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Old 07-06-2012, 06:20 PM   #126
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by Skallagrim View Post
LetsGambool, state lotteries only have the power that they do because of current federal legislation - specifically the law that prevents lotteries in one state from selling tickets in another state.

But that law only applies to traditional lotteries and their tickets. It is not designed to also apply to the new world of online scratch tickets indistinguishable from online slots.

Right now, thanks to the DOJ, states have the ability to allow their monopoly lotteries and/or instate casino interests to start online slots and similar games. Delaware has done it and New Jersey and Illinois are considering it.

But what stops Delaware from offering its games in New Jersey or Illinois once those states also allow online casino games? Only state law ... state law subject to Dormant Commerce Clause analysis.

Without federal legal protection, state lotteries that start online games could very easily be forced to also surrender their monopolies on those games. Thus allowing an opportunistic state like maybe Nevada to authorize private business to offer national lotteries in which 40-50-60% does not have to go "to the children."

Ask your friendly neighborhood lottery director which is more important: preventing out-of-state operators from running games in his/her state or getting his/her lottery in on online slots?

So for state lotteries the point is to be careful of what you wish for ....

And so their are ways for even state lotteries to also get behind this federal legislation; even if (and for the benefit of a certain troll I emphasize IF) it doesn't give them unfettered rights to have an in-state monopoly on online slots.

Skallagrim
Skall, that's interesting analysis, but it it doesn't really address either of my two points.

It certainly seemed like, from comments made on here this Spring, the lotteries were a major factor in gumming up a potential attachment. So is there something in that analysis that wasn't there a few months ago? What has changed the mind of state lotteries?

My second point was about lotteries pressuring states to opt out to protect their stranglehold on state gaming revenue. Wouldnt your post indicate they are likely to do just that?

Third, if its so easy for lotteries to provide games across state lines without legislation, why wouldnt that apply to poker as well? I thought the DOJ authorized intrastate gaming at this point? Furthermore, why would states choose to invade each others territory rather than forming partnerships as they have with MegaMillions and Powerball type games?

If I was a lottery provider and had political clout, those incentives wouldnt be enough for me. I'd want a cut of the money generated, preferential market access, or guarantees on my take of state gambling revenue. Otherwise Id take my chances with the intrastate route, where I would definitely get a perferred competitive position in any legislation, and figure out how to most profitably expand from there.

Obviously a less winning-player friendly route, but why would I give a damn about that?
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Old 07-06-2012, 06:41 PM   #127
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
Skall, that's interesting analysis, but it it doesn't really address either of my two points.

It certainly seemed like, from comments made on here this Spring, the lotteries were a major factor in gumming up a potential attachment. So is there something in that analysis that wasn't there a few months ago? What has changed the mind of state lotteries?
The realization that if they want to get into online gaming other than their traditional role (selling tickets for the daily/weekly drawings) they are not going to have a monopoly on those games too unless the Feds give it to them. And the Feds are not inclined to give it to them (Kyl very much so).

Quote:
My second point was about lotteries pressuring states to opt out to protect their stranglehold on state gaming revenue. Wouldnt your post indicate they are likely to do just that?
Yes, if they see it costing them significant revenue. But online poker ALONE does not cost them revenue; online poker alone is not really even competition. And any small amount of lottery revenue lost will flow back to the state through other mechanisms.

Other online gambling is competition and is likely to cause a reduction in lottery revenue. So they can choose to compete in that market (ha-ha) or they can ask to have that market made illegal under most circumstances, or they can demand that their states get a portion of the revenue commensurate with what the lottery looses. But the one thing they wont get is a monopoly over the internet.

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Third, if its so easy for lotteries to provide games across state lines without legislation, why wouldnt that apply to poker as well? I thought the DOJ authorized intrastate gaming at this point? Furthermore, why would states choose to invade each others territory rather than forming partnerships as they have with MegaMillions and Powerball type games?
It is not easy, it requires BOTH states to have laws that allow the games. If Delaware wants to offer its games in Utah where there is zero legal gambling, too bad - doing so would be illegal.

But if Illinois has legal online slots then Delaware is not providing an illegal game, merely violating a protectionist law. States do not have the power to let one entity run a game (itself) and prohibit another entity from offering the same game simply because it is an out-of-state entity, that is the Dormant Commerce Clause in action.

