Florida
I'm nearly certain Florida will remain an opt-in state. The legislature is desperate every year to find new sources of revenue as the FL constitution requires a balanced budget.
However, there are some scenarios where FL might opt out. Specifically, if somehow a state legislative vote is required to determine whether or not the state opts out. In this case, the very strong pari-mutuel lobby will likely oppose remaining an opt in state, along with the anti-gambling expansion lobby. Also, in the case of such a legislative vote, the new Seminole compact may come into play. The compact specifies a change in terms if the legislature changes Florida law to allow Internet poker or gambling (
see this thread).
Part of the problem with predicting a state opt-in/opt-out is that the bill provision for opt outs is so muddled it is hard to make a prediction. The faults in the provision lie in:
1. How does a state determine an opt out? Is it the governor's decision? The legislature? The provision allows the governor to opt out by written notice, but doesn't necessarily imbue the governor, or any other entity, with the authority to make that decision.
2. The language of the provision is a mix of prohibition and limitation. It states that accepting bets or wagers from anyone in a state that opts out is forbidden, but the language of opting out is all about "limitation" on wagers by the state. I believe the provision is meant to give the option to each state to set limits on wagers (buy-in limits, wager caps, prohibited games, etc.).
I sure hope someone introduces an amendment during markup to clarify these points so that:
1. It takes an act of a state legislature to opt out.
2. The "limitation" language is removed, leaving only one choice for a state - opt out completely or remain opted in.