600nl 3b pot top set on 4straight board

[ReDLiNeMaKeDiKHaRd]

This is starting a 6m table. Never played this guy before like ~30 hands into the match and he's clearly a reg although he's folded to the last few 3bets this is first 3b he's continued against.

Merge - $6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players

SB: $600.00
Hero (BB): $747.00

SB posts SB $3.00, Hero posts BB $6.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $9.00) Hero has J J

SB raises to $12.00, Hero raises to $48.00, SB calls $36.00

Flop: ($96.00, 2 players) T 2 8
Hero bets $56.00, SB calls $56.00

Turn: ($208.00, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $135.00, SB calls $135.00

River: ($478.00, 2 players) J
$361 behind

ch/c ch/f or shove myself?

[BreakYaNeck]

early on its probably pretty close between c/c and c/f. I dont see what shoving accomplishes. Im a station so i just click call here if he shoves

[adoyal]

Originally Posted by ReDLiNeMaKeDiKHaRd

This is starting a 6m table. Never played this guy before like ~30 hands into the match and he's clearly a reg although he's folded to the last few 3bets this is first 3b he's continued against.

Merge - $6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players

SB: $600.00
Hero (BB): $747.00

SB posts SB $3.00, Hero posts BB $6.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $9.00) Hero has J J

SB raises to $12.00, Hero raises to $48.00, SB calls $36.00

Flop: ($96.00, 2 players) T 2 8
Hero bets $56.00, SB calls $56.00

Turn: ($208.00, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $135.00, SB calls $135.00

River: ($478.00, 2 players) J
$361 behind

ch/c ch/f or shove myself?

Combos that beat us (13 combos) (edited to 11 combos after revaluating QJ)
KQ AQ QJs Q10s (2 combos of Q10s (as Q10 likely to raise flop) 3 of QJs) and 6 combos of QQ that beat us so 13 combos.

Ok..

Combos we beat
3 combos of 1010, 99, 88, 22 (12 combos) (maybe folds 22 pre maybe 4bets 10s?)
J9s (1 combo) J10s (1 combo) 109s (1 combo) A10s (2 combos) K10s (2 combos) ... taken out diamond combos as i think he raises pair/oe and flush draws a lot (7 combos) (K10s is debatable)
98s (2 combos)
K9, KJ, AJ, AK, A9,56,
(6 combos)

(27 combos)(edited to only 20 combos that get to the river)

Out of the combos we beat i think we can obtain value from all sets and most two pairs.
Which is 12 combos of sets and lets say J10 and J9 call the river making a total of 14 combos..
However lets say he 4bets 1 out of his 3 10s combos pre and folds 2 of his 22 combos pre.. we also have to think about how often is he raising a set on the flop which i think is a lot so lets say he raises 1 out of 2 combos of 22 here and raises 2 out of 3 combos of 88 and 2 out of 3 of 99... that gives us now 2 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 5 combos of sets he has at the river and 2 combos of 2pair giving a total of (7 combos)

The bluffing combos, if he will bluff this river will be the flush draws unless he turns his weaker value range into a bluff on the river e.g K10s and A10s which makes a total of around 10 possible bluffing combos that will bluff when we check on the river but i think it is unlikely he will turn K10s and A10s into a bluff here so more likely (6 combos).

Back to combos that beat us
As i rediscussed the sets on the flop, I think we should also notice that maybe 2 out of his 3 combos of QJ will raise the turn, giving a total of 11 combos.
So to shuv for value we have 7 combos that will call for value, 11 combos that will beat us and 13 combos that will fold.

7/(7+11+13)*$1200 = $271 (Called for value)
13/(7+11+13)*$478 = $200 (Opponent folds)
11/(7+11+13)*1200 = $425 (Called and bad)

EV = +$46

Now to check to check call

I think he will check behind most hands he would have called for value yet we dont always have a Q here so he can bet most sets and two pairs however we can have a Q as the flush draw noticeably missed so i think he checks most if not all value combos, however for arguments sake ill include some value combos as he may think we can still call with AA and KK as a bluff catcher. So lets say when we check he bets J10s 10s 9s (4 combos). Then there is 6 combos of flush draws he may bluff with yet i dont think he will bluff with every combo so lets say he bluffs with AK, 56. Player dependant he may turn K10s A10s into a bluff ill include one combo of K10s (1 combo). So he has 7 combos he will bet and we beat when we check call.
And he has 11 combos that beat us that he bets when we check.

7/(7+11+13)*$1200 = $271 (He shuvs we win)
13/(7+11+13)*$478 = $200 (Checked behind and we win)
11/(7+11+13)*1200 = $425 (He shuvs we lose)

EV = +$46

So in conclusion its a very ****in marginal situation and is very player dependant if he is bluffing more flush draws and turning weak value hands into bluffs you should lean to check call.

Then for shuving again my combos could be wrong that he gets to the river with he may call even lighter than i stated i.e. i did not include AA or KK which he may not have 4betted pre which is kind of wrong since i included QQ so maybe i should go over this again but its 6.30am and ive been doing this for ****in ages lol ... so if he has AA KK AJ KJ here and calls its going to be a lot more +EV to shuv... he could be raising ALL sets otf reducing our value range etc.

