Originally Posted by TheEngineer
I don't spin anything. Just because you have a different opinion doesn't mean everyone else is spinning things. I expect you to take that back.
It is called scotoma. The mind sees what it wants to see.
Okay, you weren't spinning it. You believe that there was a coinflip chance in 2010 of passing the federal legislation in 2010. I don't. It failed, by how much is academic. The votes were not there. Only results count in passing legislation.
(This is not to denigrate the cuumulative effect of the effort, which both bolstered efforts at the State level and contributed to actual results at the State level. The legislative process has on many issues moved from legislating at the States to DC passing laws in the name of a "need for a national market". I just don't think that has "gelled" or ,as Rep. Barton put it, I don't think that the moment is "right".0
I actually think there is a greater lame duck chance this time around in 2012, than there was in 2010, but less than 50%, way less.
Kyl: I think bringing a hammer down on the Wire Act is something Kyl can retire with, but the casino v. poker issue remains devisive of potnetial support for legislation. He gets to "fix" the DOJ 2011 Letter, probably take a swing at anything else not strictly intrastate, and hit at sports and "unlicensed" online gaming.
Nevada: There is an good angle for Nevada to shoot however, protection of its "resort/casino" status, while looking to online poker to cross-market that B&M gaming/entertainment channel. I think MGM and maybe Caesars wants more however. HOWEVER,
if Sheldon Adelson is willing to go with the poker-only model, with marketing benefits for his Nevada B&M ops, then there MIGHT be real progress.
Opposition strength/real inrterests: Ironically, Sheldon Adelson, whose brand obtained an online gaming license from Alderney in 2003, holds the key to the House scheduling any vote to attach whatever is 'ready" to come over from the Senate. Adelson's perception of poker only as both non-threatening to his beliefs and advamtageous to his Nevada investments is key. (If someone could tie the health of the Israeli economy to online gaming, that might also help ?)
The Clock: I accept the charcterization that a deal actually is "doable" if the votes ARE there in the House, I just think the climate will be too contentious the "attachment" process will be exhausted for other favorite issues, and the clock will run.
Doable, in theory, if Adelson/Cantor allows it, but coordination of such an effort between the Senate Dems and the House Republicans seems unlikely, given the enormous number of actually contentious bills to get done in the wake of an assuredly acrimonious November election.