Originally Posted by Khal Drogo
Pretty sure any 2 pair should fold against this shove. It's awful.
No, noone is a fan of what you actually did. You realise for it to be a good bluff, it has to work close to 100% of the time?!
Sets raise the flop, so I literally lose to 3 combos of 88 and against those I have an oesd so not like I'm even drawing dead. Let's assume I have 8 outs:
odds of winning when called = 8/44 = 18.18%
Amount I win when he folds = $40
Amount I win when he calls and I win = $439
Amount I lose when he calls and I lose = $399
Let x = how often he calls. Total money I win:
x*(.1818*439-0.818*399) + (1-x)*40
-246.57*x + 40 - 40*x
-286.57*x + 40
Set that to 0 to see what breakeven point is:
40 = 286.57*x
x = 13.958%
So he has to fold ~86% of the time for this to be +ev.
He calls with 3 combos.
3 = .14*x
x = 21.4
So as long as he has a total of over 22 combos on the turn, the shove is +ev. Given that he was defending something like 80% of the time preflop and not folding that many flops it's pretty obvious he has way more than 22 combos and this shove is actually an extremely profitable bluff.
But keep just playing standard and not thinking out of the box. Meanwhile I'll keep printing money crushing regs at 400nl.