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If I was a lottery provider and had political clout, those incentives wouldnt be enough for me. I'd want a cut of the money generated, preferential market access, or guarantees on my take of state gambling revenue. Otherwise Id take my chances with the intrastate route, where I would definitely get a perferred competitive position in any legislation, and figure out how to most profitably expand from there.

Obviously a less winning-player friendly route, but why would I give a damn about that?
Greedy people are greedy; they want it all. When the realize they can't have it all they look for what they can get or at least something that protects what they already have. State lottery monopolies are no different.

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Old 07-06-2012, 06:52 PM   #128
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

^^^

+1

It would be like hens lobbying for the fox to be the hen house guard.
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Old 07-06-2012, 07:33 PM   #129
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

So have lotteries actually changed their viewpoint or is this a theory as to why lotteries might support a bill? I thought TE said no but Skall said yes? I don't find this a compelling case for lotteries to support a bill, nor do I think they are going to view poker as "different" when pushing for opt outs, so curious if this is just a new pitch or if lotteries are on board.

Edit: I'm really skeptical of dcc arguments on this as well given our smack down in the Washington courts, and I don't see why lotteries would compete with each other rather than collude as monopolies for online lottery-type games.
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Old 07-06-2012, 07:59 PM   #130
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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PPA, meet the bed you've made. Congrats.
I can't imagine what sort of logic is behind this post. Come on, Lirva. You know better than this.
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Old 07-06-2012, 08:00 PM   #131
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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You are right. You are so right that even the lobbyists and congressional staffers also realize you are right. No bill that only benefits Nevada is going to get passed.

A bill may get passed that benefits the Nevada interests if it also has something for other interests. That something may be access to certain new areas denied before, that something may be denial of access for everyone to certain new areas that would otherwise compete with existing interests.

Its a tough deal to create. It was too tough to get done in the short time frame between the 2010 election and the 2011 new Congress. But Reid and Kyl and their staff and the lobbyists for the various interests have been working hard at the deal since that time.

Pappas said he thinks the deal is basically done and I do not know anyone with better "inside the beltway" information on this issue than John Pappas.

The terms of the deal will become public when Reid and Kyl want them to become public, and so far few of the details have been leaked. But the grand scheme is public knowledge: Interstate poker gets allowed (subject to individual state approval) with NV interests having a bit of a head start but other states able to get on board; other casino games are prohibited interstate; tribes get to participate in poker and preserve their exclusivity regarding other casino games without new state deals; states get to control most of what goes on intrastate with certain limitations but those limitations will still allow state lotteries some expanded access and some protection from out of state competition; small casinos and tribes are protected from new online competition in the area that matters most, access to online slots, and are given other ways to have a presence online.

And ... oh wait, if I want to add more I will have betray confidences. I should do that right, and perhaps jeopardize the whole deal because then maybe DQ will stop calling me names ... LOL, even if that mattered to me for a fraction of a second we all know DQ is incapable of curing his skallagrim fixation. DQ's fixation is so great he apparently hasn't realized that I never respond to him directly. Or perhaps he knows he can ask questions that I will not respond to so that then he can complain that I did not respond. He enjoys that sort of thing it appears.

Also, I do not know that many confidences or details. The big players are keeping this close to the vest for a reason. And the probable reason is, as is the case with most legislation these days, they want to present it as "done deal" so as to precisely avoid further picking at the deal by outsiders like those who, for example, hope to gain financial advantage from selling online casino marketing software and strategy to state lottery commissions.

Skallagrim
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Old 07-06-2012, 08:29 PM   #132
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by Skallagrim View Post
You are right. You are so right that even the lobbyists and congressional staffers also realize you are right. No bill that only benefits Nevada is going to get passed.

A bill may get passed that benefits the Nevada interests if it also has something for other interests. That something may be access to certain new areas denied before, that something may be denial of access for everyone to certain new areas that would otherwise compete with existing interests.

Its a tough deal to create. It was too tough to get done in the short time frame between the 2010 election and the 2011 new Congress. But Reid and Kyl and their staff and the lobbyists for the various interests have been working hard at the deal since that time.

Pappas said he thinks the deal is basically done and I do not know anyone with better "inside the beltway" information on this issue than John Pappas.

