Originally Posted by ReDLiNeMaKeDiKHaRd
This is starting a 6m table. Never played this guy before like ~30 hands into the match and he's clearly a reg although he's folded to the last few 3bets this is first 3b he's continued against.
Merge - $6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hero (BB): $747.00
posts SB $3.00, Hero
posts BB $6.00
Pre Flop: (pot: $9.00) Hero
SB raises to $12.00
, Hero raises to $48.00
Flop: ($96.00, 2 players)
Hero bets $56.00
Turn: ($208.00, 2 players)
Hero bets $135.00
River: ($478.00, 2 players)
ch/c ch/f or shove myself?
Combos that beat us (13 combos) (edited to 11 combos after revaluating QJ)
QJs Q10s (2 combos of Q10s (as Q
likely to raise flop) 3 of QJs) and 6 combos of QQ that beat us so 13 combos.
Combos we beat
3 combos of 1010, 99, 88, 22 (12 combos) (maybe folds 22 pre maybe 4bets 10s?)
J9s (1 combo) J10s (1 combo) 109s (1 combo) A10s (2 combos) K10s (2 combos) ... taken out diamond combos as i think he raises pair/oe and flush draws a lot (7 combos) (K10s is debatable)
98s (2 combos)
(27 combos)(edited to only 20 combos that get to the river)
Out of the combos we beat i think we can obtain value from all sets and most two pairs.
Which is 12 combos of sets and lets say J10 and J9 call the river making a total of 14 combos..
However lets say he 4bets 1 out of his 3 10s combos pre and folds 2 of his 22 combos pre.. we also have to think about how often is he raising a set on the flop which i think is a lot so lets say he raises 1 out of 2 combos of 22 here and raises 2 out of 3 combos of 88 and 2 out of 3 of 99... that gives us now 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 5 combos of sets he has at the river and 2 combos of 2pair giving a total of (7 combos)
The bluffing combos, if he will bluff this river will be the flush draws unless he turns his weaker value range into a bluff on the river e.g K10s and A10s which makes a total of around 10 possible bluffing combos that will bluff when we check on the river but i think it is unlikely he will turn K10s and A10s into a bluff here so more likely (6 combos).
Back to combos that beat us
As i rediscussed the sets on the flop, I think we should also notice that maybe 2 out of his 3 combos of QJ will raise the turn, giving a total of 11 combos.
So to shuv for value we have 7 combos that will call for value, 11 combos that will beat us and 13 combos that will fold.
7/(7+11+13)*$1200 = $271 (Called for value)
13/(7+11+13)*$478 = $200 (Opponent folds)
11/(7+11+13)*1200 = $425 (Called and bad)
EV = +$46
Now to check to check call
I think he will check behind most hands he would have called for value yet we dont always have a Q here so he can bet most sets and two pairs however we can have a Q as the flush draw noticeably missed so i think he checks most if not all value combos, however for arguments sake ill include some value combos as he may think we can still call with AA and KK as a bluff catcher. So lets say when we check he bets J10s 10s 9s (4 combos). Then there is 6 combos of flush draws he may bluff with yet i dont think he will bluff with every combo so lets say he bluffs with A
. Player dependant he may turn K10s A10s into a bluff ill include one combo of K10s (1 combo). So he has 7 combos he will bet and we beat when we check call.
And he has 11 combos that beat us that he bets when we check.
7/(7+11+13)*$1200 = $271 (He shuvs we win)
13/(7+11+13)*$478 = $200 (Checked behind and we win)
11/(7+11+13)*1200 = $425 (He shuvs we lose)
EV = +$46
So in conclusion its a very ****in marginal situation and is very player dependant if he is bluffing more flush draws and turning weak value hands into bluffs you should lean to check call.
Then for shuving again my combos could be wrong that he gets to the river with he may call even lighter than i stated i.e. i did not include AA or KK which he may not have 4betted pre which is kind of wrong since i included QQ so maybe i should go over this again but its 6.30am and ive been doing this for ****in ages lol ... so if he has AA KK AJ KJ here and calls its going to be a lot more +EV to shuv... he could be raising ALL sets otf reducing our value range etc.
If thats true and his value hands are reduced and hes not bluffin on the river a lot then a check fold is fine other than that i think its only down to player type on your river decision.
still imo SHIPPPPPPPPPPPPP ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT