Pappas believes Reid/Kyl bill is written, waiting for the right time/vehicle

[TheEngineer]

Originally Posted by TheDarkElf

"It is called scotoma. The mind sees what it wants to see."

You think Reid and the others went through the effort for something with no chance?

[TheEngineer]

Originally Posted by DonkeyQuixote

Rich is just spinning a couple of changes in the landscape

I don't spin anything. Just because you have a different opinion doesn't mean everyone else is spinning things. I expect you to take that back.

That's all water under the bridge, there was nevera 50/50 chance of passage in 2010, there IS a smaller chance of passage of what I'll call a Federal State-enabling bill in 2013 and, perhaps a 5% chance in 2012.

It is called scotoma. The mind sees what it wants to see.

(Rich even gave me a PPA patch I declined to wear on camera), the meeting was very well run and informative.

FYP

Good job to the folks who planned and executed the Town Hall.

Thanks

[ScreaminAsian]

[novahunterpa]

Originally Posted by TheEngineer

You think Reid and the others went through the effort for something with no chance?

By keeping hope alive he still gets those big fat donations coming in even if he knows there's little chance of his bill passing.

I really hope he can get a bill done but I'm sure if he doesn't the process will start all over again with a new congress with one or two bills being introduced in the house and maybe the Senate that will never pass.

Early in 2013 we'll hear about some bill being proposed by someone(Barton?) then we'll hear about how Pappas, Loveman,AGA,etc believe the best chance is it passing by the spring 2013 and it's the best chance we ever had. Of course when spring 2013 comes and goes without a bill passing they all talks about end of summer early fall is the time as something delayed the spring optimism. They may be a hearing or two but fall will pass with no real momentum then they all talk about it looks good for winter time, sometime in December or January and it could get attached to the Alien Invasion bill or w/e. But it wont just like the last several years. Then The talk will be about how 2014 is the year but nothing much moves with the proposed bills so then they'll all talk about lame duck 2014 as when something will be attached. Rinse and repeat.

[mapleleaf]

Originally Posted by novahunterpa

Early in 2013 we'll hear about some bill being proposed ... Rinse and repeat.

Kind of like how UIGEA took 10 years to pass. We're at 6 years now for federal regulation of iPoker and I think we'll beat 10 years by a bit.

[mapleleaf]

Originally Posted by tamiller866

Reid can do anything he wants, as long as this administration is in office, internet gaming will be in the hands of State government ...

PPA: Lame duck session only hope for U.S. online poker

A lame duck session push for online poker legislation could be complicated if Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney wins the election.

"Some social conservatives could feel empowered [by a Romney win]," Pappas said.

[tamiller866]

^^^^
Since I'm saying I disagree with Pappas et al, I don't see the point in pasting his comments, the PPA continues to maintain the belief that Obama is just a rubber stamp for whatever Reid pushes through, but as Nelson Rose said when the OLC was announced, "online gambling was a Christmas gift to the states".

Unless there is an alien invasion or zombie uprising that provokes a must pass response from Congress that Reid can attach his bill to, which POTUS could never veto, then a (NV biased) bill that he would actually be willing to attach has no shot in this year.

If I lose the bet it will be because Reid finally accepts that this President isn't going to hand online poker to Nevada, and would rather try to compete in an open market than see California fenced in, but I'm willing to gamble on his lack of pragmatism.

[LastLife]

Ivestors jump on the Pappas bandwagon. Playtech shares soar 10000%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PTEC.L

[tamiller866]

LOL, Playtech would likely do better without federal regulation, since they have lottery partnerships.

[LetsGambool]

I see Charlie Brown is lining up to kick the football again.

[DonkeyQuixote]

Originally Posted by TheEngineer

I don't spin anything. Just because you have a different opinion doesn't mean everyone else is spinning things. I expect you to take that back.



It is called scotoma. The mind sees what it wants to see.



FYP



Thanks

Okay, you weren't spinning it. You believe that there was a coinflip chance in 2010 of passing the federal legislation in 2010. I don't. It failed, by how much is academic. The votes were not there. Only results count in passing legislation.

(This is not to denigrate the cuumulative effect of the effort, which both bolstered efforts at the State level and contributed to actual results at the State level. The legislative process has on many issues moved from legislating at the States to DC passing laws in the name of a "need for a national market". I just don't think that has "gelled" or ,as Rep. Barton put it, I don't think that the moment is "right".0

I actually think there is a greater lame duck chance this time around in 2012, than there was in 2010, but less than 50%, way less.

Kyl: I think bringing a hammer down on the Wire Act is something Kyl can retire with, but the casino v. poker issue remains devisive of potnetial support for legislation. He gets to "fix" the DOJ 2011 Letter, probably take a swing at anything else not strictly intrastate, and hit at sports and "unlicensed" online gaming.

Nevada: There is an good angle for Nevada to shoot however, protection of its "resort/casino" status, while looking to online poker to cross-market that B&M gaming/entertainment channel. I think MGM and maybe Caesars wants more however. HOWEVER, if Sheldon Adelson is willing to go with the poker-only model, with marketing benefits for his Nevada B&M ops, then there MIGHT be real progress.

Opposition strength/real inrterests: Ironically, Sheldon Adelson, whose brand obtained an online gaming license from Alderney in 2003, holds the key to the House scheduling any vote to attach whatever is 'ready" to come over from the Senate. Adelson's perception of poker only as both non-threatening to his beliefs and advamtageous to his Nevada investments is key. (If someone could tie the health of the Israeli economy to online gaming, that might also help ?)

The Clock: I accept the charcterization that a deal actually is "doable" if the votes ARE there in the House, I just think the climate will be too contentious the "attachment" process will be exhausted for other favorite issues, and the clock will run.

Doable, in theory, if Adelson/Cantor allows it, but coordination of such an effort between the Senate Dems and the House Republicans seems unlikely, given the enormous number of actually contentious bills to get done in the wake of an assuredly acrimonious November election.

[VP$IP]

Nice post. And this part was especially poetic.

Originally Posted by DonkeyQuixote

in the wake of an assuredly acrimonious November election.

[LastLife]

(If someone could tie the health of the Israeli economy to online gaming, that might also help ?)

I think we just figured out why playtech is up 10000% today. Isreal based

[lilwhaldo]

Maybe we can pitch it to the casino interests that getting ipoker legalized is one more step towards getting other casino games legalized as well.

[DonkeyQuixote]

Originally Posted by LastLife

I think we just figured out why playtech is up 10000% today. Isreal based

LOL, are you sure ?

Today was the first day of trading on the major exchange.

The Yahoo site page on Playtech looks like it slipped a decimal point or three.

Reuters and Bloomberg's quotes are around up 1.2 %

Given Teddy Sagi's owning a reported 48%, I think we might need to reserve judgement on the basis for any stock run-up, if it is more than just moving toa broader market ..... but it was not likely anything John Pappas said.