Opponent is somewhat solid although I catch him making stack sized bluffs occasionally. I stacked him in this way in the first few hands. This is about 5 minutes later. He doesn't 3 bet pre very often.

He plays a nine just like this and I'm blocking most Tx. Maybe a stupid question, but do you just go with this?

Also I thimk my turn sizing sucks.

Irrelevant detail because people hardly ever x/r Tx here.

Call turn.

Do you expect 9x to usually open shove the river? That's basically the most relevant piece of info and without it you should check.

Please explain why calling turn with 2nd nuts is good when I know he'll at least call with lots of 9x?

other than to keep bluffs and draws in his range im wondering the same. if you fairly certian he has a 9 why would you not want to build a big pot?

.

I'm not sure bluffs and draws check raise the turn. Bluffs maybe. Draws no. That seems like a steep price to pay if we don't stack 9x.

sounds like you've got it all figured out

So why did you post this thread?

--what XR turn? OP: 9x and Bluffs
--What calls OP's turn 3bet? 9x
--Does TTT99 beat 9999T on the river? no, check.

That seems like about as easy of a logical path to follow as there is in poker. So why did you post the thread?

Here's the real answer: Mostly everyone playing 10nl is horrible. People certainly XR draws on the turn. Not sure how you're distinguishing those 2?? Is Q8o a draw or bluff? What isnt a draw that called the flop A8? Anyways so yeah ppl do do that--you're wrong. It's much more common than them XR a T or a 2. You will stack about 75% of 10nl players on 100% of rivers when they have a 9. The other 25% you'll stack on at least 75% of rivers. And you're going to be making $ by keeping the draws and bluffs in. But write an equation out and show under what assumptions/thresholds it's better to 3bet turn than call.

There was no flop call, it was checked by both players.

If the river is a 9 and our opponent has a 9 then we get stacked. (The board would be 29T99)

oops misread

I'm saying on the entirety of all possible rivers, when the decision point is on the turn.

Nobody think he could have QJ/J8 a lot at these stakes?

Go.

Boy I'm tired.

Okay. So he checks the flop, you check behind.
He checks, then you bet 2/3rd of the flop and he check raises you and you fight back on a flush board and 9 doubles up. Yay. perfect. You raised to $3.30? Against his range that seems fine to me you want to price him in to a lot of things. there's straight draws and flush draws out there, lots of pocket pairs that have plenty of reason to no believe you, and even in Ax depending on how frustrated you're getting him. Oh no, the 9 hit. the worst possible card for your imagination hit. Also the one that means it's very unlikely he's holding one and he's more likely to call an over bet with all sorts of cards like Ax and pocket pairs and even that beautiful A2 of diamonds he might be holding onto that could be an amazing bluff catcher.

Pot Size Bet him.

I really can't see how you're not committed in this pot. He might have JJ/QQ/KK/AA too and got afraid you holding a 9. But if you want to keep variance down, then just check behind. But I think you're losing value long term and it's so rare that the third 9 shows up anyhow.