The terms of the deal will become public when Reid and Kyl want them to become public, and so far few of the details have been leaked. But the grand scheme is public knowledge: Interstate poker gets allowed (subject to individual state approval) with NV interests having a bit of a head start but other states able to get on board; other casino games are prohibited interstate; tribes get to participate in poker and preserve their exclusivity regarding other casino games without new state deals; states get to control most of what goes on intrastate with certain limitations but those limitations will still allow state lotteries some expanded access and some protection from out of state competition; small casinos and tribes are protected from new online competition in the area that matters most, access to online slots, and are given other ways to have a presence online.

And ... oh wait, if I want to add more I will have betray confidences. I should do that right, and perhaps jeopardize the whole deal because then maybe DQ will stop calling me names ... LOL, even if that mattered to me for a fraction of a second we all know DQ is incapable of curing his skallagrim fixation. DQ's fixation is so great he apparently hasn't realized that I never respond to him directly. Or perhaps he knows he can ask questions that I will not respond to so that then he can complain that I did not respond. He enjoys that sort of thing it appears.

Also, I do not know that many confidences or details. The big players are keeping this close to the vest for a reason. And the probable reason is, as is the case with most legislation these days, they want to present it as "done deal" so as to precisely avoid further picking at the deal by outsiders like those who, for example, hope to gain financial advantage from selling online casino marketing software and strategy to state lottery commissions.

Skallagrim

So basically no one knows if there's a deal,what's in the deal if there is one or how they plan on attaching it. So once again we're supposed to get our hopes up on a something that isn't very likely to happen.
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Old 07-06-2012, 08:57 PM   #133
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

Pappas & Skall know their stuff

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Old 07-06-2012, 09:38 PM   #134
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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So basically no one knows if there's a deal,what's in the deal if there is one or how they plan on attaching it. So once again we're supposed to get our hopes up on a something that isn't very likely to happen.
You're discounting the prospects of legislation passing because reid/kyl have not made a public announcement (which would obviously be counterproductive to its chances of passage)? Don't get your hopes up- nobody cares if you do.

The likelihood of a bill passing is impossible to quantify obviously, but the absence of a public announcement that a deal has been reached does not necessarily make it unlikely.
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Old 07-06-2012, 10:08 PM   #135
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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You're discounting the prospects of legislation passing because reid/kyl have not made a public announcement (which would obviously be counterproductive to its chances of passage)? Don't get your hopes up- nobody cares if you do.

The likelihood of a bill passing is impossible to quantify obviously, but the absence of a public announcement that a deal has been reached does not necessarily make it unlikely.
IMO, it most certainly does. This Congress can't seem to agree on anything. And after the election they are just gonna push a bill through that hasn't been vetted? I don't think so.
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Old 07-06-2012, 10:26 PM   #136
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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IMO, it most certainly does. This Congress can't seem to agree on anything. And after the election they are just gonna push a bill through that hasn't been vetted? I don't think so.
It's unlikely because it's an unpopular issue in a divided Congress. We don't really need to consider the existence of a "public announcement."

I'm not sure what the "vetting" process you are referring to is, but this is the sort of thing that happens when people make deals. I've heard from plenty of people that legislative drafts of a poker bill are being thrown around in a far more advanced form than just early guesswork on a statute.

I'm sure both of them know where their colleagues stand and what the bill will need to look like to reasonably pass. Reid runs the Senate and is arguably the 2nd most powerful democrat in DC.

Kyl, despite being sort of a "lame duck," is still powerful and is the party whip in the Senate. I'd easily say he's one of the most powerful people on the Hill had he not announced he's retiring after this year. Even given that, his opinion and wishes still demand attention.

All this said, I still think it's unlikely to pass this year. However, it's not impossible and I'd put my faith in what Skall is posting here. He's right about Pappas. Guy knows his stuff and is very good at what he does.

Remember, it's an election year, a lot is at stake and both parties are going to step carefully. Poker is not going to be a top priority. The balance of power in the Senate is up for grabs and, with the recent Obamacare ruling, the outcome of this election is seen as do or die by many on both sides.

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Old 07-06-2012, 10:54 PM   #137
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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You're discounting the prospects of legislation passing because reid/kyl have not made a public announcement (which would obviously be counterproductive to its chances of passage)? Don't get your hopes up- nobody cares if you do.

