White House View on Online Poker (May 18, 2012)

[sba9630]

Originally Posted by rizeagainst

Sorry, but how are these 2 sentences linked? The petition is solely about online poker, not about sports betting. What a complete non sequitur.

"The Administration understands that many Americans engage in paid online poker games for entertainment purposes. Now we're going to bring up something separate from online poker entirely for no apparent reason."

That was the first thing that came to mind when I read the statement.

Then I tried to figure out a possible reason for including the words "... for entertainment purposes ...". The sentence would have been fine without it:

"The Administration understands that many Americans engage in paid online poker games."

I'll put down the tea leaves now.

[jack frost]

Originally Posted by PokerXanadu

Seems to me this means:




2. The Obama administration would support federal online gambling legislation that helps to establish regulatory frameworks and enforcement against unlicensed online gambling and related illegal activities.

Pretty much a green light for either the state-by-state path or the federal legislation path to online poker in the US.

I saw no where in that response that gave me that impression and I think it's a pretty far fetch from what was written to come to that conclusion. This was clearly a middle of the line take no stance response.

Originally Posted by TheEngineer

We've not seen that an attachment is a low probability,

I strongly disagree! In fact we saw that it IS a low probability

Originally Posted by TheEngineer

nor have we seen that we are massive underdogs.

We might not be massive under dogs but we sure aren't far from it. I know I said this a long time ago in the PL forum and I haven't been posting much recent but I'm going to say this again every time players are built up into thinking something could be close and then it doesn't happen the more players we will lose in sending in letters, etc...

It's kind of like crying wolf the more people get let down the more they are going to convince themselves "why bother" I don't think it's wise to put on like this coming lame duck is a good shot for us when no one is sure and in fact there are many articles recently from several different credible sources saying that it isn't very likely to happen this year.

I think it's great that you and the PPA are optimistic and that you work your butt off on the DAP and other things of the sort but giving people false hope could hurt us more than help.

[LetsGambool]

Nice job everyone who signed the petition by the way. The White House having to make a public statement regarding online poker/gambling is a nice step in the right direction.

BTW, I'll give 2-1 odds to anyone who wants to bet on an online poker licensing bill passing this Congress for up to $2K.

Given its a poker forum, Ive made offers like this a number of times, and Ive gotten exactly zero $$ in action i feel confident in saying that our odds are under 33%.

TE, you can hit me on any or all of that action with all proceds from either side going to the PPA (the org itself, not the PAC, which Im restricted from donating to now for job related reasons anyways). I wouldnt require an escrow on that, your word is good.

[Go Get It]

Originally Posted by LetsGambool

Nice job everyone who signed the petition by the way. The White House having to make a public statement regarding online poker/gambling is a nice step in the right direction.

BTW, I'll give 2-1 odds to anyone who wants to bet on an online poker licensing bill passing this Congress for up to $2K.

Given its a poker forum, Ive made offers like this a number of times, and Ive gotten exactly zero $$ in action i feel confident in saying that our odds are under 33%.

TE, you can hit me on any or all of that action with all proceds from either side going to the PPA (the org itself, not the PAC, which Im restricted from donating to now for job related reasons anyways). I wouldnt require an escrow on that, your word is good.

So you're taking the side of we get Ipoker passed in D.C by congress in 2012, and you're laying odds?

[Thew92]

The Administration will continue to examine this issue and is open to solutions that would help guard against the use of online gambling sites as tools for conducting illegal activities or preying on unsuspecting individuals to the extent that online gambling is permitted.

This looks like a green light to me?

[LetsGambool]

Originally Posted by Go Get It

So you're taking the side of we get Ipoker passed in D.C by congress in 2012, and you're laying odds?

No I'm offering odds to anyone who wants that side (early 2013 technically).

[TheEngineer]

Originally Posted by jack frost

I strongly disagree! In fact we saw that it IS a low probability

Not at all. Even something with a 95% probability fails 5% of the time. The fact that we've not yet seen this does not mean it's low probability. It simply means it did not happen yet.

We might not be massive under dogs but we sure aren't far from it. I know I said this a long time ago in the PL forum and I haven't been posting much recent but I'm going to say this again every time players are built up into thinking something could be close and then it doesn't happen the more players we will lose in sending in letters, etc...

It's kind of like crying wolf the more people get let down the more they are going to convince themselves "why bother" I don't think it's wise to put on like this coming lame duck is a good shot for us when no one is sure and in fact there are many articles recently from several different credible sources saying that it isn't very likely to happen this year.

I think it's great that you and the PPA are optimistic and that you work your butt off on the DAP and other things of the sort but giving people false hope could hurt us more than help.

I post the information as I get it to share it with the community. I won't bias it up to give people a false sense of hope, nor will I bias it down to downplay expectations. I simply provide the info I have to the community.

We really were around a coin flip with the Reid bill in late 2010. Unfortunately, a coin flip is far from a certainty and we ended up on the wrong side of it (except for the people here who wanted it to fail...they won).

