Obama has a very good chance of winning. This letter though, was as close to political mumbo jumbo as mumbling and jumbling gets.

Sadly, she is palatable to far more than just the religious segment. On the surface she comes across very much like a hockey mom / soccer mom type. To many she 'seems likable' and that is enough (because they will never scratch much beyond the surface to learn of her extremism). She is fun to cheer for, has a certain charisma, and is easy on the eyes. Attractive is always palatable.

I read something lately about McCain having recently captured a larger segment of the white female vote. I remembered Obamas camp denying it, but it seems very plausible. This is the candidate that appears to represent every suburban mom out there (even if it is far from the truth).

My hope is that the Palin cheerleaders are more your casual political follower. The type that find themselves 'too busy' on election night and don't quite make it to the polls.

However, there is a segment rooting for her that are dying to cast their votes. There are quite few disillusioned Hillary fans who are pretty upset they missed their best chance yet to see a woman president. Yes, Hillary did endorse Obama, but I have a feeling that some of the fanaticism was less about Hillary, and more about seeing a woman President. To them, Palin as VP is the next best thing.

If Obama did what you want him to do, he would lose the election. Every word he says is being scrutinized and analyzed for spin opportunities by the McCain/Palin camp.

Take a look at how the McCain/Palin camp called a press conference within minutes of Obama's folksy "lipstick on a pig" statement that McCain himself has uttered many times. Apparently now that Palin used the "lipstick/pitbull" joke in her convention speech, the phrase "lipstick on a pig" is off-limits and the M/P media footsoldiers are out and about creating a brouhaha, implying that Obama called Palin a pig, and demanding that Obama apologize to her.

How do you think the M/P camp would respond if Obama started making pro-poker statements? It wouldn't be too hard to find some hockey/soccer mom to make a tearful appearance on camera talking about her son who committed suicide because of online poker, followed by some DOJ flunkie talking about how drug dealers use the scourge of poker sites to launder money, etc etc....

According to the polls I have read, Obama is still the likely winner (barely) based on the Electorial College system; in other words, he may be slightly behind in the national average, but he is likely to win more states.

That said, Palin's popularity is very troubling to me. Again if the polls are right, about 18% of "white women" have switched from supporting Obama to supporting McCain (really Palin). TheScientist has already identified the many reasons that account for this switch. Whats troubling is that these 18% of white women obviously have no sense whatsoever about politics. They supported Obama before but will now vote McCain simply because he picked a women for VP who they can relate too - and what she actually stands for seems irrelevant (on issues typically considered important to women there cant be much greater difference than that between what Obama supports and what Palin supports).

And somebody said this election was supposed to put an end to identity politics?

If this holds up on election day the US gets an administration that the majority disagrees with on most issues but won anyway because it has a women on the ticket with a compelling life story (and so who cares about her wacky political views .... ). American Idol meets the White House.

Its really sad in so many ways.

Skallagrim

obama will shine in the debates, and surge in the polls, not even close to over imo.

This is my thought, too. It's hard to not get caught up in the horse race, but it's over in Nov, and a lot can happen. Palin is the flavor of the moment, but it's all show pony now. She hasn't been subjected to the kind of questioning she's going to get. They can't keep her sequestered forever. She may be tough, but the national press is tougher, and the mainstream media believes it is their job to do the vetting of Sarah Palin since McCain's camp failed miserably at it. (Not enough time, obv.) Anyone who doesn't shudder at least a little at someone coming out of the backwoods and becoming a potential President in 8 weeks is absolutely out of their minds. How she'll hold up will determine a lot about McCain's viability. Assuming he doesn't have the titanic meltdown that many predict. He's not a patient man, and he's already come close a couple of times.

The Democrats own the policy issues. The Republicans can only hope they can continue to cult of personality for 7 mre weeks. Good luck with that.

Obama needs to get his groove back.

CJ

such is the state of american politics. And the republicans get away with this crap because the democrats are sooo stupid when it comes to nominating and running campaigns. Anybody think the democrats would be in this mess right now with the palin surge if it was a Hillary/obama(as vp) ticket? Of course not, but the knee jerk liberals saw obama was more liberal and voted for him, hillary spent the last 8 years positioning herself to win the general election, obama spend the last 8 years positioning himself to win the democratic primary, and this is what you get.

