Standard fold on river?

Reads on him: very straightforward nitty player seems pretty bad havent seen him made 1 bluff yet
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i know this line looks very weird and all but seriously are people like this ever bluffing in this spot? (river betsizing aswell)
also my hand looks alot like Ax
what you guys do here?

fold turn? im not sure i mean this guy is prob never leading out with ax

IPoker Network $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 1819061
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $118.25
Hero (BTN/SB): $246.77

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN/SB with J T
Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.00) J A 4 (2 players)
BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.00) K (2 players)
BB bets $11.25, Hero calls $11.25

River: ($37.50) J (2 players)
BB bets $58.00, Hero calls $58

flop is pretty standard although he did donk bet out, i probably would fold the turn as you said he is a very straightforward nitty player, as played im calling the river here, and taking a note of bet sizing and what he donked the flop with..

his 3b%? donkbet-frequencies? vpip bb?

sure?

3bet 10%~ call open 43%
first donkbet
saw him c/c ax on similar flops i dont expect him to randomly lead ax then

btw. i would fold turn almost always here. forgot to mention that... first donkbet, and then a "double" donkbet is usually strong, especially on a board where he normally cant have all the strong hands...

river he repps 44, few combos of AJ/KJ/JJ.. maybe some QT and although thats a small range, i would give him credit and probably find a fold... you always have JX or AX and i doubt he is trying to fold out that range... looks more like value against floated flushes or whatever with a boat

Fold turn. Once you get to the river and face OB shove from such villain it's fairly easy muck. He's got 44/flush/QT/AJ/KJ like 99% of the time probably.

+1

Especially based off your description

bleeeh i think it's a fold

Calling that river is extremely -EV, and I mean you're basically never ever good.

Honestly, given the description you gave, I'm pretty shocked you can make that call on the river.

The fact that you say "my hand looks like Ax" leads me to believe that you might think there's a difference between Ax and your actual hand.

There isn't. Your hand is 100% a bluff catcher on the river, you're behind 100% of his value range, there's no difference between trips and 4x against that player (and the majority of regs at those stakes anyway)


Easy fold on the turn anyway. Only likely legitimate donking hands you were ahead of on the flop just made a pair or a straight (KQ, KT, QT) and wouldn't bet again with Kx, which you're behind anyway.

Hard to give a frequency on AJ/44 without a PF 3b %, but combo-wise you see QT the vast majority of the time here, imo.

Also, not sure what you mean by "I know this line looks very weird", I see players donk with GS/Strong made hands a ton in these spots and 3 barrel them.
Calling down vs a nitty straight-fwd player in these spots is a huge leak.

fold turn.

as played fold river.

god damn against a nit u can even make a case for folding flop kiddo.

Fold turn and river. Flop seems fine tho obv