Villian is 94/71 tiny sample I have seen him check back hands where he could have turned it into a bluff Villian is a reg but at this point I don't have a ton of info

Question is Do you VB river?

Winning Poker Network - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 161.62 BB
SB: 102 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

SB raises to 2 BB, Hero raises to 6 BB, SB calls 4 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 2 players) T Q 8
Hero bets 7.6 BB, SB calls 7.6 BB

Turn: (27.2 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 18 BB, SB calls 18 BB

River: (63.2 BB, 2 players) J
Hero ??

Unless Im misreading something you've got a one-pair hand on a 4 to a straight board. Why do you want to vbet it?

c/f >> c/c >>>>>>>>> bet

Bet $2.20 to rep 22.

You should do some combo-counting work (click "edit this simulation") if v-betting doesn't immediately strike you as terrible.

ya it's 4 to a straight but it's a gutter ball, Thought it was a lot closer in real time.

Sizing is too small preflop. Flop is fine, check turn, wave white flag otr.

this would be a large mistake

Yeah. Why are we checking turn?

+1. River is a clear c/evaluate.

ye, but it's also HU and not 6max

plyboy_binny's analysis:

Preflop: It's OK, you can 3bet pot if you know why you're doing it - for example if your opponent plays fit or fold on the flop in 3bet pots and you are trying to exploit that by 3betting a lot preflop and cbetting. This works better with small 3bet sizes and small cbet sizes exactly like you're doing. It encourages villain to call pre with a wider range that they'll fold on the flop when they miss. If you're employing a tighter 3betting strategy and villain is good in 3bet pots, its better to 3bet bigger.

Flop: This bet is simply too small. I'm guessing you make the same consistent flop bet size with your entire range on all board textures. This is OK and profitable but there is a better way to bet. I recommend changing your bet size based on board texture. On this board villain has a high calling %. Thus it is better to bet big with made hands for value and big with bluffs to put pressure on their one pair + gutshot hands. With KK you can gain so much value by betting 5/6 pot, 5/6 pot turn, 3/5 pot river. You can balance that by doing the same with KJ, J9, and occasionally air. Conversely, when you're trying to bluff out pair+gutshot with these small bets, its never going to happen. Small bets on wet boards achieve very little. Similarly consider half potting or 1/3 potting on super dry boards like K62r.

Turn: Again, bet big. This is a certain bet, never a check. One, KK is happy to get all in on turn - often times villain will shove Qx or Tx hoping you have KJ. Two, villain will often check back Q+gutter and T+gutter for pot control and try hit their draw. Three, our range hits this board hard and it is difficult to disguise weakness by checking.

River: lets do some analysis.

When we shove river, villain might call with these hands that we beat:

KQ, KJ

villain will likely call with these hands that beat us:

QJ,TJ,T9,89,Q9,8J, all 9's, all slow played 2pair and sets.

A bet is going to lose money when we're called.

Chance of bluffing two pairs out with river bet, hard to say - I'd guess unlikely.

The correct play is to check. After checking, we have to decide if we want to call a bet. Likely hands our opponent bets:

KQ going for super thin value - nearly impossible
2pair going for thin value, possible
9's
sets going for thin value, possible
one pair hands like Tx or 8x turning their hand into a bluff. Either possible but unlikely or impossible (if villain just isn't capable of thinking like that).

Thus when opponent bets, its a pretty clear fold.

Others, please feel free to critique my analysis. plyboy_binny

Anything but c/f here is extremely bad.

Checking turn is by no means a large mistake. It's a matter of how you construct your ranges. But I did think in more detail about the spot, and concluded that I wanted prioritize differently, and thereby bet it instead.

yes it is, cbetting flop to check a blank turn here is so bad and makes no sence

Don't usually post advice but against a 91/74 villian you messed this hand up pre and on the flop and put yourself in a bad spot.

pre - Bet more. i would say make it 8 or 8.5 BB. you are expecting a call. build the pot up. don't bet 6 "hoping to keep him in the hand". by betting 6, his calling range, which is already wide, is basically 100% of his hands.

flop - not a great flop for kk. bet more. again, he will probably call with any piece or any draw. bet big and make him pay. as played, more like 10bb.

turn - great card. bet bigger!

river - horrible card. check and evaluate. i'm calling off most small bets but am folding to any large bets/shoves.

You can't value bet this river because think about it from the villians perspective. if he has AQ, he is almost never calling a value bet. what else are you hoping to get a call with on a value bet? if anything, if you think you have the best hand, this is a prime spot to check/call a bluff. but again, you're probably beat at this point.

need more info on villian. not always bad to check/shove here if villian is aggro and might bet draws or pair w/gutshot type hands. in a vacuum, bet > check

Surely you realize that even though the turn does not change much, we will not be able to valuebet as wide as on the flop, because your previous bet just narrowed the ranges of both players.

irrelevant since our equity against the range which should defend still increases on a 3 turn. turn is a fistpump value bet, no other line makes sence and its laughable to even be debating this

You have no checking range on this turn in general or this hand specifically? It seems like the 3 is fairly neutral and so doesn't favor our range substantially more than villains, which is the criterion, namely substantially favoring our range over his that I have used as justification to always bet in a spot.

bet turn, x/f riv, bigger raise n bet sizes

I feel like its sort of unlikely a reg plays a draw, sets, 2pr, so passively, so at first look im inclined to check and call. I don't think that we can bet for value but think we are ahead a lot.

really though, on further analysis, what hands would he bet that we beat?

I guess we check, expecting to see him check back and we win.
I guess we have to check fold if we haven't seen him turn decent show down value hands into bluffs.

In game id prob have check called
now that ive read the other posts I agree with check fold.

bet sizing seems bad to me.
I think bigger is better with your draws and against villains on boards like this.
3 bet bigger pre
pot flop
pot turn
ch fold riv
seems right to me??

dont pot flop n turn ldo

exactly...thinking about balancing a turn check shoving range in this situation to level a nl50 reg into calling a shove is just trying to overthink a situation for the sake of trying to sound clever, when (especially at nl50) its really just -EV for obvious reasons.

river is probably c/f, unless you have some reason to believe that villain is floating insanely wide and capable of turning made hands into bluffs in which case c/c isn't horrible.