Say what you want about republicans (and i do), but they are pretty damn good about nominating candidates that do well in elections on the big stage, and they placate the extremes with a 'wink and nod' (don't worry guys, he's just electable, you'll get your supreme court nominees and so on...)

wait until people figure out palin wants to push womens rights back 50 years. Abortion with no exception. so if youre daughter is raped, she keepin it or getting the death penalty for murder. She doesnt support stem cell research. She wants to teach our kids creationism in school, over my dead body.

we need to do everything possible to keep her out of office, shes bad news for everyone except the 26% that claim to be on the religious right.

It is indeed a sign of the Apocalypse that the One is slipping in the polls. Perhaps global warming has addled the minds of the electorate. Maybe O (yes, his celebrity has transcended mere words and he now refers to himself as just O (in the third party), though some times he calls himself 15 or quinze, as O is the 15th letter and of course he likes la langue francaise, n'est-ce pas) will decide that he needs to move further right and condemn all card and dice games and even free thought in order to compete. Alternatively, he could even spew some more invective about farm animals and beastiality instead of describing his true policies and objectives.

This is from http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ and it should auto update so that we can see it in real time. Bookmark this and refresh often as it is quite volatile.

For the EC current map look at:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update

isnt it a good thing that has a favorite?

Sit back and think of ALL the possible candidates for RVP. I'd imagine most of them would be miles ahead of Palin as far as experience/being qualified to be President should something happen to McCain.

Ever get that sick feeling when you're about to be runner runnered? Obama favored on the flop, McCain elected on the turn, McCain croaks on the river...

Apparently the 538 graph is not updating. Here is the revised graph. The velocity of O's decline is truly stunning and is approaching that of an unladen swallow (european, of course).

Betting exchanges are better predictors of election wins. McCain just passed out Obama at the one I follow.

Many of the players on Intrade source from 538, Drudge and CNN. This is the first time that McCain is a favorite.

Just like Johnny Cash, O is trending down, down, down in a buring ring of fire. Only in this case, the fire is in the form of the red tide sweeping over the polls. Oh, the humanity.



On the other hand, if O can blame the current administration for the financial mess, he can come back in the polls.

Rasmussen Reports has it
McCain 200
Obama - 193

and still has Obama ahead in Iowa - a Red state in the leaning column.

With leaners -
McCain 247
Obama - 259

Toss-up 32

This has remained constant even with the McCain surge, it's not about the number of votes but where they are.

Obama needs to win his leaning states and in the toss-up either:

1. Win Virginia
2. Win Colorado & New Mexico
3. Colorado & Nevada (unlikely NV, McCain is doing well here)
NV should be moved to GOP Leaning
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...college_update

obg

Obama now has an ad that features a gambling theme.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHazb4FAREE

Can you analyze the content of this new ad? It appears negative for gaming to me.

Also, check the dates on the Rasmussen polls. 538 uses all of the polls and weights for accuracy and time.

If O wants to make an issue out of online gaming, he should do it now. He is not going to offend anyone (or increase his negatives) by staking out the pro-gaming side as the anti-gaming side would never vote for him.

I don't know that too much can be read into it. But if anything can it isn't good.

Not much to read in, remember, McCain was widely denounced as being a pure gambler since his game of choice is Craps, though they should have has dice turning up 7's.

obg

Fortunately, the ring of fire seems to be running out of fuel.

Today:

It looks like the blame game is working quite well.

In all fairness guys, the graphs that had McCain winning were at the time Palin was introduced and the Convention was going on. Now that the euphoria has passed and the financial market crisis is back in focus, McCain is feeling the pain.

Palin may be one of the most polarizing figures in a long time. He may have gotten McCain a lot more votes, but I think she does best in the states that he was already going to win, therefore she may bring votes but no states (except Alaska).

I would wait until we've had a few debates before I really start putting a lot weight into the electoral maps.

I agree with all that as well. Palin was a fresh face who looks like middle America to many, while bringing conservatives back into the fold. I believe she'll continue to appeal to conservatives, but the bloom is starting to come off the rose otherwise.

Definitely true. If Obama sticks this one and at least gets a draw, I think things will look pretty good for him, given the current economic climate and Bush's approval ratings. And, Palin has been fairly weak in answering some easy questions. If she has a bad debate, especially with a memorable gaffe, the ticket will be damaged.