If thats true and his value hands are reduced and hes not bluffin on the river a lot then a check fold is fine other than that i think its only down to player type on your river decision.

still imo SHIPPPPPPPPPPPPP ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

[Khal Drogo]

Umm, I'm not actually sure. At first I thought it was a shove, but now I'm thinking that might be a bit thin... I think c/c is a valid option but c/f is not.

[kwedaras]

bet more on the flop, and esp on the turn.

[ReDLiNeMaKeDiKHaRd]

Originally Posted by kwedaras

bet more on the flop, and esp on the turn.

Why?

[Lefort]

It's a nice hand to chk/call turn with.. esp given your turn-chking range is gonna suck balls. As played I chk/fold given the assumption that it's a 6m reg starting a HU table and likely won't be as savvy as to turn everything into bluffs..

[Khal Drogo]

Originally Posted by Lefort

It's a nice hand to chk/call turn with.. esp given your turn-chking range is gonna suck balls. As played I chk/fold given the assumption that it's a 6m reg starting a HU table and likely won't be as savvy as to turn everything into bluffs..

Agree about turn, seems like a great hand to have in c/c range sometimes.

Needing to be right just 30% of the time on the river facing a jam can we really confidently c/f here?
(1) I'm worried any Tx, 9x or 8x is turning itself into a bluff here pretty often and expecting us to fold alot of hands like AA/KK/AJ/KJ/AT/KT (not to mention if he thinks we'll fold 2p/set). Sure 6max reg, but it's not like this is 50NL and he is starting tables so I think we should give him some credit for being a good thinking player.
(2) Wouldn't he be under the assumption that we'd never ever check a straight to him on the river, so he might value bet hands like lower sets and even strong 2pairs (I know these hands might stick more money in on earlier streets, but still worth considering)?

[Lefort]

Yah I mean it's an interesting spot because his range is actually vvv wide while ours is pretty much {bluffcatchers} after we chk with the exception of some potential overlap when we have a hand like this or if we decide to chk a straight.. so we're really opening ourselves up to getting exploited if we're folding our whole chk range and he has so many hands with which he could turn into bluffs..

But IME I just find early in a match against someone who's not a HU reg, they tend to take the more passive lines and try to get to showdown. Obv your argument is that I'm taking that logic too far and that's pretty fair to say.. it just sucks that there's a pretty significant % of the time we're going to be playing against someone who at this point has a jamming range of strictly {straights}.

[pm me for heads up]

disagree with checking turn

like if you're not betting JJ what are you betting? we don't have many 2 pairs on this board and its impossible to flop sets online

[Khal Drogo]

Thanks Lefort. I agree with everything you say. I guess I'm leaning towards c/c > c/f because:

1) I personally give 600NL table starter quite a bit of credit, thus I'd never make the assumption "he won't turn stuff into bluffs".

2) We'd need the best hand 30% of the time otr - great price, and given how many non-straight combos he'll have on the river as opposed to straight combos, we don't need those other combos (weak hands turning into bluffs or worse strong hands vbetting) to jam all that often.

3) I value the information in seeing his hand highly. Like seeing how wide he peels turn, what hands he's defending to 3bets, etc. I guess this isn't too significant as alot of the time we'll get shown QJ/QT and won't pick up anything.

Originally Posted by pm me for heads up

disagree with checking turn

like if you're not betting JJ what are you betting? we don't have many 2 pairs on this board and its impossible to flop sets online

JJ is a better c/c than KK because we are more well protected/fewer bad rivers. And it's important to balance by not just barrelling every strong hand on a turn where we're often giving up with air and our c/c range will generally be perceived to be very weak (pair + straight draw and stuff), thus we'll get bluffed alot and people will value bet twice with weaker hands.

Your post sounds a bit like a joke in general. Are you making joke posts on an account "pm me for heads up" to get more action? What stakes do you play also?

[Lefort]

Yah thinking more about it, I think you're right.. but I also think that ~2 years ago, I'd be right. The nature of starting tables has changed a lot over the years (used to be good 6m regs who would vpip btn 40% and bb 30% HU when starting a MSNL table and they'd do alright because the table would fill quicker, more fish etc..) but nowadays there's a lot more focus on how to play HU given that it happens for longer periods of time because tables fill slower, more of a battle for open 6m tables thus forcing ppl to learn how to play HU better, etc..

[josh87]

Originally Posted by ReDLiNeMaKeDiKHaRd

This is starting a 6m table. Never played this guy before like ~30 hands into the match and he's clearly a reg although he's folded to the last few 3bets this is first 3b he's continued against.

Merge - $6 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 2 players

SB: $600.00
Hero (BB): $747.00

SB posts SB $3.00, Hero posts BB $6.00

Pre Flop: (pot: $9.00) Hero has J J

SB raises to $12.00, Hero raises to $48.00, SB calls $36.00

Flop: ($96.00, 2 players) T 2 8
Hero bets $56.00, SB calls $56.00

Turn: ($208.00, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $135.00, SB calls $135.00

River: ($478.00, 2 players) J
$361 behind

ch/c ch/f or shove myself?

Based on OP/read Im not sure if turn bet is even good. C/C or C/F is better than the rest.

[ReDLiNeMaKeDiKHaRd]

what if I had the nuts on the river? Also ch/c? (not implying anything honestly asking a different question)

fwiw I did ch/c this river and he had A7ss

[.isolated]

you should fold pre or c/f flop. oh hahahha i'm so fkn funny.