Originally Posted by baseChaser
The question to consider here is how often will he bluff raise the river? If the answer is never then you must bet it and fold to a raise since he is a station. I don't think he will ever bet a worse hand if you check the river and there are no broke draws that would bluff to a check. Just hope he has kj or something and continue to rack up bluff image points.
This question sort of implies opponent is steamed. If he's steamed enough to raise you on the river then he's probably steamed enough to bluff if you x.
Disregarding the specific reads on opponent though, is anyone calling river with Kx/JJ- often enough to make this a bet? Station or not i think he bluffs more than he calls on river. Thats what it comes down to to me. If he could be taking a trappy looking line in order to bluff river he may change his mind if you bet but he may think you're scared of the ace if you check and put in a big move.
If his blff range + thin bet range(bets you can beat) is > his pay off range then you don't want to bet river
And, yeah, OP.. you answered your own question. If he will often fold to 2 barell then maybe its OK to 2 barell, if he will pay off with Kx 90% then you bet the river. If you think Kx is most likely and that he's more likely to call then to bluff or value bet his hand then bet/fold river is pretty obv.