Two Plus Two Poker Forums 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Heads Up NL Discussion of heads up NL Texas Hold'em cash games

05-17-2012, 03:02 PM   #16
grinder

Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 544
Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by czechvengeance [ ] OP understands poker
We can play HU if you'd like.

 05-17-2012, 03:18 PM #17 adept     Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 923 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw Pretty sure any 2 pair should fold against this shove. It's awful. No, noone is a fan of what you actually did. You realise for it to be a good bluff, it has to work close to 100% of the time?!
05-17-2012, 03:55 PM   #18
grinder

Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 544
Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Khal Drogo Pretty sure any 2 pair should fold against this shove. It's awful. No, noone is a fan of what you actually did. You realise for it to be a good bluff, it has to work close to 100% of the time?!
Sets raise the flop, so I literally lose to 3 combos of 88 and against those I have an oesd so not like I'm even drawing dead. Let's assume I have 8 outs:

odds of winning when called = 8/44 = 18.18%

Amount I win when he folds = \$40
Amount I win when he calls and I win = \$439
Amount I lose when he calls and I lose = \$399

Let x = how often he calls. Total money I win:

x*(.1818*439-0.818*399) + (1-x)*40
-246.57*x + 40 - 40*x
-286.57*x + 40
Set that to 0 to see what breakeven point is:
40 = 286.57*x
x = 13.958%
So he has to fold ~86% of the time for this to be +ev.

He calls with 3 combos.

3 = .14*x
x = 21.4

So as long as he has a total of over 22 combos on the turn, the shove is +ev. Given that he was defending something like 80% of the time preflop and not folding that many flops it's pretty obvious he has way more than 22 combos and this shove is actually an extremely profitable bluff.

But keep just playing standard and not thinking out of the box. Meanwhile I'll keep printing money crushing regs at 400nl.

 05-17-2012, 05:24 PM #19 old hand     Join Date: May 2009 Location: gutrotting Posts: 1,605 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw haha.
 05-17-2012, 09:16 PM #20 old hand     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: the Netherlands Posts: 1,889 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw This thread is such a waste of space...
 05-17-2012, 10:05 PM #21 journeyman     Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: BURRR, Canada Posts: 279 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw your betting 460 into pot of 40, if he was showing more aggression and pot was bigger this would be a good place to shove. for now i just think a near pot size bet is good.
 05-17-2012, 11:44 PM #22 centurion     Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: tha throne Posts: 120 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw It's only 399. It's fine, honestly I'm not sure why you posted it. Completely standard. Move along now...
05-18-2012, 06:51 AM   #23
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 12,601
Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gimmedacrown It's only 399. It's fine, honestly I'm not sure why you posted it. Completely standard. Move along now...
This

 05-18-2012, 04:52 PM #24 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: some of us have to grow up sometime Posts: 24,837 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw sometimes i wonder about you
05-18-2012, 05:09 PM   #25
journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Lithuania
Posts: 336
Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ReDLiNeMaKeDiKHaRd Sets raise the flop, so I literally lose to 3 combos of 88 and against those I have an oesd so not like I'm even drawing dead. Let's assume I have 8 outs: odds of winning when called = 8/44 = 18.18% Amount I win when he folds = \$40 Amount I win when he calls and I win = \$439 Amount I lose when he calls and I lose = \$399 Let x = how often he calls. Total money I win: x*(.1818*439-0.818*399) + (1-x)*40 -246.57*x + 40 - 40*x -286.57*x + 40 Set that to 0 to see what breakeven point is: 40 = 286.57*x x = 13.958% So he has to fold ~86% of the time for this to be +ev. He calls with 3 combos. 3 = .14*x x = 21.4 So as long as he has a total of over 22 combos on the turn, the shove is +ev. Given that he was defending something like 80% of the time preflop and not folding that many flops it's pretty obvious he has way more than 22 combos and this shove is actually an extremely profitable bluff. But keep just playing standard and not thinking out of the box. Meanwhile I'll keep printing money crushing regs at 400nl.
openjamming AA is also +EV...

05-18-2012, 05:27 PM   #26

Join Date: May 2012
Location: No longer \$12
Posts: 1,097
Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by zachvac This
why do you comment on your own hands?

 05-21-2012, 06:59 AM #27 old hand   Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,287 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw just jam every turn becuase villain can never have the nuts if he doesnt raise u otf and they should fold most of their range anyways.
 05-22-2012, 02:10 AM #28 old hand     Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: 4betting for information Posts: 1,638 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw 1.5x-2x pot instead of 10x pot imo But I suck so w/e
 05-22-2012, 08:47 PM #29 stranger     Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4 Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw This is a very advanced play. I would only do it if the opponent is a level 14 thinker or above.
05-27-2012, 03:10 PM   #30
veteran

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Cheated BBV for \$7500
Posts: 2,957
Re: 400nl HU vs. reg I turn the nuts and want to rep a draw

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Khal Drogo Pretty sure any 2 pair should fold against this shove. It's awful. No, noone is a fan of what you actually did. You realise for it to be a good bluff, it has to work close to 100% of the time?!
False, it only has to work approximately 91% of the time or better (last time I checked 91 is not close to 100) and that is even assuming we have 0% equity when called.

That said, I don't understand why its so easy for people to get trolled.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is OffTrackbacks are Off Pingbacks are Off Refbacks are Off Forum Rules

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:55 AM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.6.0 ©2011, Crawlability, Inc.