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10NL river play 10NL river play

08-12-2016 , 01:16 PM
Hello! I dont know was my river shove good ot not can u tell me? Villain is agr "reg".

iPoker - £0.10 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 297 BB
SB: 112.6 BB (VPIP: 77.78, PFR: 73.81, 3Bet Preflop: 45.65, Hands: 159)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

SB raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, SB calls 5 BB

Flop: (15 BB, 2 players) 6 K 2
Hero bets 10.5 BB, SB calls 10.5 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 25.2 BB, SB calls 25.2 BB

River: (86.4 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 77 BB, SB calls 69.4 BB

Spoiler:
SB shows 7 6 (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 38%, Flop 18%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows A K (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Pre 62%, Flop 82%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 7.6 BB
SB wins 215.2 BB
10NL river play Quote
08-12-2016 , 08:45 PM
I think the most notable thing to take away from this hand is the fact that the opponent called the turn here. When someone gets stubborn in a board like that he likely has something. KQ,KJ,KT,K9 sometimes K8, sometimes 77 or 88 (depending on his 4bets) and 6x connected and suited are what im thinking to myself hes holding after he calls the turn. If he's a reg and his 3bet stat is through the roof I would personally expect a clubdraw to have shown some sort of aggression earlier. The board blocks the king of clubs which IMO furthers this theory.

So considering all this and being at the river i think its a better idea to check call. A shove isn't that bad as there is only 69bb left behind and the pot is 86bb already and he will often commit himself with a worse K here.

Let's say you were deeper though, Its thin but you might want to bet smaller and fold to a raise. Discounting a fair number of flushdraws as he could play them earlier i think its a fold to a raise on this river. Its going to be KQ or 6x so often as he has no reason to raise KJ KT etc. He's never going to make it to the river with a bare Q so you don't need to worry about him trying to get to showdown that often unless its specifically 77 or 88. And he may turn that into a bluff some of the time when you check anyways.

Given the stack depth though - sometimes you will call and lose on this river but I don't think you can fold after checking at these stakes unless you have an exceptional read on your opponent. Many many players (esp agressive ones such as the sb here) will bet their KT, KJ, K9 and sometimes he might have K8 and bet when you check the river. Not all of these hands will call a shove all the time though and I think thats the important thing to take away here. A good player should be checking back these weaker kings but that is not happening enough at 10nl to warrent a fold to a bet.

Last edited by ZR388; 08-12-2016 at 09:06 PM.
10NL river play Quote
08-12-2016 , 09:34 PM
Also lets do a little combo math here.

Hands that are beating you:
6 combos of KQ
2 combos of 65 suited
2 combos of 67 suited
2 combos of 68 suited
2 combos of 69 suited
--Lets give him only 67 offsuit
6 combos of 67 offsuit
1 combo of 66

21 hands you are losing to

Hands that you are crushing:
8 combos of KJ
8 combos of KT
8 combos of K9
-- Since hes calling 67o we are going to give him K8 as well
8 combos of K8
-- Lets give him half the combos of 77 and 88 as we say he 4bets those some of the time
3 combos of 77
3 combos of 88

38 hands you are beating

As you can see you are ahead almost twice as often as you are behind in this spot. The key point in the analysis though is that he is an aggressive player with a high 3bet stat. This leads me to believe when you check the river he is shipping in almost every one of those 38 hands you are beating. Depending on your image and how good of an opponent the villain is, you lose out on some of the weaker kings and you always lose out on the midrange pocket pairs as well as the every so often stubbon flushdraw / ace high if you shove. Give him a chance to bluff some of these hands. If he was a loose passive player I would absolutely advocate shoving over checking the river but this isn't the case.

(Disclaimer, its fairly early here I hope the math is right )

Last edited by ZR388; 08-12-2016 at 09:48 PM.
10NL river play Quote

      
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