Why Can't Pokerstars Re-Enter the US Market Containment Thread

[jackaaron2012]

Originally Posted by lawdude

My prediction is PokerStars never gets a US license.

It's true that theoretically, settlements can put it in a position to apply for a license. In practice, the licenses will be granted by political appointees and the argument that the Stars people gained their market share by "lawbreaking" is going to have a lot of power with a typical regulator. (Especially given it will be incumbent, important, campaign contributor corporation such as Harrah's pushing that argument.)

I realize it's a lot of IFS, but it seems that IF Stars were to pay off all fines, etc., do the deal with DOJ completely, signed, etc., AND they were to become a US based business....then, they could eventually offer online poker globally. I don't see how we could even turn away a billion dollar business from coming over here.

[lawdude]

Originally Posted by jackaaron2012

I realize it's a lot of IFS, but it seems that IF Stars were to pay off all fines, etc., do the deal with DOJ completely, signed, etc., AND they were to become a US based business....then, they could eventually offer online poker globally. I don't see how we could even turn away a billion dollar business from coming over here.

Actually, the tendency of political appointees is towards protectionism anyway. The only reason we don't have more of it is that we have trade rules that discourage it.

Bear in mind that the effect of UIGEA and BF was pecisely to send some billion dollar businesses away.

The major US players are likely to keep their distance from Stars. It will be one or more US companies with no past history in spreading online poker to US players during the UIGEA era that get any licenses.