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Old 02-03-2012, 04:57 PM   #1
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20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

So I'm unsure as to whether I played this hand right from the turn. Although the 3 bet PF with 55 isn't that standard, the villain was playing fairly passively and folding frequently (~70% at the time if I remember correctly...)

So from the flop as I was C betting pretty often and his fold to C bet was ~30% I decided to bet for value. When he calls I'm putting him on drawing hands and top pair kinda hands like KT/AT etc. When the 8 comes on the turn it completes QJ and I think he will fire a lot when I check regardless of the hand he holds, so I c/c. On the river he bets quite big, so is it for value with TT/99/QJ or more likely TPTK/2 pair kinda hand? Not sure whether I've really played it right on all post flop streets tbh so feel free to rate/slate as you wish.

iPoker - $0.20 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

SB: $30.66
Hero (BB): $25.61

SB posts SB $0.10, Hero posts BB $0.20

Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero has 5 5

SB raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1.20, SB calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.40, 2 players) 5 T 9
Hero bets $1.60, SB calls $1.60

Turn: ($5.60, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, SB bets $4.00, Hero calls $4.00

River: ($13.60, 2 players) K
Hero checks, SB bets $10.20, Hero???
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:08 PM   #2
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

Call river you are very under-repped. He could be doing this with a two pair or a good TX hand.

I would normally c-bet the turn and river.
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Old 02-03-2012, 05:12 PM   #3
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Quote:
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Call river you are very under-repped. He could be doing this with a two pair or a good TX hand.

I would normally c-bet the turn and river.
+1 to everything.
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Old 02-04-2012, 06:12 AM   #4
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

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Call river you are very under-repped. He could be doing this with a two pair or a good TX hand.

I would normally c-bet the turn and river.
How are you responding to a turn/river raise? Would that indicate too much strength and b/f the hand is best?
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Old 02-04-2012, 08:28 AM   #5
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

So basically in that last post you're admitting that your initial excuse for ch/c (he will fire a lot) was all bull**** and in reality you were just paranoid of being beat and not even thinking in terms of ranges of being beat, just thinking that if you check you probably don't have to fold. Just bet turn and river. I'd rarely be folding this ever, although you know better than us and if he really is super tight in defending it's possible he has a set/straight a lot when he raises so we can bet/fold. I'd make sure to have a pretty sick read on that first though before folding.
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:22 AM   #6
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

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Originally Posted by zachvac View Post
So basically in that last post you're admitting that your initial excuse for ch/c (he will fire a lot) was all bull**** and in reality you were just paranoid of being beat and not even thinking in terms of ranges of being beat, just thinking that if you check you probably don't have to fold. Just bet turn and river. I'd rarely be folding this ever, although you know better than us and if he really is super tight in defending it's possible he has a set/straight a lot when he raises so we can bet/fold. I'd make sure to have a pretty sick read on that first though before folding.
Steady on mate, was only asking to improve my game, HU cash is fairly new to me...

I was saying at first I felt that by checking I would be able to get two decent streets of value but when I need ~43% EV on the river I'm wondering what he bets 3/4 pot. So I'm thinking a higher set (probably not 88 though), a straight, KT/9T/89 for two pair and maybe (albeit very loose) AK or an overpair. I'm ruling out the one pair hands, thinking air is pretty unlikely, and 2 pair he isn't always going to bet for value. So in that situation, I thought it was a fairly borderline decision.

In retrospect C betting through is probably a better choice though for a few reasons as mentioned...
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:32 AM   #7
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

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Originally Posted by madjimmo View Post
but when I need ~43% EV on the river
Lots of failing with pot odds on this board recently.
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:39 AM   #8
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

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Lots of failing with pot odds on this board recently.
But a 3/4 pot bet needs ~43% odds to be called profitably. As in 0.75/1.75. Unless you're referring to previous streets...
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Old 02-04-2012, 03:49 PM   #9
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

ok lets see, if you win the pot 43% of the time you win

43% * (23.80) + 57% (-10.20) = 4.42

so thats a very profitable call if you ask me
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Old 02-04-2012, 08:21 PM   #10
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

He's accounting for rake with the 43%.
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Old 02-04-2012, 09:43 PM   #11
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

$10 rake? crazy
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Old 02-05-2012, 01:05 AM   #12
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

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$10 rake? crazy
On Everleaf network, at least at some point in time they actually had 5% up to 5 EUR rake in euro tables, including HU. That wouldn't be too far from that (tho the pot in this case obv isn't big enough to reach it).
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Old 02-05-2012, 04:28 AM   #13
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

I mean obv I was kidding...
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Old 02-05-2012, 04:40 AM   #14
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

I actually don't mind your c/c line on turn looking at it now, it can induce a lot of bluffs against an aggressive type and majorly under reps your hand, although i would be betting turn myself more often than not. Only hands you can be really worried about on river are QJ,67, otherwise it was set over set on flop/turn and $$ should of been in on a cooler anyhow, snap call for me.
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Old 02-05-2012, 09:31 AM   #15
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Re: 20nl - Right Play with flopped set?

OK meant 30%...

Note to self, do proper maths at the tables.
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