The likelihood of a bill passing is impossible to quantify obviously, but the absence of a public announcement that a deal has been reached does not necessarily make it unlikely.
I'm not discounting the prospects because they haven't made a public announcement. I'm discounting the prospects because there's too many parties with a vested interest in online gambling for there be some grand compromise that's worked out behind closed doors that will allow Reid to be successful in a lame duck attachment of his poker bill.

Sure it's theoretically possible that Reid/kyl has work out an agreement with states,lotteries,card rooms,big and small casinos,horse racing,etc and will have the votes he needs to get it done, it's just very unlikely at this point.

It may be possible down the road for an attachment(maybe by lame duck 2014?) but were not there this year. I'm not convinced the congress see a need to get involved yet but thy might at some point. If there's major problems with intrastate online gaming down the road and the feds decide to get involved then it could happen but not without serious debate on the matter.

When/if congress gets serious about online gaming we'll have a better idea of where we're headed but until then it's mostly just talk that isn't going anywhere, at least on the federal level.
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Old 07-06-2012, 11:49 PM   #138
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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I'm not discounting the prospects because they haven't made a public announcement. I'm discounting the prospects because there's too many parties with a vested interest in online gambling for there be some grand compromise that's worked out behind closed doors that will allow Reid to be successful in a lame duck attachment of his poker bill.

Sure it's theoretically possible that Reid/kyl has work out an agreement with states,lotteries,card rooms,big and small casinos,horse racing,etc and will have the votes he needs to get it done, it's just very unlikely at this point.

It may be possible down the road for an attachment(maybe by lame duck 2014?) but were not there this year. I'm not convinced the congress see a need to get involved yet but thy might at some point. If there's major problems with intrastate online gaming down the road and the feds decide to get involved then it could happen but not without serious debate on the matter.

When/if congress gets serious about online gaming we'll have a better idea of where we're headed but until then it's mostly just talk that isn't going anywhere, at least on the federal level.
In your opinion. Your opinion with no real facts to back it up other than the already recognized problem that this is a very divided Congress.

Yet a lot or people, many of those people with access to far more facts than you or I, are working very hard to make this happen.

It may not happen, but it is far from impossible. In that light you can choose to bet on it not happening, do nothing to help, and perhaps even tell others that they are wasting their time trying to make it happen. Or you can recognize the difficulties but find the cost of personally helping easily small enough to justify betting on success given the value of the possible winnings.

I think you know the choice I favor.

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Old 07-06-2012, 11:50 PM   #139
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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When/if congress gets serious about online gaming we'll have a better idea of where we're headed but until then it's mostly just talk that isn't going anywhere, at least on the federal level.
What are our metrics for knowing when they are serious? Might they be serious right now?
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Old 07-07-2012, 12:00 AM   #140
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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In your opinion. Your opinion with no real facts to back it up other than the already recognized problem that this is a very divided Congress.

Yet a lot or people, many of those people with access to far more facts than you or I, are working very hard to make this happen.

It may not happen, but it is far from impossible. In that light you can choose to bet on it not happening, do nothing to help, and perhaps even tell others that they are wasting their time trying to make it happen. Or you can recognize the difficulties but find the cost of personally helping easily small enough to justify betting on success given the value of the possible winnings.

I think you know the choice I favor.

Skallagrim
The problem is the people with more facts can only cry wolf so many times before no one believes they any more facts then then the rest of us.
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Old 07-07-2012, 12:06 AM   #141
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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What are our metrics for knowing when they are serious? Might they be serious right now?
They aren't there yet IMO. We'll know because there will be many more hearings about online gambling and follow-ups to hearings. Most of the hearings this congress just brought up more questions and potential problems, ones in which congress didn't want to spend the time on to address for w/e reason. As we start getting closer We'll hear talk about it in main stream media not just poker media. There's been movement in the right direction but not nearly enough.
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Old 07-07-2012, 12:18 AM   #142
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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I'm discounting the prospects because there's too many parties with a vested interest in online gambling for there be some grand compromise that's worked out behind closed doors that will allow Reid to be successful in a lame duck attachment of his poker bill.
Unless you have IRL experience or facts to back assertions like this up, you shouldn't just draw assumptions out of thin air because it suits your agenda against a certain person or group.

