oops read that wrong. I think since he checks the river id just go for a half pot bet where he has good odds to call here. HE probably just has a small pair he tryign to show down cheap with. If you bet to much he probably fold.
I guess we are overbetting to rep a missed draw no?
I think that is sort of leveling and i'm not sure it makes sense to advise leveling without a lot more insight than OP gave us.
I think your opponent is either playing a draw and has surrendored (unlikely to call anything)
Or he has a peice of it that is not so great/small PP. Another destinct possibility is a combo draw that didn't improve.
There's maybe an outside chance this is a player who will try to keep pot managable with something like top pair bad kicker. Some players take that concept too far and i see a lot of it (usually but not always when in position). He sees the draw heavy board and wants to protect his stack while allowing you to bluff off your chips to him. He's now hoping you missed your draw and will call you for sure, possibly even raise.
I think we should bet small for two reasons;
a) allow opponent to call with any small peice
b) give opp room to bluff raise us if he thinks we may have both missed
c) give opponent room to make what he thinks is a value x/r with top pair.
If he has a missed draw the only way we concievably make money is to bet small and induce a bluff
If he has a small peice he may or may not call depending on our sizing
If he has an actual hand like maybe tp pair or even a small two pair he backed into while on drw/combo draw then we will probably do better to put it all in but sometimes he's going to x/raise us if we bet small.
On balance it seems to me like a pretty standard spot to make about 1/2 pot bet. Especially with opp knowing we will vbet thin.
If i'm incorrect about why we would overbet here, what is the reason?
(c) is extremely hopeful. Hardly any worse hands he can value raise if we bet small except maybe something like 67s.
I just quite like an OB with alot of our range. A spot where he's nearly always going to have a bluff catcher vs our river bet and it's a spot where I want to bluff alot and there are alot of missed draws so betting big with our range seems reasonable. If his range consisted of as many small pairs as you're putting him on (a) then I see argument for betting small, but I think he folds most of those on the turn. He might fold 7x on the turn and probably all worse.
The whole betting to induce a bluff raise from missed draws is a bit overplayed aswell imo. Alot of his flop FDs are going to be combo/nut draws that are going to take action other than c/c, c/c. And I doubt people at NL25 are that inclined to raise a small bet as a bluff much here (there'll call/fold with weak pairs and quickly toss missed draws). I might be wrong about that, complete speculation.
Overall I really don't like betting less than 4/5 pot here.
Two Plus Two
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