flop 10 4 2 you play against a nit who calls open something like 20% what is your play here with a weak 2x

had a discussion with a friend about this, he says its better to check flop and evaluate turn OR barrel on all cards 9+ exept an ace which is pretty much alot in his range.

i think its pretty bad to checkback flop as a default as you give him free equity with overcards to draw against you and like every turn is bad for you and there might be worse hands that call you like fd/a highs

he says checkback is better because almost nothing worse calls him

woud like some thoughts on this kind off standard situations

How he plays post flop is pretty important. If we have enough data to say 20% call open is reliable, we should know a c/r perentage, fold to cbet percentage, whether he plays fit or fold on flops, his turn leads percentage after missed cbet. These are all crucial stats/reads to consider in this decision. Eg, against some you can say with certainty that they will lead a high percentage of turns and bet rivers, putting us in a tough spot, thus making a cbet more appealing. Against someone who will know will c/c ace high, a cbet becomes a bit more valuable also. etc.

As a standard against someone very tight pre, it makes sense to cbet less, so that includes narrowing your value cbet range. Taking out some bottom pair hands might be okay for sure. Like I don't think I'd check back 2x here vs alot of regs early, but if I know the guy is calling mega tight out the big blind, that's a situation where I start to consider making 2x a standard check back.

edit: Well, I'm being a bit over the top saying we should know all these stats/reads if we know the 20% call open stat. That's not really true, because obviously the sample size for the other stuff will be quite a big smaller, but you get my point about post flop reads/stats being very important in this decision.

should have been a bit more specific against a what type off player i mean. a passive nit whos range is something like random overcards a highs flushdraws and very passive on later streets.
thahis for ur input khal.

I recently posted a thread about the difficulty of playing bottom pair and no one really seemed to understand what i meant. Maybe i didn't explain myself well. Although i focused mostly on playing bottom pair OOP, your hand illustrates the same problem.

I was inclined to call betting bottom pair a semi bluff and didn't get much support for the idea but, completely by coincidence, I just got about 50 pages deep in "Hold'em for Advanced Players" by Sklansky and M. In that book they put the play of bottom pair in the semi bluff section. Essentially your bet would be a semi bluff. If you are called you'll expect opponent to have a better hand or at least you'll be very hard pressed to put any more money in the pot against him unless you improve.

In position i think the problem is somewhat simpler though. Despite the dynamic Khal Drago brings up (which was a good point i think), I still feel like you should bet this flop in position. You're going to Cbet air some of the time right? Why not cbet pretty much all of the time with an actual hand? Even if you won't be Cbetting air much against a specific player it just seems to make more sense to bet all pairs and reduce the air you bet (even if you have to drop cbetting air out completely against some players). Keep in mind that balancing your range against the type of player you won't be able to cbet air against is not necessary.

The other reasons to bet are obviously for denying random high cards and even flush draws a free card, and the "semi bluff" dynamic; that you could still improve to two pair or trips if you are beat now. Also, depending on the X in 2/X you may bet, be floated by a high card flush draw and make two pair when he misses the FD but hits a card. For instance, if you have K2 here and bet your opponent could call with KQs (FD and overs), if the K peels he'll be in bad shape.

Against your opponent who is nitty and passive you can bet your 2 with relative inpunity and probably x it down if you don't improve.

In my opinion this is a pretty clear cbet; I would pot bet/fold flop. If you bet and are called though I think you x it back on the turn and river if allowed and you fold if he x/c's flop and bets the turn. For me the only tricky spots would be if you bet and are called then make trips or two pair with a three flush out (in whatever sequence). Or, if you bet and are called OTF, check back the turn, and he leads the river with no paint on the board, in both cases i would just compare the pot odds to how likely i feel i am to have the best hand.. basically call small bet fold to large bet.

The reason I like to bet all flops against a nit is so they open up a little. It also disguises your hand when u have the nuts.

What your friend has wrong is that the logic of 'why bet if he always calls with better and always folds worse?' is good on the river but not on the flop. There are other reasons to bet the flop than just a decision between v-betting and bluffing: mainly protecting your hand, charging for draws and balancing your range.

The most likely scenario is that he missed and will c-fold, because he is a nit. This is a good result for us: whatever his hand was it had good equity against ours, and there are very little turns we like. Whatever your friend says, getting a little value with bottom pair and moving on is +EV.

Not polarizing your c-bet range is very good if your opponent is half-observant.

Finally, nits won't c-raise flop with air very often.

+1

I totally agree with this and i feel like more and more this is being debated. There are some very good players who will use the argument of "can he call with worse/fold better" when deciding whether to raise or not even preflop.
I think its ill concieved and nonsensical but people really stick to their guns on this idea some times.

Think of preflop "range manipulation". Same thing.
"Don't 3 bet JJ from the BB vs a button raise because your opponent will have more hands to call you with when you bet/raise for value on A97r and on A97Q. if you just call preflop". As if the act of raising or flatting will LITERALLY change the two cards in opponents hand.

The only time the "call with worse or fold better" concept is strictly correct is when all the cards are out. That "don't 3 bet JJ from BB vs bttn raise" scenario is an actual quote from a video that was supported by good, thinking, players. I think alot of people are taking the river bet concept WAY too far these days.