Hero (SB): $401
BB: $352

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q A
Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $12

Flop: ($36) 4 3 2 (2 players)
BB bets $27, Hero calls $27

Turn: ($90) K (2 players)
BB bets $45, Hero calls $45

River: ($180) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $135, Hero?

We played for a shortwhile. He just lost a bi in the previous hand where i 3bet and 3barrel for value. I belive this is his 3rd 3bet in like 20 hands but first that i call. He looks on the tighter side, playing like 70% ip and 40% oop.
Thoughts on any street?

i think w/o much relevant history in these spots i'd fold turn, he can't rly expect to fold out much of your range after calling on 432 w/ a half pot bet, i guess. as played i think river is a clear fold.

i'll think about some other options/think more about the hand in general and try to provide a more thought-out answer later.

i really dont think, that is true. HERO´s perceived range is tons of ace high, a very few PPs and the ace high fold or river normally, so thats basically an invitation to double or triple barrel here cauz hero doesnt really have alot or any KX in his range

i like pre and flop. you have to either call turn and river or fold turn IMO. As i said in the post above, a thinking opponent knows, you dont really have KX in your range, so its in invitation to triple barrel IMO. A4 is here for the most part the same hand as AQ... do you call A4 on river?

u seem to be very good at doing only one side of the analysis. good luck calling these spots w/ a high frequency. payoff-wizardery at its finest.

sorry, but i dont get you here. I have never said, i would call. Actually i would fold very often, but when i call turn, then its not to fold river

I would like to hear more of your thought process because i hear this tossing around alot. What elements in his game/line/board would make you think his betting range otr remains the same as his turn betting range?

The way i see it, ott, he still has plenty on semibluffs (like Ax, some 5x) given the turn being such a good card for barreling plus we have loats of equity anyway plus we are deep. So I kinda like my turn call especially w/ the recent dynamic. I might be wrong tho

Ok, my thought process here. Thats exactly why i expect a nl200 reg to bet river as a bluff here often. He knows, that you know, that he has plenty of semibluffs in his range and therefore you call nearly your whole range again on turn, but fold a ton of it to another bet on river.
This and since i see AQ pretty much the same hand as A4 or 55 or so here (for the most part!), you should pretty much call turn and river or give him credit right now (on the turn).

If it would be against a nl50 reg, call turn and give up river is better /no that bad cauz those players think a level above and give up river way more often.

Thats just my thinking, other ppl can obv. have other thoughts about it and i could be wrong

call turn & river or fold turn.

Calling turn and folding blank rivers is burning money.

given the very little information u gave id suggest folding turn since u can easily get barreled of on the river given the stacksize. futher on he might be more likely to 3 barrel bluff since u just stacked him.

sucks to fold turn because he will be barreling that card quite often. but calling turn to call blank rivers seems like fps when you're readless. So fold turn imo.

Shove river imo. Can't call unless he has KKK.

+1 and you can also rep 56 and you also have an A5 blocker.

Sounds cool but him folding 100% of his top pairs its kinda unrealistic so if we are trying to make him fold top pair in 3betpot then he should also vbet this river with 55+ and those busted draw bluffs too imo.

Board: 342 K 8
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****44.49%**44.12%***0.37%*{ QQ }
BB*****55.51%**55.15%***0.37%*{ 22+, AKs, K2s+, Q5s, 85s, 75s, 54s, AKo, KJo+, 75o }

I stove it for him folding anything but tp+. Although you may argue that 22-77 may not be in his range, i say given that ive just stacked him he might 3bet those too.

Anyway, if we shove he must fold 47% of his range (we bet ~280 into 315) but his tp+ makes 60% of his betting range. So its -EV

If he folds 50%+ of his top pairs then its +EV:

Board: 342*K*8
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
SB*****56.86%**56.54%***0.33%*{ AA, QQ }
BB*****43.14%**42.81%***0.33%*{ 22+, AKs, K2s+, Q5s, 85s, 75s, 65s, 54s, AKo, KJo+, 75o, 65o }


Im kinda tired atm and possibly f* up the math/ranges. Feel free to correct me.

As played, that's clearly the best move but even better is to donk 1/3 pot otr to induce him to shove his air and obviously we're snap-calling.
It also folds all his non-nut hands, Kx etc... and acts as a blocking bet when he has sets or A5 that he can't raise for value in case we have the nuts, so it's an all-purpose bet.