frequencies that high, I'd expect good hands to do at least as well with check-call (and/or check-raise) lines as with c-bet lines.
but we dont have a good hand.

edit: and c/r doesnt accomplish much. we fold out the hands we beat, but i doubt it will get much credit.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 09:32 PM
It's not clear how you got the idea that I was talking about AQ, but by good hands I had Kx+ and strong draws in mind.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 09:36 PM
but generally the preflopagressor wants to bet a dry board.

thats at least what most players do.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
but generally the preflopagressor wants to bet a dry board.
Generally the preflop aggressor wants to use the strategy that maximizes his EV. Whatever it is.

If it entails betting a dry board with a high frequency, he should do that. If it entails betting a dry board with a low frequency, he should do that. If it entails betting a dry board with a middling frequency, he should do that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
thats at least what most players do.
Most players don't beat the rake.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 09:42 PM
from a gto perspective the caller is drawing or bluffcatching most of the time. as bluffcatching usually doesnt start pre we stick to drawing.

a dry board doesnt complete anything, therfor the preflopaggressor has the same advantage he had befor, with one less street to come.

HU pairs are so rare, so the caller usually didnt pair and a bet should be standard against his range? ok we cant c-bet 100%, but i doubt a caller can do anything against a high-cbet on this kind of board.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 09:51 PM
Why are you bringing the "GTO perspective" into this?

You think most villains are stabbing on this board well upwards of 50% . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
HU pairs are so rare, so the caller usually didnt pair and a bet should be standard against his range?
God forbid that it's possible to call or raise a bet in unlimited hold them without a pair.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
ok we cant c-bet 100%, but i doubt a caller can do anything against a high-cbet on this kind of board.
But does c-betting very frequently maximize your EV (or even come close to doing so)?
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 10:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
Why are you bringing the "GTO perspective" into this?

You think most villains are stabbing on this board well upwards of 50% . . .



God forbid that it's possible to call or raise a bet in unlimited hold them without a pair.



But does c-betting very frequently maximize your EV (or even come close to doing so)?
im not comfortably c/c this otf against unknown, because most turns are a c/f. therfor my option is to bet or c/f

i think a c-bet gets called by minor ace-highs, and it doesnt define my hand as much as a check.

ace-high is always a difficult hand.

if i had history and i checked all kinds of stuff to this villian and he know it doesnt need to be ace-high im more ok with checking. but i think without history im turning my hand face up.

and: a raise on this board is so uncredible, i dont believe villian will do this often.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 10:07 PM
edit: i have trouble believing that checking a range that beats villians in holdem as a standard is more profitable than betting.

it basically cant be right because villian could counter that by checking back 100%
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-26-2014 , 11:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
edit: i have trouble believing that checking a range that beats villians in holdem as a standard is more profitable than betting.
It can be correct to check a lot of [Kx+, strong draws] when your opponents are stabbing too frequently. Which is what you said you expect them to do.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LongTimeNoSee
it basically cant be right because villian could counter that by checking back 100%
Your entire argument rests on people playing ****ty exploitative strategies -- yet somehow, in their defense, you keep falling back on spurious "GTO-based" ideas. lol, counter by checking back 100%. You can't be serious.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 12:11 AM
is rei even serious responding to this guy?
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 04:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
It can be correct to check a lot of [Kx+, strong draws] when your opponents are stabbing too frequently. Which is what you said you expect them to do.



Your entire argument rests on people playing ****ty exploitative strategies -- yet somehow, in their defense, you keep falling back on spurious "GTO-based" ideas. lol, counter by checking back 100%. You can't be serious.
i am just saying i dont want to check AQ here and of course you can check a good hand once or twice on this board, but i dont think its that good for your range. people stabbing too often will stop once they see you check your good hands as well. but at the beginning of the match that didnt happen yet.

the counter for checking dry boards with your good hands is checking back 100% and go from the turn.

as the caller we are in the defensive, pre we get 2:1 and if the whole hands get checked down we realize our 33% equity we got from the odds, that cant be too bad.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 05:38 AM
what i wanna say is that i think checking as the preflopaggressor as a standard cant be good.

its ok to exploit exorbitant stabbingfrequencies.

but i dont think its a strategy that can be used against a thinking player.

checking back is just the easiest way to counter it. i would be happy to play a guy who isnt giving me 3 but 4 cards for the call of a 3-bet if i choose so.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 06:46 AM
edit: i thought a bit about it and if the game directly gos to the turn 3-bet pots get another nature.

im not so sure how to play the turns in this enviroment, especially draws will be kinda difficult.

still i think its a bad strat, but i have to put in more thought in this befor i can give u a definit answer.

thx for the idea though!

third post in a row, hope i dont spam the forum full lol.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 09:30 AM
Yes, I just realized that it's a bad strategy and the PFR should c-bet close to 100%.

Checking too often allows the caller to realize 133% of their equity (4 cards / 3 cards), and with roughly 2:1 pot odds, they can call the 3-bet with any two cards profitably, even 72o (!) -- which has to be bad for us.

Thank you for helping me spot the error of my ways.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 10:11 AM
cbet vs. unknown and no dynamics.

Always take the line of the aggressor until proven you should adjust or until you have proof that they think above one level.

C/C vs. a player that is overly aggressive on flop but passive on turn/river when pot gets large.

C/F vs. a tight/passive that is happy to check down 99 here but not folding to flop/turn bets.

etc...its called poker and you should adjust your frequencies vs. different opponents.

To answer your last question: Any heart in my hand leads me to betting at a higher frequency in all situations vs. most opponents.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 11:47 AM
#Needbrain
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote
09-27-2014 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samooth
#Needbrain
Well played and original. These forums are brighter with your contributions.
Common flop bet or check decision OOP in 3bet pot Quote

      
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