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Old 07-04-2012, 12:07 PM   #76
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by TheEngineer View Post
^^^
I understand Bayes theorem just fine. My point is that you evaluated the probability not with the information available at the time, but by pointing to outcomes.

Also, not sure when you thought I gave the Frank bill a great chance of passing. I recall telling people here that the content of the bill was largely irrelevant, as its real use for us was to use as a platform to reach out to Congress with advocacy efforts and to get hearings on the Hill.
Lol. Bayes theorem, how does it work?
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Old 07-04-2012, 02:32 PM   #77
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

^^^
LOL. I'm an engineer and was a Six Sigma Black Belt at GE. Asking me that is like asking, "LOL. Stress in a beam, how is it calculated?"

So far, I've stated that we had one event that was a coin flip....the 2010 lame duck session. We have a second coming up and will see how that goes.
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Old 07-04-2012, 02:52 PM   #78
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Of course it is. Ive never gotten a sniff of action at even money or even 2-1 whenever Ive offered it on this forum. Even TE wont take 2-1.

If you told me after midterms in '10 that we could have a 1 in 20 shot of getting this passed Id have been ecstatic. We're probably a little bit better than that, so a much better sweat than I expected.
I'll take 2-1, with the loser donating the money either to PPA or to PokerPAC.

Let's do it with a base wager of $500, such that I'll donate $500 if legislation does not pass in the 2012 lame duck session and you'll donate $1,000 if it does. Deal?
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Old 07-04-2012, 05:55 PM   #79
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

I don't see anyone has mentioned the "fiscal cliff" - the combination of sequestration and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts - supposedly coming if Congress doesn't act by the end of the year. This should give us a real chance at a vehicle on which we can hitch a ride.
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Old 07-04-2012, 06:15 PM   #80
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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I'll take 2-1, with the loser donating the money either to PPA or to PokerPAC.

Let's do it with a base wager of $500, such that I'll donate $500 if legislation does not pass in the 2012 lame duck session and you'll donate $1,000 if it does. Deal?
I can't donate to PokerPac, you can PM for details, its a work related restriction. i should be able to donate to the PPA directly, but i have to clear donations going forward with my compliance officer. if not I will get the $$$ to you directly. You dont need to escrow your word is good.

Bet is defined as a bill authorizing federally regulated online poker by the end of this congress 1/13. regulatory power lies with the states but it's still an interstate licensing bill, you win on that too.
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Old 07-04-2012, 06:16 PM   #81
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by TheEngineer View Post
^^^
LOL. I'm an engineer and was a Six Sigma Black Belt at GE. Asking me that is like asking, "LOL. Stress in a beam, how is it calculated?"

So far, I've stated that we had one event that was a coin flip....the 2010 lame duck session. We have a second coming up and will see how that goes.
I know, that's why I was surprised to see you not understand.
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Old 07-04-2012, 06:32 PM   #82
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by tangled View Post
I don't see anyone has mentioned the "fiscal cliff" - the combination of sequestration and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts - supposedly coming if Congress doesn't act by the end of the year. This should give us a real chance at a vehicle on which we can hitch a ride.
To me it's like the debt ceiling, going to be a real hard slog as it is to get a compromise. Unless it ends up being Obama caving to a full extension of the bush tax cuts for the wealthy and higher defense spending where social conservatives would be hard pressed to kill it...just hard to see this attaching to any compromise that will pass with thin margins.

We need something that needs to get done and that will pass by a huge margin, preferably a Republican priority.
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Old 07-04-2012, 07:07 PM   #83
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by tangled View Post
I don't see anyone has mentioned the "fiscal cliff" - the combination of sequestration and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts - supposedly coming if Congress doesn't act by the end of the year. This should give us a real chance at a vehicle on which we can hitch a ride.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
To me it's like the debt ceiling, going to be a real hard slog as it is to get a compromise. Unless it ends up being Obama caving to a full extension of the bush tax cuts for the wealthy and higher defense spending where social conservatives would be hard pressed to kill it...just hard to see this attaching to any compromise that will pass with thin margins.

We need something that needs to get done and that will pass by a huge margin, preferably a Republican priority.
This is what I was getting at earlier. Once the votes are in and the next president is determined, both sides are going to be much more willing to compromise. I just don't see either side sabotaging the economy for 4 more years. The fiscal cliff will be dealt with.

Finding a vehicle won't be a problem. It's getting the bill written that is satisfactory to the key players that is the tough part.

This was the first article that came up on Google, but there was another (somewhere in this forum) that had and even longer list.

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbyi...ring-lame-duck

Quote:
Big-ticket items — including the expiring Bush tax rates, budget sequestration and an increase in the debt ceiling — will have to be dealt with by Dec. 31.
Quote:
It’s the lame duck to end all lame ducks
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Old 07-04-2012, 10:52 PM   #84
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

If they can come to a grand bargain supported by a large majority, that would be great for us. I think the most likely outcome is Obama with an r house and senate, which will make that tough
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Old 07-04-2012, 11:23 PM   #85
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

It all comes down to how much support(votes) Reid/Kyl can muster for their bill. There's just too many unanswered questions about why,how, and if the federal gov should regulate online gambling. Add to that all the special interests from the states,lotteries,casinos,tribes,horse racing,etc and there's no way reid/kyl can simply sneak in a bill without anyone noticing.

Reid/Kyl wont/can't attach a bill unless they have the numbers to support it and they will not have the numbers without the issue being fully debated and all the issues and interests having a say and compromises being worked out. This isn't the kind of issue that can simply be attached at this point in time, maybe it can be down the road but more work will need to be done before that is a reality.
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Old 07-05-2012, 12:44 AM   #86
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by ScreaminAsian View Post

I wish you'd warned me about that gif. I nearly choked to death on my own saliva. Good LORD. LOLOLOLOLOLOL. Thank you so much, honestly
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:26 AM   #87
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

I like talking about potential vehicles and the political environment a lot more than these silly abstract arguments about what % we had to pass 2 years ago.

There is plenty of constructive things we can be talking about instead of acting like 9 year olds imo.

So...what are the big bills moving forward this holiday season? Are there things I should be communicating to my lawmakers concerning the lame duck specifically?
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:31 AM   #88
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
I can't donate to PokerPac, you can PM for details, its a work related restriction. i should be able to donate to the PPA directly, but i have to clear donations going forward with my compliance officer. if not I will get the $$$ to you directly. You dont need to escrow your word is good.

Bet is defined as a bill authorizing federally regulated online poker by the end of this congress 1/13. regulatory power lies with the states but it's still an interstate licensing bill, you win on that too.
Per our PMs, we're good to go.

Needless to say, if I lose, the $500 will be least of my concerns both personally and with regard to this fight. After all, I've devoted a lot to this over the past six years. So, let's all do our part to push forward toward victory in 2012.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:43 AM   #89
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

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Originally Posted by LetsGambool View Post
I know, that's why I was surprised to see you not understand.
You can't use Bayes theorem to pretty up an outcome-based critique. You have to stick with the data available at the time of the decision. Otherwise, it's the same underlying unsubstantiated argument with a pseudo analysis affixed to it like a cheap facade.
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Old 07-05-2012, 01:54 AM   #90
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Re: Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

The problem with political coin flips is the same as literal coin flips; we expect a random result but the coin has a bias towards landing back in it's original position, so in politics saying something is a coinflip actually means the odds are against us - we need to be favorites before getting our hopes up.
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