This year, we have the DoJ ruling (which puts a short clock on this), a unified poker community, and the momentum of continued lobbying. Opponents know that no federal legislation means state lottery instant online scratch-offs. Tribal interests know this as well.

I'm not guaranteeing anything. I'm saying we're a slight underdog to even money to get this by the end of 2012.

[TheEngineer]

Originally Posted by LetsGambool

Nice job everyone who signed the petition by the way. The White House having to make a public statement regarding online poker/gambling is a nice step in the right direction.

BTW, I'll give 2-1 odds to anyone who wants to bet on an online poker licensing bill passing this Congress for up to $2K.

Given its a poker forum, Ive made offers like this a number of times, and Ive gotten exactly zero $$ in action i feel confident in saying that our odds are under 33%.

TE, you can hit me on any or all of that action with all proceds from either side going to the PPA (the org itself, not the PAC, which Im restricted from donating to now for job related reasons anyways). I wouldnt require an escrow on that, your word is good.

Thanks, but if we win, I think donations will be forthcoming. If we lose, I'll probably wish to hang onto the $2K.

[LetsGambool]

It doesnt have to be all or nothing, but cool either way. With the overlay Im offering vs. the true odds of slight underdog to even money Im sure there will be other action.

[Go Get It]

Originally Posted by LetsGambool

No I'm offering odds to anyone who wants that side (early 2013 technically).

I thought I was reading that wrong.

[Mark275]

so stars back in USA 1 time? if so when

[Fouad]

Originally Posted by jack frost

We might not be massive under dogs but we sure aren't far from it. I know I said this a long time ago in the PL forum and I haven't been posting much recent but I'm going to say this again every time players are built up into thinking something could be close and then it doesn't happen the more players we will lose in sending in letters, etc...

It's kind of like crying wolf the more people get let down the more they are going to convince themselves "why bother"

I think it's great that you and the PPA are optimistic and that you work your butt off on the DAP and other things of the sort

This is Kevinb1983. I no longer have that handle from losing my email associated with it but I just wanted to chime in and say this is pretty much exactly how I feel. I've had numerous real life problems recently and with the rising of expectations, only to be let down in the end, it has massively dissuaded me from further participation or even forum activity. Just wanted to throw this out there because while I could certainly be an outlier, I'm not so sure I am.

[TheEngineer]

Originally Posted by Fouad

This is Kevinb1983. I no longer have that handle from losing my email associated with it

The thread for that is at What should users do if they don't have their account email? (SEE OP!). The IP addresses for the two accounts do match, so getting you squared away shouldn't be too hard. Just post the issue on that thread (I'll reply with the IP search results) and follow the instructions in that thread OP.

but I just wanted to chime in and say this is pretty much exactly how I feel. I've had numerous real life problems recently and with the rising of expectations, only to be let down in the end, it has massively dissuaded me from further participation or even forum activity. Just wanted to throw this out there because while I could certainly be an outlier, I'm not so sure I am.

It's certainly been a long, tough fight. I've been in it for six years day in and day out, which certainly wasn't my plan going in. Unfortunately, there's no easy answer. I could downplay our real chances to prevent potential letdown, but I won't lie to everyone here. I've never done it and I won't start now. I provide the data and leave it to everyone make the decisions based on that.

Pocket aces are a preflop favorite over all other hands. That does not mean they always win. When they lose, it does not mean that they were not the preflop favorite.

Disaster preparedness officials run into the same problem. People are warned to leave their homes when a hurricane is on the way. When those houses don't get hit, some homeowners complain about having to leave.

Anyway, I've done a lot of posting here to remind everyone that this has always been a tough fight. I don't know how anyone could read my posts and think I believe this is easy or is a done deal.

[vicnice]

Originally Posted by Fouad

This is Kevinb1983. I no longer have that handle from losing my email associated with it but I just wanted to chime in and say this is pretty much exactly how I feel. I've had numerous real life problems recently and with the rising of expectations, only to be let down in the end, it has massively dissuaded me from further participation or even forum activity. Just wanted to throw this out there because while I could certainly be an outlier, I'm not so sure I am.

I hear ya. I was real discouraged and then got so busy with my primary job and other stuff that I pretty much gave up completely for a couple months. I'm going to try to get back on it over the summer months.

[LetsGambool]

This is a multi-decade fight to get back to the glory days guys. Even after we pass a Federal bill, we have to win 50 opt-in battles, then fight for better tax treatment at both the Federal and state level, then fight for international pooling so we can get back to the player choice we had until Black Friday. Progress is being made, just slower than we'd all like.

The flip side of we can be a 95/5 favorite and fail is we can be 5/95 and have everything line up politically and succeed one year. Plus, states are getting into the game. That's a longer road to where we want to get to, but its in the right direction.

IMO, the best thing to do is plan your life as if you have no US internet poker access for the next 5-10 years but keep fighting to shorten that timetable.