(THIS EQUALS TO 140NL, THE MONEY IS SWEDISH SEK AND NOT $)



V: 41/32/1.2AF, 17 3b, 13f23b 841hands (This is with some 5-max hands aswell) I have sharkscoped him and he is apparently a big winner over a good sample.
I was: 50/47/2.3AF, 23.5 3b (over 100 hands on the table)


Turn: So he minraises me, this is one of the few times i think the baluga theorem does not apply. And its because of the stack sizes, its a 3bet pot and usually if he had a good hand he would probably just call ott and then shove over my bet otr.
So his raise looks FOS to me here and thats why i called.

River: This is where i actually had a pretty hard decision but i felt pot commited to call it off.
That T is pretty much the worse card that could come but it is not the T so the FD missed.

Its only a half pot bet OTR and i only need to be good 25% to break even and i thought i was committed here so i called it off.


Thoughts?

It is a very difficult hand. The turn raise can easily be just a chance to scare you into giving him a free card on the river, unless he hits which results in a shove. so were talking FD and j10. So a shove on river makes sense with j10 as well. Results?

River can go either way for me. I'd probably call too.

Try and give us heads up stats by position rather than mixed stats not related to position. And sharkscope stats means nothing.

Results later.
Uhm sharkscope results is absolutely good to look at, its great to know if ur playing a winning reg or a loosing/breakeven player.

To give stats from every pos is just hard to do, but these stats is almost 95% HU and only 5% 5-m so i dont think it matters too much.

You weren't agro enough for you to shove OTT? You are behind 44 and 99 (not even 100% of the time) and Q9 (and that's discounted), also AQ (again discounted due to card removal effect and possibility of him to 4bet it), that's it, and enough of stuff that might call your shove.
What was your 3bet% and his 3xing pre OTB?
Him not folding almost at all to your 3bets over 800 hands has lots of reads. Try to go over them and pick up few good tells.

P.S. oh, just saw that you 3bet wide enough, well that makes things easier lol. And disregard 800 hands, just saw last paragraph about 100 hands.

You could get away OTT with solid reads actually, given it's 200bb pot against low stakes reg, despite your image, the amount of combos that have you beat, but wouldn't fault you for going with it. I guess he showed you 44/Q9/Q4s this time.

if i shove ott i wont keep his bluffs in that he shove otr when miss, he had a high river-AFq and he almost always bets river when he miss his draws.

alright v showed up with KJo lol, he binked the river, im pretty sure he would've shoved anyway aswell.

Wtf?! Sharkscope only shows mtts and sngs. Who cares if he's winning at those. Winning mtt players are the biggest HU cash fish you find at MS+. Every position is too much ffort?! It's only SB and BB. It's so much more useful to know their SB/BB vpip as opposed to their overall vpip. Surprised you don't appreciate this.

Honestly I think you played the hand fine also. Shoving the turn would be kinda bad PD

-there's $1,690 in the pot with $1,389 behind ($999 for villain to call off),
-hero 3bets 23.5%, so the image is agro (unless hero's been a nit postflop),
-villain is not folding to 3bets, beeing stubborn (OP still didn't say what was V's button opening range),
-we are not behind many hands,
-villain's definetly can play back at us here
-villain will stack off with drawing hands,
-because turn card brings so much trouble OTR
-decision for villain to bluff with only half-PSB left OTR.

Care to explain, how is this bad?

Im not sure of how to only see stats of SB/BB, because its a difference between HU SB/BB than a 5-m SB/BB.

Yeah ur right that its a huge difference between SNG/MTT than HU cash but its still something to see if they are a winning poker player.

My 3b is a little lower, this is only 100hands at the tbl, ive got 800 hands with V. But yeah i have a pretty aggro image.

I dont think V will stack off with gutshots, maybe OESD but not always, he also has overcards that he snap folds if i jam and i actually think he aint too good of a HU player and he might have some pure air aswell.
All those hands is folds if i shove but will often shove themselves when they miss otr. V has a high AFq-OTR and almost always bluffs missed draws, i know stacks otr was shallow but i still think V will bluff pretty often.

EM,

how are you going to keep beeing agressive, winning and putting pressure on villain if you 3bet close to 30% lifetime and taking this "3bet/cbet/2barr/call -reev.call" line 200bb deep in the spot where it's pretty close, and you almost always end up here with this KQ type hand, basically playing almost face up against good thinking agressive enough player and losing capability of rebluffing him with air and draws, which are bigger part of your 30% 3betting range? I'm easily taking this KQ and merging it and shove at the right game flow, unless i believe that he WILL bluff the river at good enough frequency, or will call and reev.-fold river if i have pretty good read that he won't bet thin/turn hands into bluff/bluff missed, and i could fold turn straight away with real sharp reads.

Now let's get back to this villain - he is by no means in that "good thinking agressive player"category:
You say people bluff river here all the time with 1/2 PSB left - really? NL100 regs do it that often? Ok, even if that would've been true - then how is it congruent with your thinking that he is crazy enough to continue bluffing off here, when you are face up and you are not willing to fold and you are getting odds to call (as Hero obviously proved by stating this and indeed looking him up) and yet you say he is polarised OTT to nutty hands and weakest draws, but he would just flat or shove turn with better draws?
BTW, i do agree that this guy is indeed polarised in this manner, but i logically keep drawing line and making conclusion, that he will check back the river with missed hands with only 1/2PSB left (he is not great player, but he is not a random donk either to blindly bluff off every time he misses) and will bet when he hits, besides all nutty hands from before river. If it was NL400, then definetly I'd believe that he understands that my range is so heavy of weak bluffcatchers and that he will continue pound OTR with v.high frequency. So when not having reads (as OP didn't provide much) this litle thing does come into my mind and sways the decision in different directions. But right after your post OP added interesting reads, that villain has high riv-AFq and almost always bluffs missed draws - well then OP played the hand perfectly, as long as he called down OTR.

P.S. Wish I knew how to quote correctly the edit you've made in my quote, so i'll just number it by your red font replies:

1)Because the amount of money left compare to pot size is good for us to rebluff/semibluff.
2)If you would call, it means you don't have air, ducy?
3)It leads to increasing the chance of him looking us up lighter, which goes down as low, as draws
4)Againg it's a matter of protecting your air range
5)As I've said before, our call will scare this villain and he will shut down OTR, when behind ALOT.
6)Explained already, just to add: in case he was doing it with like weak QJ/A9
type hande, he was doing to check back the river, so you won't get value from those.
7)200bbs deep with no good reads it is enough trouble facing decision on enough rivers
8)already said, that i disagree that the "mean" is on the bluffing off the rest side of average NL100 reg.

Feel free to continue, I haveto sleep, will get back tomorrow. Cheers!

Why would your perceived range contain a lot of weak bluff catchers? What hands would you categorize as a weak bluff catcher? Isn't your perceived range fairly strong when you double barrel this board and call a turn raise?

PD is spot on imo.

I guess the crucial difference between our perceptions of his range are:

1) You think he has a decent amount of hands that he's min raising to get to showdown that are pairs and stuff, but he's also calling a jam with them?

2) You think he's min raise/calling loads of his strong draws.

I do not think either of these are that likely to be true, but I may be way off. I think 1 is certainly possible but I don't see it alot unless things have changed alot recently. Regarding 2, I think he's so much more likely to jam or call again with strong draws.

My assumptions that 1 and 2 do not make up significant portions of his range, and that he'll have quite alot of random air hands, leads me to believe that calling>jamming.