Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Full Tilt
($63.90)
Hero ($103)

Dealt to Hero 99

Hero raises to $1.50, calls $1,

FLOP ($3) 556

check, Hero bets $2, raises to $7, Hero calls $5,

TURN ($17) 556J

bets $13, Hero calls $13,

RIVER ($43) 556JK

bets $42.40 (AI), Hero Folds?

Villain is 62/52/1.8 and c/r-f is 25%. How is my line?

If I'm planning to continue with the hand after the flop, which I very likely will be, I'm not just calling. Too many cards kill the action/ beat our hand. I'd rather just valuetown 77, 88 some gay 6. And, if he does have me beat, at least i played it like a man.

You try to get it in on the flop? I think I like it, especially with some draws out.

his c/r frequency is 25% on the flop? or in general? over how many hands?

b3b flop! Especially vs a guy who C/R-es 25%, which means he does this with overs, gutshots, all kinds of crap! A lot of nasty turns either kill your action, put you in a nasty spot (as happened in this hand) or make him the best hand.

jam the flop IMO

how weak of a hand are we jamming flop?

I think the best line here is to call the flop and raise/jam any turn.

If his check raise is 25% then most of his range on a dry paired flop like this is bluffs and you want to capture the value of his turn barrel as well. I don't like just calling the turn because you are giving too many cards and will kill your action if he does have a 6 or 7s/8s. You might also end up second guessing yourself, especially if an ace hits. It also seems unlikely that he will continue a bluff on the river in this spot if you just call the turn.

If he turns up with a 5 here then all of the check raise bluffs he did in the past are paying off. You just can't give him credit for a 5 here basically ever.

Versus described villain who C/R-es 25%, K6+ I think, but this is obviously villain dependant.

plenty of cards for him to barrel tho on the turn, wouldnt calling down be the most ev+ from his whole range

This is a very good post.

i would jam most turns, because he shows up with bluffs more ofen than not if he is cr 25%

Wow guys, I think this is absolutely awful. If we bet/3bet the flop, what worse hands is he shipping? The only draw he might ship is 78 and even that is usually just going to fold to your flop 3bet. He has to think you are 3bet bluffing this flop so much that he ships complete air in order for 3betting this flop to be the correct decision. The standard play on the flop for him most likely isn't even to check/raise 77 or 88 (if he doesn't 3bet those preflop) so you are turning your 99 into a bluff since there are basically no hands that we beat that ship the flop. Also, he is defending a really wide range preflop according to those stats, and still managing to check/raise 25%. That means he is check/raising a huge air(/semibluff) range, especially on this board that is so hard for him to hit. So if the majority of his range is bluffs/semibluffs, let him hang himself on the turn. You shouldn't be worried about overcards or anything like that on the turn because he is going to be bluffing those cards way more than he will actually hit them, so let your hand be exactly what it is... a bluff catcher.

I don't think you can jam flop because raise is like 3.5~x pot, which is pretty retarded

I like your thinking. But I think you could argue that sealing the deal on the flop isn't a bad option, because although we're only valuetowning a few hands, we're gettin folds here all day long, and those extra BB's would look real nice in your account.