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Old 07-07-2012, 12:19 AM   #143
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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The problem is the people with more facts can only cry wolf so many times before no one believes they any more facts then then the rest of us.
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They aren't there yet IMO. We'll know because there will be many more hearings about online gambling and follow-ups to hearings. Most of the hearings this congress just brought up more questions and potential problems, ones in which congress didn't want to spend the time on to address for w/e reason. As we start getting closer We'll hear talk about it in main stream media not just poker media. There's been movement in the right direction but not nearly enough.
You just... have to be making this stuff up right?

I mean the amount of faith you put into the substantive value of hearings and what came out of them is pretty revealing about your grasp on how this machine actually operates.

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Old 07-07-2012, 12:29 AM   #144
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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You just... have to be making this stuff up right? Do you have an education studying how Congress works or experience working there? Or know people who do?

I mean the amount of faith you put into the substantive value of hearings and what came out of them is pretty revealing about your grasp on how this machine actually operates.

Posts like yours are very harmful to "the cause."
This coming from the guy who thinks Reid can just tack on a Federal online tax and licensing scheme without anyone noticing as though it were a ban on self-rolled cigarettes?

+1 Nova, California (where almost 40% of pre-BF poker players live) has been debating and compromising for years and they can't even get a bill out of committee, and the problems they are dealing with (tribes, horseracing, lottery, etc) are the same but magnified on the federal level.

The fact that we haven't heard about any compromises on a federal bill means it's likely further off than what Pappas called a 'mess' in California.
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Old 07-07-2012, 12:31 AM   #145
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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This coming from the guy who thinks Reid can just tack on a Federal online tax and licensing scheme without anyone noticing as though it were a ban on self-rolled cigarettes?
I'm sorry, but I think you have the wrong person. I've barely posted on this forum in the past year, much less said anything like that. I haven't even seen the term "federal online tax and licensing scheme" before and certainly haven't said it.

I obviously would never believe that, especially when we peer towards the house side (considering Boehner and, potentially more importantly, Cantor). You could figure that out from the context of my above posts (you know, where I call it "very unlikely"), but that must be too difficult. Random attacks against the people who are actually trying to help you guys out are the way to go. Skall and I have clashed very publicly in this forum before. I'm certainly not here to just be his apologist.

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Old 07-07-2012, 12:36 AM   #146
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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You just... have to be making this stuff up right?

I mean the amount of faith you put into the substantive value of hearings and what came out of them is pretty revealing about your grasp on how this machine actually operates.
I have a pretty good idea about how this stuff works online poker isn't my first go around pushing an issue to lawmakers. Perhaps that why I'm bitter to whole process and where we stand right on a federal bill.

It's not that I think hearings themselves will produce the "finial" result. It's pretty obv though that much still needs to worked out before the majority of congresscritters are simply going to hand Reid his online poker bill come the lame duck.
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Old 07-07-2012, 12:37 AM   #147
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

You really think the hearings on this issue are actually integral to how policy is made?

Have you ever heard the term "check the box" hearing? Do you know how much time each senator gets, and how much stock they put in the response to hearing questions? Do you know how witnesses are selected? Do you know how the written follow-ups work?
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Old 07-07-2012, 01:04 AM   #148
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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I'm sorry, but I think you have the wrong person. I've barely posted on this forum in the past year, much less said anything like that. I haven't even seen the term "federal online tax and licensing scheme" before and certainly haven't said it.

I obviously would never believe that, especially when we peer towards the house side (considering Boehner and, potentially more importantly, Cantor). You could figure that out from the context of my above posts (you know, where I call it "very unlikely"), but that must be too difficult. Random attacks against the people who are actually trying to help you guys out are the way to go. Skall and I have clashed very publicly in this forum before. I'm certainly not here to just be his apologist.

Sorry, I did have the wrong person, but I do find questioning the education/credentials of anyone that disagrees distasteful.
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Old 07-07-2012, 01:05 AM   #149
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

Karak, I get that hearings are a dog a pony show and aren't going to solve most of the issues with a bill or answer most questions. IMO,The hearings we did have did raise more questions and potential problems with moving a bill though. There's much more at play in all of this then anything brought up in hearings.

States,lotteries,tribes,casinos, and that's just the tip of the iceberg are fighting for their little piece of online gaming. None of the big issues have been resolved yet and aren't going to be by the end of the year. I really hope Reid/kyl can manage to "get it done" but I see no reason to believe they can this year.
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Old 07-07-2012, 01:05 AM   #150
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
What are our metrics for knowing when they are serious? Might they be serious right now?
Seriousness Above Replacement...obv.
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