50NL HU - SB Top Pair - Did We Overplay This?
06-21-2017
, 08:19 PM
Not a ton of hands with villain - he had VPIP of 89, was on his button, PFR 76, Aggresion 86.
Here is hand:
No Limit Hold'em $0.25/$0.50
2 players
Stacks:
BTN - BTN ($50.00)
BB - Hero ($50.00)
Preflop: ($0.75, 2 players) Hero is BB with Q
7
BTN raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.00
Flop: 4
7 3 ($3.00, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.14, BTN raises to $5.00, Hero calls $2.86
Turn: J ($13.00, 2 players)
Hero bets $9.38, BTN raises to $20.50, Hero ????
So here is my logic and here is the math.
I donk bet here because I think our 7 is pretty solid, and against alot of his range, we are giving him an opportunity to check behind with overcards and realize his equity, so we bet primarily for equity denial. Him raising me probably should have been the first red flag, but I think he's capable of raising alot of AKdd type of hands here - and the math for a call isn't that bad at all actually. We also have a runner runner flush draw option with the Qd as well.
In terms of math - assuming he opens 85% of hands here - and continues (aka raises me) with only OSED, FD, sets, straights, overpairs, and two pair - we have 50% equity vs that range on the flop. We are calling 2.86 into 10.14 pot, getting 3.5:1 so we need about 20% equity to make the call.
On the turn - my gut was kind of telling me he's on a FD / AKdd type of hand. I bet out again mostly for equity denial - and he raises - another red flag and good chance to give up for me - but (and I think this was probably the biggest mistake) I shoved instead - thinking I can maybe get some fold equity, and worst case if he calls I can make him pay max price here to continue with his draw.
On that turn - if his continuance range from the flop was OSED, FD, sets, straights, overpairs, and two pair - we still have 36% equity vs that range. Maybe a check/call would have been better here and I got carried away.
Anyway - how would you play this? Did I just go too deep on the read that he had a flush draw? Was this an obvious fold way earlier in the hand? I think the math works in terms of us having reasonable equity vs what I think is a very reasonable range for him here on flop and turn - but maybe I could have gotten away from this, or not been so aggressive with it, or played it differently.
His raise sizing also felt really weak to me (and furthered my thought that he was on a draw).
How do you play it?
I can see a lot of people saying I overplayed it, and I see that logic (especially OOP) - what do you think of the math here and my thought process?
RESULTS
Here is hand:
No Limit Hold'em $0.25/$0.50
2 players
Stacks:
BTN - BTN ($50.00)
BB - Hero ($50.00)
Preflop: ($0.75, 2 players) Hero is BB with Q
7BTN raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.00
Flop: 4
7 3 ($3.00, 2 players)Hero bets $2.14, BTN raises to $5.00, Hero calls $2.86
Turn: J
($13.00, 2 players)Hero bets $9.38, BTN raises to $20.50, Hero ????
So here is my logic and here is the math.
I donk bet here because I think our 7 is pretty solid, and against alot of his range, we are giving him an opportunity to check behind with overcards and realize his equity, so we bet primarily for equity denial. Him raising me probably should have been the first red flag, but I think he's capable of raising alot of AKdd type of hands here - and the math for a call isn't that bad at all actually. We also have a runner runner flush draw option with the Qd as well.
In terms of math - assuming he opens 85% of hands here - and continues (aka raises me) with only OSED, FD, sets, straights, overpairs, and two pair - we have 50% equity vs that range on the flop. We are calling 2.86 into 10.14 pot, getting 3.5:1 so we need about 20% equity to make the call.
On the turn - my gut was kind of telling me he's on a FD / AKdd type of hand. I bet out again mostly for equity denial - and he raises - another red flag and good chance to give up for me - but (and I think this was probably the biggest mistake) I shoved instead - thinking I can maybe get some fold equity, and worst case if he calls I can make him pay max price here to continue with his draw.
On that turn - if his continuance range from the flop was OSED, FD, sets, straights, overpairs, and two pair - we still have 36% equity vs that range. Maybe a check/call would have been better here and I got carried away.
Anyway - how would you play this? Did I just go too deep on the read that he had a flush draw? Was this an obvious fold way earlier in the hand? I think the math works in terms of us having reasonable equity vs what I think is a very reasonable range for him here on flop and turn - but maybe I could have gotten away from this, or not been so aggressive with it, or played it differently.
His raise sizing also felt really weak to me (and furthered my thought that he was on a draw).
How do you play it?
I can see a lot of people saying I overplayed it, and I see that logic (especially OOP) - what do you think of the math here and my thought process?
RESULTS
Spoiler:
(with Straight to 7)
Last edited by LOLbadbeatz; 06-21-2017 at 08:27 PM.
06-22-2017
, 09:18 AM