PokerStars - $0.50 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

133 hands
V call 43 i bb
x/r turn 17% (1/6)

I think V is x/r a 55 on the flop and I have a note that i 3b AJo.
call or not?


BB: $62.79
Hero (SB): $127.05

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has Q K

Hero raises to $1.00, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.00, 2 players) T K 5
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.00, 2 players) Q
BB checks, Hero bets $3.58, BB raises to $13.50, Hero calls $9.92

River: ($32.00, 2 players) 6
BB bets $26.00

click call who cares

why even answer with that call.

yeah i couldnt ever fold really unless i had a true boss read.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/58...-lead-1476576/

top two what you gonna do

/thread

River changes nothing, if you called on the turn you should call the river.

Basically 16 combos of AJ and 16 combos of 9J only sets that make sense would be 55 so u have 3 combos there in his range cuz based on action it looks like he his str8 got there. As said above u got top 2, since pot wasnt 3b im guessing if he has it 9J is the most likely what he holds if he wins but Im with everyone above folding here unless u have ultra solid reads would be criminal.

Why not ship turn?

^^Let him keep spazzing and firing with missed ***** and keep VB thin with weaker hand maybe?

call, jamming anything is awful

Don't know how it could be anywhere near awful. The population is overcalling jams ott especially this one. There are 22 cards coming otr that we dislike in varying degrees, even T's arent wonderful, where we won't be playing particularly well. We don't have a great idea about whats going to happen on many rivers but we have a pretty good idea of what's happening now (villain is severely overcalling).

^^And so what that he is severy overcalling? He just simply doesn't have AK that goes for check-call check-raise OTT and planning to call off for example.
Think of how many worse hands he check-raises OTT and calls off your turn jam, and you'll realise - almost none except few worse two pairs. He is polarised to str8/set and bluffs/draws. By jamming you are getting value only from few combos, and losing to set+, and not letting him to spazz the river, and he would probably keep barreling worse hand on many rivers anyway.
If he would've cold-called such hands OOP as T5, Q5 i would understand a shove, but his flat OOP is only 43%.

I have him calling some random JT,QJ hands, Ass,Jss,KT,K5. I have him bluffing roughly optimally on bricks. I also have him never bluffing on 9s, Js and As. If he is in fact calling the large turn shove shoving should be better given those assumptions. If he is folding whatever hands like AT,JT or QJ as well as Ass that he is check raising and he is over bluffing brick runouts, non straight spade runouts included, then looks like calling would likely be better.

That's even assuming a low bluff ratio. You have to start getting into some pretty wacky scenarios before shoving becomes frankly bad.

The so what about the severe overcalling is that there are probably 22 "danger" cards against which we will not be playing very well not counting As,Js and 9s but counting T's. When we shove we get to play very well, and villain makes some mistakes, perhaps quite a few given the strong draws he shouldn't call with at this size. And we take away that strategic option from him
.
When we call we let him have his strategic option that he can effectively use against us because we will be guessing in so many spots.

Back to ABC poker: I would take another thing into consideration more closely. Knowing OP, he opens close to 100% of hands OTB. Villain cold-called approximately 28 times OOP. He's got to the turn only 6 times.
Either OP was cbetting relentlessly and villain was folding and now he's calling flop to trap with valuehand/draws, either villain was also donking few times and OP folded to them. His turn range is somewhat strong consisting of value and semi-bluffs. Given all that, I highly doubt he has JT, QJ, Jxss type hands in his turn check-raising range.
Anyway, after the turn check-raise villain will barrel river with draws in both scenarios, when he hits and when not some of the time. We will get value from those. He will keep barreling value hands on safe rivers we get value again and save from better hands.
If the river will be a scare card, he will slow down thinking that you are the one who was drawing most of the time, so you shoudn't worry about 22 "danger" cards - you should worry about MAXIMIZING YOUR EV AGAINST HIM OVERALL.

Its not clear what op was even saying. He was first counting instances then maybe not then clearly expressing frequencies. But if villain is in fact only defending 43% from the bb that would make hands like JTo, QJo and ATo more likely ott, not less. If he got to the flop 28 times we would expect him to get to the turn right around 6 if both he and op were perfectly average players.


He shouldn't be declining to bluff scare cards. We should worry about the 22 danger cards here and in every spot like it because they cause our hand to sharply lose equity and force us into a guessing game. I would also argue that the strategic variance is higher for river play than for the turn in this case. The NL50 population's calling tendencies are quite uniform as a whole vs a turn shove. For example few players will fold any of their value range. However on a card like the 5h, individual player strategies will vary immensely, even if we have a good idea of what the population as a whole is doing. That means we have less information with one line vs the other. By shoving we also deny villain a strategic option that he will use to monetize that information deficit.



We agree on that.

So ****ing stupid.

I don't know why I found this so funny but this had me cracking up

with reasonable assumptions of our cbet flop-call turn x/r range here, it's really hard to see KQ being in bottom 45% of our range otr unless we are folding the turn with a lot of stuff that i highly doubt we are.


so ya we def call unless tons of reason to believe that the guy just basically isn't bluffing here

I agree with this.
if we make this fold, its gotta be to exploit villains tendency to not bluff often enough and I want to know that villain wont merge or vbet super thin/turn SDV into bluffs.

basically, I don't love it but I call

Flat river, Villain's sizing is nice (we'll see more 2-pair combos than J9s/AJ) and hard to get called by worse when we raise river. Villain's turn raise sucks though

Edit: Also Villain can raise turn barrel river w/ FDs & combos

If villian is not totaly brain dead i would strongly consider folding turn. Yea, top two and **** but even a monkey would realize that this texture strongly favours our range so he should not have x/r range wich makes me think that usually these type of bad/lolregs will underbluff here. Also his turn sizing screms 'value', river bet confims it since some of you already said 'when you call turn you cant fold river'.

Exploitable turn fold? Yes. Would i feel being exploited vs most? No.